The Brexit shock of 2016 and the chaos of the UK General Election vote a year later led to a turbulent time for politics in Great Britain. The withdrawal from the EU remains a protracted and unclear process at times but, while the end is not in sight just yet, it finally it looks as if the country is heading for a period of relative stability.
That will come as good news for a population that are getting seriously tired of Brexit and all its implications. Even many of those who voted to stay in the EU will be glad when the process is at and end and they can pick up a newspaper or go online without having to hear any more about it.
While the unrest continued, the UK economy faced uncertain times but one area that took an instant hit was the currency markets. The pound plummeted against the Dollar, the Euro and all other major currencies around the globe and forex traders entered a busy period as a result.
In recent weeks, the Trump Presidency has had its own issues and the Pound has held relatively firm against it as a result. With the Euro however, European elections have only led to stability: Political bettors may be looking for the next shock post Trump and Brexit but in Germany, France and the Netherlands, the favourites in each case have been elected so there has been no political instability and no concerns over the Euro’s strength in any of the currency markets in the weeks following those elections.
Hold on to Power
For the stability to remain post-Brexit, the next issue for this minority Conservative government is to stay in power and avoid the possibility of another General Election. Calls for another poll are a little quieter but the potential for another vote in 2018 remains.
Any form of unrest could also have an impact on the exchange rates so current Prime Minister Theresa May will also want to avoid a leadership battle. Calls for May to step down after her ill-judged election announcement continue to filter through the news feeds and despite remaining such a controversial figure, suggestions that Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will take over are still occupying a fair amount of column inches.
That may never materialise but the point is that the UK is desperate for a period of stability. May’s speech on Brexit in Florence is highly unlikely to achieve that for the time being, particularly as it contained reports of an extended period for the UK and the EU to finally part ways.
There isn’t a great deal that can be done with that situation but the current Prime Minister needs to hang on to office for now, no matter how unpopular a decision that may be. This isn’t the strong and stable government that the Tories promised us prior to the June election but any form of continuity is vital in order to avoid further currency falls and an economic disaster.