A bulk of innocent peace loving Nepali People think that the Maoists and the government are positive to resolve the ongoing crisis. Both the groups are considered as key actors, and people are seen as very optimistic. At present, the SPA led government and the Maoists are in the process of implementing an interim constitution and forming an interim government as well as interim parliament.
The government of Nepal and the Maoist have committed verbally and also in written documents to solve the crisis by holding elections for a constituent assembly. They have even invited the United Nations to monitor the opposing forces and supervise the election. This is one side of the coin but on the other side, so many people may not be aware that the Maoists are simultaneously preparing dangerous game plans, which will lead the present peace process to declare Nepal a “Communist State.”
In the path to resolve the crisis, Nepal’s government has become very flexible to the Maoists and has lifted the terrorist tag and red corner notice to the Maoists. But, the international community is still reluctant to trust the Maoists – the Nepalese Maoists are still terrorists in the eyes of the international community.
If we analyze the situation of Nepal, what we can clearly see now is that the present SPA led government itself is trapped in the Maoist game plan. Therefore, the government is not in the position to give any sort of pressure to the Maoist. Rather, the Maoists are forcing government to make all decisions on the Maoist’s favor. At present, permanent decommissioning of the Maoist’s weapon and rebel force is mandatory step to be taken before the Maoist joins the government. Despite international pressure and Nepalese peoples’ wish, the Government of Nepal could not take stand with the Maoist in the process to separate arms with the rebel force. The government and the Maoist send letter to the United Nations, which gave almost same status to military wing of both sides. This indicate government’s green signal to the Maoist to join the government without proper decommissioning of rebel force and its weapons.
The government forces are responsible to the government and they are always abiding by the nation’s rules and regulations. The national interest is paramount for the security forces. The government can impose any controlling measure on their employment. So they have already confined themselves in own barrack location after receiving order from the government. Once the Maoists are included in the interim government, they will have the authority to control the Nepal Army as their own force. But the rebel troops, being a force of a single party are always loyal and responsible to their own political party. They can be utilized by the Maoist in their party’s interest, if they fail to achieve their ultimate goals. In this circumstance, separation of the Maoist weapons from the rebel force is a must. Otherwise, how can the Maoist join the government with its military wing during peace process and before the election of constituent assembly?
There has been no single example, which poses any restriction to the Maoist since the present peace process has been resumed. The government’s force, Nepal Army, is now limited within their barracks’ boundary whereas the Maoist rebel are carrying their arms and moving around wherever they want for their activities. There is enough evidence that currently the Maoists are increasing their rebel force from 12000 to 35000. Their recruitment process is massive throughout the country and at the same time they are converting their all supporters and cadres to make them into guerilla. They are frequently smuggling arms and ammunition into Nepal. My question at this stage is why are they building their military strength if they are truly faithful towards ongoing peace process to resolve the crisis?
At present, the Maoist strategy indicates that they are utilizing negotiating forum to reach to the power. So far, they have been very successful in this course. By this means they are creating very favorable environment for their organization. They have infiltrated almost all organization of the government. And now they are trying to create their strong position in government’s executive and legislative bodies.
However, recently expressed views by the international communities regarding decommissioning of the arms generated tremendous amount of pressure as well as placed them in a cross road of dilemma. Therefore, the Maoists are starting to take another step. If they fail to achieve their desired objective by this present peace process they are likely to use republican alliance (Primarily Leftist Alliance) in the form of street demonstration to pressurize to the government.
In spite of the Maoist involvement in peace process, they have already started lobbying to create alliance for agitation program. In addition to the Maoist’s sister organizations, most of the leftist including United Marxist Leninist (one of the major fraction of SPA) are also joining hand on this move. This agitation program is likely to be followed by the armed insurrection to over through the existing democratic set up of the country. For this, the Maoist military wing is already involved in reconnaissance, planning and preparation for urban insurgency. This way they will try to destroy the complete structure of the country which will facilitate them to declare Nepal as a communist state.
If truce fails, the Maoist may not be heading towards jungle this time. They have established well organized popular bases in all the major urban areas, including the capital city. From those bases, they can launch urban insurgency against the existing regime. This is not just a prediction, but time and again the Maoist leaders have expressed this strategy in various forums.
The SPA government is trying to please the Maoist from all dimensions since they know that their move would not have achieved success if the Maoist would not have joined their program. They seek the Maoist’s help to restore the democracy but how can they put democracy in danger just to please the Maoist. The SPA government and parliament have taken so many decisions against the King, which mainly fulfils the basic demands of the Maoist.
Even though the most of the demands of the Maoist have been fulfilled and the government seriously devoted to bring about lasting peace in the country, the Maoists are not seen neither serious nor faithful towards initiative rather they are spreading unnecessary propaganda accusing government and some political parties. If all of us are sincere to solve this crisis positively one should not forget that every one should get chance in the peace process. Cornering the Monarch may also create another round of conflict in the future in the path to restore sustainable democratic peace process.
So all the people, who want to see Nepal as a peaceful democratic country must do something to protect Nepal from his or her capacity. Otherwise Nepal will not remain a democratic country. The Maoist’s ultimate aim is to establish totalitarian one party communist regime in Nepal. This is the right time to place peace process in right track otherwise nobody can stop Nepal from another seemingly endless bloody civil war.