Poll: Governor Scott Walker Leads Over Trump in Iowa

The latest poll out of Monmouth University, in which they canvassed likely Iowa Republican voters, shows a completely different result to the national Rasmussen poll.

The Monmouth University poll shows Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leading businessman Donald Trump, whereas the Rasmussen poll has Trumnp leading his nearest rival by 10 percent.

Walker only just entered the presidential race, so he still has time to settle in. It was expected that Walker would do well in Iowa, due to its close proximity to Wisconsin, and some have said he could be treated like a “favorite son.”

The Monmouth poll shows Walker with a nine percent lead over the brash Donald, in the home of the first presidential caucus. It was conducted over three days, July 16-19.

The poll, with a 4.6 percent margin of error, placed the candidates’ support at:

  1. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 22 percent
  2. Businessman Donald Trump: 13 percent
  3. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson: 8 percent
  4. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush: 7 percent
  5. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: 7 percent
  6. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 6 percent
  7. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 5 percent
  8. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: 5 percent
  9. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: 4 percent
  10. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum: 3 percent
  11. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry: 3 percent
  12. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina: 3 percent

That is a big field, but there are more coming.

On Tuesday, Ohio Gov. John Kasich entered the race. He will not qualify as a top-tier candidate, and therefore will not get into the first Fox News debate, scheduled for August in Cleveland. Kasich is not an orphan, and will be joined on the sidelines by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former New York Gov. George Pataki, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore. All of these candidates received two percent or less of the vote as the first choice pick for Iowa GOP voters.

Walker timed his entry into the race perfectly, and Iowa placed him in the lead in every major voter category. Those groupings are: tea party supporters, conservatives, evangelicals, men, women, and voters under 50.

Asked how they view Walker, 73 percent of Iowa Republicans said they view him favorably. Governor Walker has held this envious position since January.

Since his comments about John McCain and McCain’s military service, Trump has slipped back in the Iowa polls. The backlash appeared to be significant, but it remains to be seen whether it is only in Iowa.

Patrick Murray, the Monmouth University polling Institute director, talked about the performance of Walker and Trump. He said, “Walker has been a favorite of Iowa voters ever since his well-received appearance at the Iowa Freedom summit in January. More recently, Trump has outmaneuvered the rest of the field to earn the second spot despite his controversial statements over the weekend.”

Dwight L. Schwab Jr. is a moderate conservative who looks at all sides of a story, then speaks his mind. He has written more than 3500 national political and foreign affairs columns. His BS in journalism from the University of Oregon, with minors in political science and American history stands him in good stead for his writing.


Dwight has 30-years in the publishing industry, including ABC/Cap Cities and International Thomson. His first book, “Redistribution of Common Sense – Selective Commentaries on the Obama Administration 2009-2014,” was published in July, 2014. “The Game Changer – America’s Most Stunning Presidential Election in History,” was published in April 2017.


Dwight is a native of Portland, Oregon, and now a resident of the San Francisco Bay Area.