Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH – Southeast Europe Theatre: Belgrade – Tehran – Sarajevo/Vienna – Brussels – Rome; Bosnian Serbs Planning to Secede from Bosnia as Belgrade Attempts to Seize Bosnian Territory
Night Watch: BELGRADE – The Serbs seem to have devised another way to re-start the war in the Balkans besides fighting to keep control over Kosovo. Milorad Dodik, the Serbian Prime Minister of the Republic of Serbia, the name of the Serbian community in Bosnia, has called for a referendum that would enable the Serbs in Bosnia to secede from Bosnia. The Serbian community comprises 49% of the population, therefore any secession would destroy the Muslim controlled state, creating another war and parallel to the fighting over Kosovo between Serbs and Muslim Albanians. [SERBIANNA]
The only question is which war will start first. Recently crossfirewar.com mentioned the Serbs were arming self-defence groups, ex-military and police officers. Belgrade also has found eager support from Tehran when the two governments signed a mutual enemy security agreement in January. Obviously it is directed at Vienna, the headquarters of the fifty-five headed hydra, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Brussels – NATO headquarters. Both institutions are responsible for the most irresponsible decision in modern European history that recognized the division of Yugoslavia, setting the stage for this front in World War III. Brussels-Vienna are now trapped into maintaining security in the region and both are enemies of Tehran, who is therefore eager to see their attention directed elsewhere besides Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. NATO-OSCE also support Kosovo’s independence, which is an anathema to every Serb.
Vienna has been the venue of the dead-end, circus negotiations that were meant to lead to a solution of Kosovo’s future. In effect the negotiations are leading to Kosovo’s internationally recognized independence, an event that every Serb leader, official and unofficial, has been warning will lead to instablility from the Balkans to the Caucasus as every ethnic-religious-nationalistic group starts their own war for independence. This is the Old World chaos the agreement to divide Yugoslavia unleashed 15 years ago at the end of the Cold War and in the name of the New World Order.
Europe is reverting back to type, twisted boundaries, conficting identities, warring nation states in perpetual war or war preparation, driven by a maniacal sense of mission -vision-order, and by fears or hatreds of enemies real and imagined. All of this works in Tehran’s favor so they have established military relations with every Balkan capital who hates Vienna even more than Tehran does. Athens, for instance, has made no secret that they support Tehran’s nuclear program.
In studying the region Tehran knows that the next war can radiate from Serbia in any number of directions. As fighting resumes over Kosovo the Serbs in Bosnia will also attempt to seize control of their part of the country, breaking away from Muslim controlled Sarajevo. The Muslims may be able to call on support from either Islamic groups in the area, Albanians, or from Muslims outside the region as they did during the first phase of the war in the early 1990’s. That enabled Tehran to establish bases for al-Qaeda in Bosnia. The fighting could spread south to engulf the ethnic-religious differences in Macedonia, while at the same time it could spread north from Serbia as they prepare to meet Brussels-Vienna response.
This renewed fighting will cause the regional instability that will pave the way for Tehran to use the region as its avenue of invasion into Europe and to silence Vienna. It will also cause Brussels-Rome-Berlin to concentrate on their own defence instead of their current power projection into West Asia through Lebanon.