Crossfire War – MOSCOW – TSKHINVILI – WASHINGTON WATCH – South Caucasus Theatre: Moscow – Berlin – Washington – Yerevan – Baku – Sukhumi – Tskhinvili/Tbilisi – Ankara – Tehran; Bush – Putin Unofficially Declare War on Iran – Concern Over Nuclear Weapons – Ballistic Missile Program
Night Watch: TBILISI – As suspected U. S. President George W. Bush and Russia President Vladimir Putin used the Maine summit to mainly discuss Tehran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, which both governments were forced to take more seriously during Iran’s year long maneuvers in 2006 and early this year. Bush and Putin even mentioned their concern publicly though of course did not mention any joint military operations against Iran now being prepared in the South Caucasus through Georgia. Former U. S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger and former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov in their joint strategic working group are carrying out the details. Kissinger arrived in Moscow in late April and late last week fighting broke out between South Ossetia and Georgia. South Ossetia is supported by Moscow-Berlin-Washington while Georgia is supported by Ankara-Tehran. Influence in the world energy markets is at the center of the war in this theatre as the Caucasus is a crossroads of energy pipelines between the Black and Caspian Sea. [SERBIANNA]
AP carried this statement from President Bush, “When Russia and the United States speak along the same lines, it tends to have an effect and therefore I appreciate the Russians’ attitude in the United Nations. We’re close to recognizing that we got to work together to send a common message.” President Putin added “…we will continue to be successful.” Putin then mentioned both governments would work through the United Nations Security-Council. Both heads of state of course realize it will take more than statements and resolutions through the UN or bad press to defeat Tehran. And that whatever amount of nuclear material and ballistic warheads Tehran has accumulated since 1986 Iran is definitely going to use. Bush-Putin may even know the West is the main target as is India in support of Pakistan and the Muslims in Kashmir.
I can imagine the “effect” this “common message” is now having in Tehran, especially in its Defense and Foreign Ministry. Tehran may have been fooled by the loud controversy the Bush administration staged with Putin and the Kremlin over the missile defense issue, to the extent where a lot of commentators and analysts actually believed another Cold War had begun, especially when Putin said Moscow would have to target Europe. In the meantime, there were indeed serious differences over Kosovo, but Russia-Europe-US know they are all in the same industrialized economic boat and have to retain access to raw materials wherever they exist and that Tehran is more of an obstacle to that than Kosovo. However, how do you fool Tehran into thinking Washington-Russia will never have any serious military cooperation? You simply rehearse and rehash the old Cold War rhetoric both sides used, for forty-five years, to justify research and experimenting the latest bomb or missile. This also has to be given a huge amount of publicity, which is then used as a cover to sneak Dr. Kissinger into Moscow, the highest-level liaison on the command level, between Washington and the Kremlin.
Therefore, I suspect the effect in Tehran will be their decision to increase their terrorist campaign and military planning for war against Iran’s two main enemies, the West-India, both of them being Tehran’s main economic rivals. Late last week may have been the beginning of a more intense terror campaign with these incidents in London-Glasgow. Tehran has also been making overtures that are more military to both Albania and Croatia, which will be used to arm and encourage nationalists in both countries to attack the international military occupation that is hated by all nationalists throughout Southeast Europe. In the meantime, Islamic militants in bases in Pakistan and Bangladesh will be prepared for major action later this summer at the end of the monsoon. That was already suspected by Indian Army intelligence. Tehran is prepared to send its armed forces into both theatres.
I suspect Putin may have informed the Bush administration of the meetings he has had with Saudi King Abdullah. Those discussions, and from Moscow’s new increased contacts with Islamic governments, definitely sent the message Arab governments and Tehran are quite willing to have close relations with Russia after the war. Though there are some disputes between them in the Caucasus they can be resolved with joint economic planning, but Moscow first has to convince them Russia can defeat groups and governments there that are supported by Ankara-Tehran. Georgia is the last obstacle and if the “united front” presented by Bush-Putin is coordinated and effective, especially if it avoids overkill, then before this year is over Moscow-Tehran will enter serious negotiations to end the war, though the West will still have to contend with whatever Tehran sent through the Balkans.
The real “effect” is the war is about to increase dramatically.