Fortunes are changing by the day, now, as the 2016 presidential campaign moves on, and a new poll says Cruz leads Trump.
Republican candidate Senator Ted Cruz appeared to be on the precipice of winning the Wisconsin primary, even with a court ruling against his elegibility. It is possible Cruz could stop business mogul and current GOP front-runner, Donald Trump, in his tracks. The poll from the Marquette Law School released Tuesday shows conservative Cruz with what could only be described as a surprising 10-point lead among likely Wisconsin voters.
Cruz Leads Trump By 10 Points
In a complete reversal of fortunes, the just-released poll shows Cruz with a healthy ten point lead over Trump, 40 percent to Trump’s 30 percent, with Ohio Governor John Kasich trailing back almost another ten points, at 21 percent. 8 percent of Wisconsin voters are still undecided. Wisconsin is the home state of two successful moderate conservatives, Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House and Governor Scott Walker. Both of these republican politicians have enjoyed successful, popular careers in the state.
According to Politico, if Cruz is able to hold on to his “impressive” 10 point lead, he would gain 15 delegates. There could be more, though, if the Texas senator is able to really pull a rabbit out of the hat, and sweep Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts outright. If he does, he would pick up three more delegates per district. If the Marquette poll is correct, Cruz could do exactly that, and we just have to wait for the primary next week.
The Marquette poll isn’t the only one available, but it is the only one that gives Cruz a huge lead. Three other polls differ greatly from the Marquette findings. Those polls have Cruz and Trump much closer, only five points apart. One of those poll is from Real Clear Politics a respected pollster. If Marquette is right, there will be much back-slapping and self-congratulations. If they are wrong, there might be sniggering and head shaking.
The polls are looking a lot different to the way they were back in February. Then Trump had a solid lead, with 30 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who wasagainst his elegibility dumped out of the race, with 20 percent, Ted Cruz on 19 percent, Dr. Ben Carson (also dropped out) and Kasich, both on 8 percent.
Proving once again that it absolutely matters what questions the pollsters ask, the new Marquette poll had questions not asked by the others. Marquette also asked Wisconsin voters who they did not want to be president. The move against Donald Trump was huge, with 56 percent naming him.
Anyone but …
Wisconsin voters apparently like Donald Trump less than they like former first-lady, Hillary Clinton. In the “Anyone but …” stakes, Trump scored 56, Clinton was 42, Bernie Sanders and Cruz at 32 percent each and Kasich a distant 12 percent. It could be Kasich doesn’t rate on many people’s radar.
The Marquette pollsters revealed that they questioned 1,405 voters overall (including Democrats), and they say that gives them a margin of error of 3.3 points. In the Republican primary, 471 likely voters were questioned with a larger margin of error – 5.8 percent.
Let’s see what happens next week.