I hope the Supreme Court grants the Peruta cert petition but that is unlikely to happen. The reasons why the cert petition will likely be denied are many and most of the reasons have been addressed in my earlier articles.
This Monday morning we will know whether or not the Peruta concealed carry cert petition is granted, denied or postponed.
Yesterday (Thursday May 18th) was the third time the Peruta cert petition was considered by the justices in private conference. Most cert petitions do not even make it to their first conference, and nearly 99 percent of cert petitions are summarily denied without ever having been considered by the justices.
The always impressive website SCOTUSblog.com analyzes the probability of cert petitions being granted. The Peruta cert petition was relisted from its first conference which is rare and, for these past few years, almost always the case for cert petitions which are granted.
But the Peruta cert petition was relisted to a second and then a third conference of justices. If the Peruta cert petition is neither denied nor granted Monday morning but is instead relisted for another conference then the probability of the cert petition being granted drops from 93.4% to 6.6%.
So far this term, no cert petition has survived its fourth relist.
The US Supreme Court will release its Orders list at 6:30 AM Pacific Time. The folks at SCOTUSblog have one or more people inside the Supreme Court who live-blog the petitions as they are granted as well as live blogging the opinions of the court as they are released.
Although it is likely that the Peruta cert petition will be denied, the justices may decide to hold off until the Norman v. State of Florida Open Carry cert petition is filed.
And who knows, in the unlikely event that I win my appeal against California’s Open Carry bans before a decision is made to grant or deny the Peruta cert petition, my win would moot the Peruta appeal to SCOTUS.