This year is probably going to be the worst tropical storm year in our history and an election year is the worst possible time in any four year election cycle. Hurricane Disasters may be a feature of 2024.
NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency), the U.S. weather service, has predicted a bad year for tropical storms expecting one additional major hurricane than has been average for the past hundred or so years
Hurricanes – Is One More Than Usual A Big Deal?
A prediction of one more, that doesn’t sound like much, does it?
But with the usual number being 3 major storms, 4 major storms this year would be 25% more than usual. Of course that is only a projection, it might not be that bad. But there is just as good a chance that it could be 5 as only 3.
How would you like a 25% increase in food costs? Or a 25% reduction in your income?
NOAA can’t predict how many of these will strike the US.
Perhaps all, perhaps none.
But even one would be a major disaster.
Hurricanes the Reason?
Is it that damn mythical butterfly again flapping its wings somewhere near Hawaii?
No, in fact it is one of the simplest things in science to understand and predict.
You might wonder how, with weather prediction being so notoriously hard, you would be correct to wonder how they can make such a prediction so early with any confidence.
Actually it is very easy, anyone with very little scientific information can make the prediction that this could and probably will be a very bad year for tropical storms. Projecting actual hard numbers is hard, but a basic understanding is easy.
You see, it is well known that the number and strength of tropical storms is directly linked with the temperature of the ocean where storms develop.
In the North Atlantic, and particularly the Caribbean area, water is the warmest in history.
Last summer it was hot tub temperature ocean water off the Louisiana coast.
It is approaching that level already, just days after the beginning of this year’s Hurricane Season which officially begins on June 1.
Hurricane Disasters and Elections
Climate change political reaction to major storms and disasters is questionable, after all, those living in hurricane territory already see climate change if they can get over conspiracy theory pressure and look out the window.
There are wild fires and the heat in Texas is already at what used to be mid-August temperatures.
But attitudes about climate change, global warming, which is still denied by many Republican politicians supposedly catering to their base isn’t the only election effect caused by major storms.
The 2024 presidential election will fall within hurricane season and we know from past weather events that polling places will get flooded out, voters will be stranded, unable to get to voting locations, poll workers evacuating, voting machines get damaged, and all that means both voting and certification of the vote will be disrupted if a hurricane hits within weeks of the November election.
Hurricanes – El Niño and La Niña
We are in the middle of the end of the periodic El Niño weather phase which causes high altitude winds coming from the Pacific.
If that change-over occurs on schedule we will enter a term of La Niña which will reduce upper atmospheric winds.
That will probably seem like a good thing for hurricane season but science can be complicated and atmospheric science (weather forecasting) is probably as complex as quantum mechanics.
Actually the lower upper atmosphere winds common from El Niño events will be less able to blow apart building cyclonic storms giving the atmosphere a greater chance to build tropical storms which can turn into hurricanes.
NOAA Predicts Above Average 2024 Hurricane Season
