Crossfire War – South Asia Theatre: Tehran – Islamabad – Dhaka/Delhi; DRY SEASON ACTION – Islamic Militant Units Using Porous Indo-Bangla Border for Infiltration – Delhi Transfers More Units East
Night Watch: DAKHA – “Earlier the focus used to be Kashmir. Now it has shifted to the East, which I personally feel is going to be the problem area for tomorrow.” That is a quote from A. K. Mitra the Director – General of India’s Border Security Force (BSF). AKI reports that Islamic militant-terror units have been using the porous Indo-Bangla border and the problem of illegal immigration, to infiltrate into India. According to released figures, 8,196 persons have been arrested this year for illegal immigration as oppoosed to 11,000 last year. Mitra stated, “We used to have 50 battalions there. Now it stands at 66 and we propose to induct few more battalions.” [AKI]
Delhi can expect no help from Dhaka whose interim government is fighting for its political life. Today 50,000 demonstrators were blocked by police on the roads leading to the presidential palace. The demonstrators are demanding the resignation of the President and Interim government. Elections are due in January and there have already been violence between rival political groups. Islamic political parties are prominent in the current government coalition and their support for the Jihad and operations against India is an open secret. [NFB]
Bangladesh was the issue during the third war between India/Pakistan in 1971 when Bangladesh was still called East Pakistan and controlled by Islamabad. Pakistan losing the war enabled East Pakistan to become what is now is the independent state of Bangladesh with Dhaka as its capital. For years relations were not the best between Islamabad/Dhaka but that has changed in the past few years as the message of the Jihad and Islamic military unity-cooperation found more support among Bangladesh’s population and decision making circles.
Last August crossfirewar.com reported an article by Selig S. Harrison, South Asia expert and with the Asia program of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in which he mentioned Bangladesh had now become a regional center for Islamic Jihad terrorist groups like the Jamaat – e- Islami. Tehran is at the center of their financing and planning. It is also known that Pakistan’s intelligence service has maintained working relations even before 1971 with Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen one of the major militant units. Because of the impact of the Khomeini revolution in 1979, the massive public support for action against India, on this third front, is now very much at work and this is the dry season which makes any terrorist – military operation easier since the monsoon ended in September. The dry season should last through April.
Crossfirewar.com has mentioned, ever since the 400 small bombs were detonated all over Bangladesh on August 17, 2005, that Tehran-Islamabad were now able to use the Indo-Bangla border as their third front, forcing Delhi to divide its forces and to keep India from concentrating too many units in one area. The first front is Jammu-Kashmir, the second the rest of the India/Pakistan border and the third, Indo-Bangla.
India’s investigation into the July 11 Mumbai bombings did reveal that some of the terrorists involved had been trained in Bangladesh. India’s BSF has demanded for at least the past year that Dhaka should close the 172 training camps in Bangladesh used by Islamic militants. Dehli has made similar demands on Islamabad but of course no action has been taken. That is why with the next series of attacks from either Bangladesh or Pakistan, India could then decide to activate its “hot pursuit policy” and attack the bases, which would set off the fourth major war in South Asia since 1947.
A potential fourth front against India depends on if China decides to follow up on the recent statement from their Ambassador to Delhi, that the Indian province of Arunachal Pradesh, in India’s northeast, is Chinese territory. The area was the scene of intense combat in October 1962 when China invaded and occupied the province for nearly two months. Bordering Arunachal Pradesh to the south is India’s Assam state and on Assam’s southern border is Bangladesh.