According to AccuWeather.com, there are two weather systems heading for southeastern US this week. The first is the growing tropical system that is already dropping buckets of rain on part of the northeastern Caribbean, that may turn into a tropical depression or even a storm, later this week. The second system Accuweather are monitoring is near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.
Almost two weeks ago, the threat of multiple hurricanes were predicted in September
As has been described in previous stories, there are a number of environmental factors that can either create or suppress storms.
Accuweather’s Hurricane Expert, Dan Kottlowski, says “If either of the two systems can avoid land, dry air and disruptive winds, they could become the next tropical storms within a few days.”
If these two weather systems turn into Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones, they will be named Gabrielle and Humberto.
The Northeastern Caribbean Weather System
No matter whether the northeastern Caribbean weather system turns into a cyclone or not, there is a risk of flash flooding and mudslides all the way from the Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from now until the end of this week.
Accuweather’s report on this system says:
On Wednesday, Sept. 4, 2013, the system was located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Puerto Rico and was beginning to cluster thunderstorms near its center.
The area from the Windward and Leeward islands to the British and U.S. Virgin islands has been subject to locally heavy showers and gusty thunderstorms since the start of the week.
“U.S Air Force reconnaissance C130 aircraft will fly into the system later Wednesday to see if indeed the system has become a tropical cyclone,” Kottlowski said.
The system is forecast to drift in a general west to northwesterly direction the next several days and could begin to affect the Turks and Caicos, and the southern part of the Bahamas this weekend.
“Mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is likely to interfere with the circulation of the system and slow development through Saturday,” Kottlowski stated.
The same rugged terrain will enhance the rainfall and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides. Some areas could receive a half a foot of rain from the slow-moving system.
Depending on the strength of the system, there is the potential for building seas and surf in the region. However, even in a poorly organized system, there can be locally gusty squalls, which are a hazard for small craft.
Indications are that during next week, disruptive westerly winds in the atmosphere may minimize further development.
These same winds could keep the center of the system from reaching the United States mainland.
As this weather system passes over land and other factors come into play, its intensity may fall, but anyone near the expected path of this system should monitor its progress, because it may also intensify.
The Yucatan Peninsula Weather System
On Wednesday, the weather system near the Yucatan Peninsula was drifting slowly towards the west across north eastern Mexico.
Accuweather’s Kottlowski said, “As this system drifts over the warm waters of the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico late this week it will have a chance to become better organized.”
Over the next few days, the Yucutan Peninsula can expect “drenching showers and locally gusty thunderstorms,” according to Accuweather.
The Accuweather report says:
The Yucatan system will then drift into the Mexico mainland this weekend and may not have enough time to get very strong before doing so. However, even a disturbance, depression or storm would still bring the potential for torrential rain, flooding and mudslides. Veracruz, Mexico, was hit hard by Tropical Storm Fernand during late August.
Thanks to information from Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather.com, for sending the graphics and weather report.
