When one country turns hostile towards another country and there is a need for them to conduct talks, a mediator steps in between the parties, moving back and forth between the mediation venue’s rooms conveying the negotiation messages.
It is not the first time that Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev has played an intermediary role between Turkey and Israel. Currently it is a repeated task the Republic of Azerbaijan took upon itself as a mediator between Israel and the Republic of Türkiye (Turkey).
Israel-Turkey Relations
The crises in Israel-Turkey began with Recep Erdoğan, the 12th and current president of Turkey, who turned out to be Israel’s antagonist. Consequently, Israelis who for years made Turkey their main vacationing destination have abandoned the country altogether.
Israeli-Turkish relations have had their ups and downs over the years. Currently they have come to a total standstill, with bordering on hostile public statements from Erdoğan, including anti-Semitic speeches. He has openly said that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his government “are like Hitler.”
While the war between Israel and Hamas has been raging, in December 2024, the Turkish Ministry of Trade announced that the country will “halt all imports and exports to and from Israel until Israel agrees to a ceasefire and allows humanitarian aid to flow freely to Gaza.”
As part of the deteriorating relations, both Turkey and Israel have recalled their ambassadors. Turkey-Israel relations appear to be heading to a place they have never been before: a formal break in diplomatic relations.
However, October 7, 2023 proved to be another turning point. The break in relations attest that the Turks are full of self-confidence, and perhaps even more aggressive towards neighboring countries and are trying to change the status quo in the region.
The downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the ascendance of Turkish-backed rebels in Damascus, makes Turkey’s involvement in the Middle East in a way that it was not before. Erdoğan’s government and Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s nascent Syria have entered Israel’s security concerns.
Israel-Azerbaijan Relations
Azerbaijan declared its independence from the USSR on August 30, 1991. On December 25, 1991, Israel formally recognized the independence of Azerbaijan, becoming one of the first states to do so, and established diplomatic relations with the country on April 7, 1992. On March 29, 2023, Azerbaijan opened its embassy in Tel Aviv, a significant step in the relationship between the world’s only Jewish state and the strategic Shi’ite Muslim-majority country.
Recently the bi-lateral relations between the two countries have strengthened significantly.
US-Turkey Relations
The US is also a factor when Turkey is a NATO member. Published on April 10, 2025, in his letter to President Aliyev, President Trump recognized the importance of Azerbaijan’s alliance with Israel.
Trump’s second term picks, secretary of state Marco Rubio and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard are critics of Turkey. There are serious conflicts between an “America First” policy and Turkey’s Islamist base and its ideological undercurrent.
President Trump is more likely to realize, thus be alarmed by Ankara’s vision for the Middle East region, will be pulling Turkey into areas of actual irreconcilable differences with the US. Greece and Turkey – at loggerheads with each other over Cyprus – joined NATO together in 1952; American diplomacy has maintained a delicate balance between the two countries but Trump’s current team might not be similarly inclined.
Though Trump publicly expressed his liking for Erdoğan, these two political movements are not very compatible. As I recently heard from a well-known American political strategist, Turkey presents a very great danger and a concern to American foreign policy and the relations between the countries are unlikely to enjoy stability in the coming years.
Azerbaijan-Turkey Relations
On November 9, 1991, Türkiye recognized the Republic of Azerbaijan and diplomatic relations were established on January 14, 1992.
Türkiye’s high-level bi-lateral relations with Azerbaijan are multifaceted and at a strategic level.
To further strengthen the bilateral relations between the two countries, in 2010, the High Level Strategic Cooperation Council (HLSC) mechanism was established at the Presidential level.
Stability, peace and prosperity are the goal of Azerbaijan’s and Turkey’s relations.
Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan is the only land connection between Türkiye and Azerbaijan. As an exclave, it is geographically separated from the main part of Azerbaijan by Armenian territory. This fact places great importance for Türkiye’s relations with Azerbaijan and is the direct contact point with the people in Azerbaijan.
Turkey-Syria Relations
Turkey’s border along the north of Syria is 909 kilometers (565 miles) long, entirely within its southeastern Anatolia Region. Turkey sees itself an outsize player in shaping Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s Syria, the self-declared president since January 2025.
Turkey has set several goals in al-Jolani’s Syria.
The primary goal is to dismantle the People’s Defense Units (YPG), the primary component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) a U.S.-backed Kurdish militant group in Syria to which the U.S. provides weapons to help fight against the Islamic State group.
