Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) said Iran must be stopped from obtaining even one nuclear warhead because Israel is a “one-bomb country.” [ The Hill ]
It is true. One nuclear bomb will end the state of Israel and that is the goal of Iran, to end Israel’s existence with the nuclear arsenal it is developing. And nowadays, Iran has all the ingredients to produce 7-9 nuclear bombs.
Amos Yadlin is an Israeli Maj. General (Ret.) who served on his last military job as the head of Israel’s intelligence. Today Yadlin heads the Institute for National Studies-INSS, an Israeli leading strategy and intelligence think tank. Its main objective is to try to help Israel to navigate in the Middle East’s rough and stormy neighborhood. Help a country that can be compared to being a villa in the jungle.
Recently Mr. Yadlin spoke, in an off-the-radar kind of a meeting, in Los Angeles; his topic was Iran. The following is what I have taken away from his anecdotes.
The one country that worries the most about Iran’s desire to acquire nuclear arsenal is Israel. The EU, which is in close proximity to Iran, the US and the Arab countries all join Israel in its concerns but express secondary worry.
In the Bible it is mentioned three times, and the land had rest for forty years. Coincidence?
The Book of Judges, Chapter 3:11: “And the land had rest forty years. And Othniel the son of Kenaz died”
The Book of Judges, Chapter 3:31: “So may all your enemies perish, LORD! But may all who love you be like the sun when it rises in its strength. Then the land had peace forty years.”
The Book of Judges, Chapter 8:28: “Thus was Midian subdued before the children of Israel, so that they lifted up their heads no more. And the country was in quietness forty years in the days of Gideon.”
This year it is 40 years since Israel ended up, victoriously, its 1973 Yom Kippur War. Since then the Jewish state has enjoyed a quiet time. It signed a peace treaty with Egypt and Jordan and her border with Syrian has been peaceful as well. Israel has proved it is strong and its deterrence. Power works.
Israel Quiet, Iran Boiling
So Israel is quiet but the issue of Iran is slowly reaching a boiling point.
Iran’s danger is looming; a nuclear Iran will be more dangerous to Israel than attacking Iran preemptively, as Netanyahu expressed in his first 2013 Knesset Fall session, or having to go to war with Iran. Israel cannot afford a nuclear Iran on its northern border. The world cannot afford a nuclear Iran because if Iran goes nuclear every Arab state that considers itself an influential power will go nuclear, i.e. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc. More so, this nuclear proliferation will never end until someone blows up the world. The nuclear standoff between the USA and USSR will not play out in this scenario.
While Israel’s perception of the nuclear Iran threat is severe and bleak and many compare it to 1938 rise of Hitler, Iran has been moving towards its nuclear bomb goal in an “as safe as possible” mode.
The only country Iran has openly threatened to annihilate is Israel; Israel is small and is in Iran’s range of ballistic missiles.
While the United States persistently declares it will not tolerate a nuclear Iran, and with this approach is joining Israel, the two countries appear to have different perspectives as to their tolerance level.
The Jewish nation still suffers from the Holocaust trauma; from being gathered into concentration camps, without an escape route and going through methodical murder of its people in the millions.
The US is suffering from the trauma of wars, mostly unsuccessful that have not achieved their goals – if there were any goal set, i.e. Vietnam and more recently, Iraq and Afghanistan. A war with Iran, so far away from the US Atlantic ocean border is a hard sell.
Then there is the timing factor, for Israel it is short. While the Israeli air-force has doubts it can attack alone, for the US the timing is longer, or rather, untimed.
Israel and the US differ on the trigger issue. While Israel wants to pull the trigger just before the Bomb has been produced, the US wants to pull the trigger as the Iranians are breaking to have the Bomb.
The trust factor also plays. The trust factor between Benjamin Netanyahu, the current prime minster of Israel, and Barack Hussein Obama, the current president of the United States, is poor. If Israel is to lose its operational trust, who can she trust then?
Obama Wants To Buy Time
Obama wants to buy time. His non-performance on Syria, after drawing a red line, then allowing Russian’s intervention, empowered the Iranians; Obama’s threatening statements to Syria that followed by fickle actions told Iran, it can catch the same US vacillating wave. Iran does not want to buy time; it wants to have the Bomb, though it keeps on claiming that it is developing nuclear capabilities for the peaceful purposes of industrial nuclear power and nuclear energy.
As for the sanctions, Israel demands that lifting sanctions will be only at the end, after all other threats have been lifted, i.e. totally ending enriching uranium and removing all enriched uranium out of Iran to a safe and inspectionable storage facility.
Failed Once, Fail Again?
Wendy Sherman is the United States diplomat and government official who currently serves as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, the third highest ranking position in the U.S. Department of State. During the Clinton Administration, she served as Counselor of the United States Department of State and Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State and North Korea Policy Coordinator; she fell for North Korea’s trap and has been proved to be a failed negotiator. Sherman is on the US team currently negotiating with Iran in Geneva, Switzerland; she promised not to fall for an Iranian trap. Can Israel trust her based on her past record?
While Israelis are smart, guided by a sense of security, the US does not see Iran as an immediate security threat.
A nuclear Iran will be a nightmare to Israel and the world. The world cannot afford an open ended race to nuclearization. Iran must be de-nuclearized before it achieves nuclear power.
The good news, Israel has been and is creative and has been surprising in the past; when no one expected it, Israel has done the impossible. Examples are in Entebbe, Uganda on July 4th, 1976; on June 7th, 1981 in Iraq, when, during Operation Opera, also known as Operation Babylon, she destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor; in the 1967 Six Day War and mostly and against all odds in becoming a power state 65 years after it was re-established.
Prime Minister Netanyahu swore he will not allow Iran to go nuclear, we support him and hope he will do as promised.