Crossfire War – Jerusalem – Cairo Watch – West Asia Theatre: Jerusalem – London – Washington – Paris – Rome – Cairo/Gaza City – Ramallah – Beirut – Damascus – Khartoum – Riyadh – Tripoli – Ankara – Baghdad – Tehran; Head of Israel Military Intelligence Warns of Summer War – Mentions 1967 Six Day War – Hamas Warns of Third Intifada (Uprising) in Three Months
Night Watch: JERUSALEM – Xinhua reports an Israeli paper, Yedioth Ahronoth, has quoted the head of Israel’s Military Intelligence, Major-General Amos Yadlin that Hezbollah-Syria-Iran are preparing for a war during this summer. Gen. Yadlin stated at a cabinet meeting, “Their preparation is defensive ahead of war…They fear a war initiated by the Americans because they understand that there might be an attack over the summer, but not by Israel. We are closely following these preparations for fear that one of the sides misinterprets certain moves in the region. I bring up the Six Day War in this context – when you reach a war no one is interested in as a result of the involvement of many players.” [XINHUA]
Crossfirewar.com mentioned again this week, Russian Intelligence estimating the U.S. attacking Iran in early April due to the arrival of carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf.
But Tehran is indeed interested in this war since Iran knows the event can be used to wipe away the adminstration of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak, the main obstacle to Islamic unity and remove the influence of the West in the region. Mubarak has always hated Islamic radicalism ever since they assassinated his predecessor President Anwar al-Sadat in 1981, just two years after the Khomeini revolution in Iran. Under no circumstances will Mubarak ever cooperate with Iran militarily and he will actually have Egyptian forces attack Iranian units in the immediate area during this war. When that happens Tehran and the Jihad will concentrate their effort on removing Mubarak who is surrounded by governments that support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum-Riyadh.
Concerning Israel, as crossfirewar.com has stated repeatedly, Tehran-Riyadh will designate Israel as the holiest front but the least important economically, there is no market for salt in the Dead Sea, but the war will generate useful spritual currency as did the war last year. Concerning Washington, Tehran stated a few years ago, as President George W. Bush, mentioned attacking Iran as an “option on the table”, Tehran then indicated Iran would not let the U.S. attack first. I suspect Tehran began the current crisis over the British sailors-marines to accuse London of aggression and with Washington’s support. Therefore Tehran can claim its military attack on Allied forces in the Persian Gulf is defensive. Iran’s most recent offensive naval maneuvers were just completed in the Gulf Friday.
It should be no surprise the head of Israel’s Military Intelligence referred to Israel’s lighting quick victory in the Six Day War forty years ago. It was made possible by Israel assessing correctly the immediate threats from Egypt – Syria so Israel attacked first. If Damascus is caught off guard again then Tehran-Riyadh will probably tell Syria of the importance of learning from history. With the state of delusion Syria President Bashar al-Assad is in he may not be aware that again Israel could strike first. He actually stated, in an unbalanced speech after last summer’s war, that Hezbollah had achieved a great victory and therefore it will be easy for Syria to retake the strategic Golan Heights. However, Tehran is not given to hysteria and I suspect Tehran may not mind at all if Jerusalem does attack first becuase then Iran can portray Israel as the aggressor. Iran will commit a few religious-military units in support of Damascus and give them glorious publicity. A few years ago AOL had a photo of an Iranian infantry religious unit of Mullahs in a military parade.
Hamas leader and Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haneya has warned the international community if their economic embargo against Gaza is not lifted then a Third Intifada (uprising) will begin in three months, which is exactly what Tehran-Riyadh-Damascus want. Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups have not been funded and armed for the cause of peace. Martyrdom services and celebrations are awaiting them.
European forces in UNIFIL in Lebanon will be caught in the crossfire, preventing the West from doing anything to help Mubarak. Relations will be restored after the smoke clears.