Following the 2020, 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh war, which concluded with Azerbaijan liberating significant territories to which Azerbaijan had territorial integrity, subsequent clashes and skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia took place.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a decisive military operation which led to the collapse of the remaining structures of Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh self-declared illegal authorities.
Since then there has been significant movement towards a peace agreement between the two countries that have been at loggerheads for over three decades.
Ilham Heydar Oghlu Aliyev, the president of the Republic of Azerbaijani, has been steadily working to achieve a peace treaty with Armenia and thus put to rest all hostilities.
Currently there are clear indications that as of March 2025 the countries agreed on the peace agreement text.
President Donald Trump, who will go down in history as the United States Peace President welcomed these steps. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism that the peace treaty will come to fruition soon and that President Trump is looking forward to the signing of this peace treaty.
There are indications that the Trump administration is keenly involved in pushing for this agreement, which could yield an opportunity for the U.S. to tighten its diplomatic relations as well as pursue its economic interests in the region.
Peace Deal Not Yet Sealed
Despite having the peace treaty text set, there are several hurdles to cross before it is signed and sealed.
It is reported that Azerbaijan demands that Armenia amend its constitution and remove any references to Karabakh independence – formerly known as Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast which Armenia renamed Artsakh; and omits language that could be seen as Armenian’s claim to internationally recognised Azerbaijani territory.
More so, since the draft agreement was reached, there have been accusations of cross-border firing incidents. These violate the ceasefire agreement and highlight that ongoing tension on either side of the two countries’ border has not ceased.
The Peacemaker Needs to Push
Since the Trump administration is in support of Azerbaijan and Armenia putting down their swords, under the current circumstances and bringing this peace treaty to cross the final line it may need to offer additional involvement.
It is possible that the United States will join several other entities, including the European Union and its member states and Turkey that have already been working to facilitate a diplomatic resolution to this conflict. Outside effective support could maintain the momentum needed to usher in lasting peace.
Trust Not Yet Established
The tension between the two South Caucasus neighbours has not been put to rest; it is still back and forth finger pointing. Azerbaijan frequently accuses Armenia of ceasefire violations at their common border. Additionally, Baku still maintains unease that Yerevan has not yet let go of its desire to take Nagorno-Karabakh back.
Armenia denies the accusation while arguing that Baku, much stronger militarily, still has war on its mind.
With no trust, since 2020 both countries have been building up their militaries, each have more than doubled their defence budget. Armenia’s weaponry stock is purchased mainly from Russia, France and India which for Azerbaijan translates to an imminent Armenian threat.
Azerbaijan, spending far more on weapons than Armenia, is purchasing its weapons stockpile from Israel, Türkiye, Pakistan, Serbia and Slovakia.
Other Dividing Matters
Besides Nagorno-Karabakh relevant issues include the disposition of refugees, establishing cross-border transit routes and the re-establishment of their permanent common border have not yet been agreed upon.
While the diplomatic negotiations continue, with minor progress, the most critical issue is that the two sides must agree to show mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity.
For Azerbaijan, Armenia must formally renounce any claim to Nagorno-Karabakh. For Armenia, Azerbaijan must give reassurance that it would not seek to take over any Armenian territory.
Complexity of Geopolitics
The security order in the South Caucasus may be subjected to geopolitical environment shifts.
Azerbaijan borders Russia to its north. Moscow has been slowly receding as Armenia’s security guarantor and as a mediator between Baku and Yerevan. If the war between Russia and Ukraine ends, Russia may again turn its interest to the South Caucasus.
The U.S. on the other hand has long acted as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In recent years the U.S. tried to encourage Armenia to mitigate its contact and drift away from Russia. Busy with many other matters, locally and abroad, the Trump administration has not yet established concrete plans as to how to deal with the Caucasus.
Now that Iran has suffered a setback caused by Israel and the U.S. military attack, the potential security guarantee previously offered to Armenia may be on hold for a longer time.
Türkiye on the other hand remains Azerbaijan’s most prominent backer.
Against this milieu, over the last four years the EU has stepped up to try to take a more active role in mediating peace talks between Baku and Yerevan. This move includes facilitating trilateral confidence-building measures meetings among Armenia, Azerbaijan and the EU.
In order to quiet cross-border tensions and serve as a de-escalatory and reassurance body, the EU applied measures to end deployment of a civilian monitoring mission on the Armenian side of the Azerbaijan border. However, this mission has become a source of friction, with Azerbaijan accusing the EU of bias. The reason being, it operates only on Armenia’s side of the border and without Azerbaijan’s approval.
For effectiveness, the bilateral peace agreement would require the monitors to move away from the border. To keep this mission going the EU and Armenia will be required to redefine its mandate. It could be agreed upon that Armenia will train border guards and customs agents, while adhering to the agreement to stay away from the border.
Russia’s Ukraine invasion created geopolitical opportunities for European actors in the Caucasus that sometimes clashed with their efforts to bring peace to the region. The EU countries signed a deal to increase gas purchases from Azerbaijan while weaning off Russian energy. Following Armenia’s disenchantment with its Russian champion, these Europeans stepped in seeking to bring Armenia closer to its continent’s bloc and its member states. These moves however tested Brussels’ neutrality in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
Armenia sees the European bloc gas deal with Baku to cause a softer response to Azerbaijan’s military offensives than it should have been. Azerbaijan sees the EU’s courting of Armenia as a factor that emboldened Yerevan to drag its feet on meeting Baku’s reasonable peace treaty demands.
Where It All May End
The fact is that Armenia and Azerbaijan have been conducting bilateral peace negotiations for more than a year.
Creative thinking may bring about the solutions to a lasting peace. Will such thinking come from Baku and Yerevan or could it use an injection of thought from the U.S. Department of State or an EU special rapporteur?
Azerbaijan is a leading factor in the South Caucasus region from which Armenia could certainly benefit.
Help For Azerbaijan and Armenia
Whoever takes the lead to bring Azerbaijan and Armenia to the peace final line should promote significant investments in the region. Economics can forecast stability.
The third party that leads in the peace efforts could direct these efforts to infrastructure programs and reconstruction assistance in the areas that have been hit the hardest by the conflict. This includes Azerbaijan’s territories formerly occupied by Armenia, where reconstruction has been slowed by the arduous task of demining more than one million landmines Armenia laid there since the 1990s when the conflict erupted.
Is There an Israeli Intervention Factor?
At a recent U.S. cabinet meeting Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed that the Trump administration is working on a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, not just between Israel, Gaza, Syria and Lebanon and other players – meaning an extended Abraham Accords.
As I humbly understand it, considering that President Trump is the herald of world peace and because Israel and Azerbaijan are such close allies, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to see Armenia finally signing the peace treaty with all the caveats Azerbaijan demands.
It is therefore possible that Netanyahu approached President Trump and Secretary of State Mr. Rubio and asked them to help to resolve the peace treaty issues that are still pending.
We are all waiting for good news and regional peace in the Southern Caucasus for a new dawn.
