Crossfire War – India/Pakistan – Counter Accusations Day After Rival Celebration

Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH – South Asia Theatre: Tehran – Islamabad – Riyadh/Delhi; Day After Independence Celebrations – Pakistan Accuses India of Ceasefire Violation – Five Islamic Militants Killed in Infiltration Attempt Across Line of Control – September War No. IV

Night Watch: DELHI – The morning after rival Independence Day celebrations in Islamabad/Delhi, Pakistan accused India of its first violation of the 2003 ceasefire agreement by claiming Indian troops fired into Pakistan controlled Kashmir in the Poonch sector, which is right on the Line of Control (LoC), just 50 miles due east of Islamabad. Pakistan said the Indian fire killed two youths. India denies the accusation. [SWISSINFO]

In the meantime Indian Army spokesman Hemant Joneja stated, “A heavily armed group was challenged by soldiers near the LoC resulting in a fierce encounter. Five infiltrators were killed and the operation continues.” These incidents and exchanges of fire are occuring just as Delhi has been saying it is seriously considering a policy of “hot pursuit” of Islamic militants into Pakistan’s part of Kashmir. This year Dehli has resumed its verbal assaults on what it states are 59 Islamic terrorist training bases inside Pakistan adjacent to Pakistan regiments.

A “hot pursuit” policy implies that Indian forces will not stop operations at India’s border. Islamabad has stated all along if that ever happens they will be forced to respond. Regular readers of know that I have constantly written that because of the impact of the Khomeini revolution in Iran 1979 the balance in South Asia has shifted in Pakistan’s favor. Both Tehran and Riyadh are in a very real military position to join the next, fourth war. 20 years ago Saudi Arabia purchased from China 50-60 medium range CSS-2 missiles each one with a range of 2,500 miles (4,000 km) and capable of reaching all of India. In December 2004 reported Saudi Arabia had ground forces maneuvers with Pakistan. For years they have been holding naval maneuvers.

In preparation for the next war Tehran has security agreements with Islamabad similar to the one they have with Damascus and they intend to use it to control the economy of northern India. Beijing has made certain that with the massive amounts of ballistic missile technology they had Pyongyang export to Tehran, Iran’s entry into the fourth war will be definitely felt. Most of Iran’s missile technology is derived from the North Korean exports arranged by China. Beijing wants to see a weaker India which will remove one of China’s rivals. That is why for decades Beijing has provided Islamabad with its most consistent military support. The war will begin in September since that is the end of the Monsoon season.

Willard Payne
Willard Payne is an international affairs analyst who specializes in International Relations. A graduate of Western Illinois University with a concentration in East-West Trade and East-West Industrial Cooperation, he has been providing incisive analysis to NewsBlaze. He is the author of Imagery: The Day Before.