Turkey’s claim is that the YPG is the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a separatist group that has fought Turkey for over four decades and is listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey and the U.S.
Turkey’s other goal is to provide military support and training to the new administration and army of Syria.
In Turkey’s opinion, what happens in Syria has a direct bearing on its prosperity and security.
Furthermore, Turkey seeks to be most influential in the Middle East. However it is not at all clear if it seeks the same hegemony Iran seeks with its proxies Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
Standing strong in opposition to Iran’s expansion and domination in the region, Turkish has its own goal to establish its specific interests and order in the region.
After all said and done, with Erdoğan’s ongoing capricious statements about Israel, Israel has no trust in Turkey’s conduct in Syria, a distance of 358 km (222 miles), the distance from Damascus to Jerusalem.
Azerbaijan, a Potential Arab-Israel Normalization Bridge
As one of Israel’s most trusted allies, with Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s leadership, the idea of the country facilitating other Muslim countries normalizing relations with Israel and joining the Abraham Accords may be feasible.
Most people are hardly aware of Azerbaijan and the dynamics of Israel-Muslim-Jewish relations.
Though the Abraham Accords normalized relations and enacted ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Bahrain, and Morocco, Majority Muslim Azerbaijan has been Israel’s most vital ally in the Caucasus and Central Asia for more than three decades, fostering an expanded bi-lateral partnership.
Azerbaijan, Israel-Turkey Mediation
In order for Israel and Turkey not to clash militarily in al-Jolani’s Syria, the two countries that are at odds with each other have agreed for Azerbaijan to mediate between them.
After ups and downs in Israeli-Turkish relations over the years, on Wednesday, April 9, 2025, delegations of Israel and Turkey met in Azerbaijan, with the aim to establish security coordination mechanism of maintaining security stability in the region; this while the military bases Turkey wants to establish in Palmyra are a red line for the State of Israel.
T-4 is one of the largest military bases in Syria, used by the Syrian Air Force, located in the Homs Governorate, about 60 kilometers west of Palmyra, originally an oasis settlement called Tadmor. It is now is named after the nearby T4 pumping station of the Kirkuk-Banias oil pipeline. In early December 2024, the base was captured by the Free Syrian Army, to which Turkey (Türkiye) is the strongest supporter.
Israel and Turkey are trying to resolve a brewing crisis and avoid perhaps inevitable clashes in Syria, through Azerbaijani mediation.
Jerusalem is seeking to achieve a “de-escalation” mechanism to prevent unwanted incidents in Syria, similar to the one it had with Russia before it pulled out of Syria; a “red hotline” that would prevent misunderstandings between the parties.
In this first meeting Israel made it unequivocally clear that any change in the deployment of foreign forces in Syria – in particular the establishment of Turkish bases in the Palmyra area – is a red line and will be considered a breach of trust.
Baku has been chosen for its neutral and strategic location, with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev expressing support for these dialogues and hoping they continue in order to maintain open lines of communication between Israel and Turkey.
Being Cognizant of Turkey’s Ambitions in Syria?
Since Turkey presents a rather dangerous political, security and religious ideology challenge, the question at hand is: could Turkey misguide the mediator Azerbaijan and also President Trump? Could the U.S. President be missing the point of Turkey’s interference in Syria?
Is Azerbaijan aware that during a prayer service to mark the end of Ramadan, on March 30, 2025, the Turkish President Erdoğan called – “May Allah, for the sake of his name … destroy and devastate Zionist Israel,” – for God to destroy Israel?
I sincerely hope that President Trump and President Aliyev are aware, though he is ambiguous, that Erdoğan wants to establish a caliphate under Islamic sharia law.
Erdoğan’s AKP (Justice and Development Party-Turkey) relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood has drawn allegations of Islamism. Hamas, which Israel has been at war with since 2023 is the Muslim Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch.
In recent times, the primary state backers of the Muslim Brotherhood have been Qatar and the AKP-ruled Turkey. As of 2015, the Muslim Brotherhood is considered a terrorist organization by the governments of Bahrain, Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
We are looking at many animosity angles toward Israel.
Taking it all into consideration, if entrenched well in Syria, Turkey may turn to be like Iran but sitting on Israel’s border with the ambition to destroy the Jewish state.
And this is the consideration on which the mediation between Israel and Turkey, that Azerbaijan is conducting, must be based.
