For decades, one idea has lingered in both public debate and policy circles: when unemployment rises, crime inevitably follows. Yet new research from Suzuki Law’s analysis team suggests that this long-standing stereotype may not hold up—especially in light of the Covid-19 pandemic. By reviewing unemployment and crime statistics across the United States between 2019 and 2023, the study highlights how the pandemic disrupted traditional patterns linking jobs, economics, and public safety.
The Covid Shock: Unemployment Surged, But Crime Didn’t Behave as Expected
In 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate was a stable 3.67%, the lowest it had been in decades. That stability was shattered in April 2020, when unemployment spiked to 14.8% during the nationwide lockdowns—the highest rate seen since the Great Depression. Nevada ended 2020 with the worst annual jobless rate in the country, at 13.5%.
According to conventional wisdom, such dramatic job losses should have produced a wave of crime. Yet the data told a more complicated story. In Nevada, both violent and property crime rates actually declined in 2020, even as homicides rose. Nationally, the pattern was similar:
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Homicides increased nearly 30% in 2020—the sharpest one-year rise ever recorded by the FBI.
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At the same time, property crime fell to its lowest level since 1990, largely because lockdown restrictions reduced opportunities for burglary, shoplifting, and other theft-related offenses.
This paradox reveals that economic distress and crime did not always move in lockstep during the pandemic years.
Post-Covid Stabilization: Unemployment Falls, But Crime Doesn’t Follow
By 2023, unemployment had largely returned to pre-pandemic levels at 3.7%. But crime rates did not decline as smoothly as jobless numbers:
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Violent crime fell by 3% in 2023, and homicides dropped by 12%.
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Motor vehicle thefts, however, spiked 13% between 2020 and 2023.
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Property crime rebounded in many states even as unemployment improved.
California provides a clear example of this disconnect. The state’s unemployment rate fell from 10.1% in 2020 to just 4.7% in 2023. Yet despite that economic recovery, California ranked sixth in the nation for violent crime in 2023 and entered the top 10 for property crime—two categories where it did not appear in 2020.
State-by-State Patterns: Highs and Lows
The analysis highlights that violent crime remains concentrated in certain states:
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2020: Alaska (837.8 incidents per 100,000 residents), New Mexico (778.2), and Tennessee (672.7).
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2023: New Mexico (749.3), Alaska (726.3), and Tennessee (628.2).
For property crime, New Mexico and Washington led the nation in 2023, each recording more than 2,800 incidents per 100,000 residents. Washington’s case is especially telling: while unemployment there dropped from 8.5% in 2020 to 4.2% in 2023, violent crime increased by 20% and property crime outpaced the national average.
Long-Term Crime Trends: Decades of Shifts
Looking further back, the study identified states with sharp increases in violent crime over the past decade:
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South Dakota: +188% (2012–2022).
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Montana: +125%.
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New Mexico: +120%.
In contrast, other states saw dramatic reductions in crime since the 1990s:
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Florida: –78.1% (1991–2022).
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Illinois: –72.4%.
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New Jersey: –68.0%.
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California: –54.2%.
Which Crimes Are Driving Concern?
Some crime categories are fueling more worry than others. Car thefts have become a particularly pressing issue. In 2023, California led the nation with 208,668 stolen vehicles, followed by Texas (115,013) and Florida (46,213).
Burglaries also spiked in specific states. New Mexico topped the list with 604 burglaries per 100,000 residents, followed by Washington (563) and Louisiana (497.8). These increases occurred even as overall violent crime trended downward, further weakening the assumption that economic recovery guarantees safer streets.
The Bigger Picture: No Simple Formula
Ultimately, Suzuki Law’s research concludes that while unemployment and crime may sometimes rise or fall together in the short term, there is no definitive, long-term nationwide link. The pandemic years in particular highlighted how other factors—such as public health emergencies, local enforcement practices, and state-level social conditions—can outweigh economic indicators.
The takeaway is clear: economic downturns don’t always fuel property crime, and recoveries don’t automatically reduce violence. Crime in America is shaped by a complex web of influences, and policymakers will need to look beyond simple cause-and-effect assumptions to address public safety effectively.
