Night Watch: An Indian army official was quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran’s official news service, "Infiltration is likely to increase in view of the melting snow mountain ranges along the LoC (Line of Control) in Jammu and Kashmir. As many as 2000 militants are stationed on launching pads along the LoC, ready to cross to this side to keep the pot of militancy boiling."
He continued, "In the past 10 days, 24 militants have been killed in four major infiltration bids along the LoC. The trend shows infilitration has begun to increase. They could not cross over to J&K due to heavy snow fall in winters and now in the coming days there would be more infiltration attempts. The troops therefore have been put on alert."
Recent incidents show why I never took seriously the "peace talks", "peace bus", or peace cricket matches. They were nothing more than diplomatic camouflage. This past week India’s government stated, publicly, that they still regarded all of Kashmir, even the part controlled by Pakistan, as part of India’s territory. None of the negotiations or ‘peace moves’ ever led to a serious reduction of military units along the border.
On April 26, four militants were killed at Balonie Mendhar in Poonch. Then 10 militants were killed in the Kupwara area near the LoC in Kashmir valley just two days later. Four more were killed in Mendhar area on April 30. On May 3 six militants of Lashker-e-Toiba were killed as they were trying to infliltrate at Krishnagati (Poonch).
Though the Islamic uprising began in November 1989, the same year as the Ayatollah Khomieni’s death, and fighting has continued since, with some very near escalations into all out war, the difference this time is that other Islamic countries are ready to send more than just financial and diplomatic, moral support.
Tehran announced, proudly this week, that the production of their medium range Shahab-3 missile is now entirely made locally and production continues. They are not meant for parading on some anniversary and they are not meant for Israel. The Jihad is too economic to expend anything nuclear or ballistic on the state of the economically insignificant Israel.
Pakistan also seems to have completed testing of its ballistic missile program. In the meantime the House of Saud is waiting to see how accurate the 50-60 CSS-2 missiles are with their 2,500 mile (4,000km) range. They purchased these missiles from Beijing 20 years ago. In December this site mentioned that Riyadh conducted ground forces maneuvers with Islamabad in Pakistan.
I have always suspected the first all out target of the Jihad would be India. It would be impossible for Iran’s Expediency Council to overlook this opportunity to reinstate the Moghul Empire and its control over two-thirds of the country. The Jihad is going to go as far as it can on any front. Fortunately this site has repeated constantly that not all bombs and missiles are going to work. Nothing works as well as advertised. Some will miss and others will be duds, some of course will work. India will make a stand somewhere.
The Council of Guradians will sit back and watch the world’s frantic response as it attempts to at least keep extremely important maritime routes around India open. It took almost seven years for the world to respond to attacks against international shipping in the Persian Gulf during the eight year Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88. The reason the world took its time is because the war was often called a weapon dealers dream. This was also when the world realized they could make more money helping Teheran than Baghdad. The weapons industry will have a field day in this war, World War III, but increasing production takes time and that’s when Iran’s Defence Minister Adm. Ali Shamkani will experience his greatest successes.
Imagine, for instance, the hilarious observations analysts could begin making, especially Islamic ones, that while the war is going on against New Delhi, the US/UK are still sunning themselves in Iraq.
The EU late last year announced India was a strategic partner. Japan has stated that India and Japan should watch China. In the meantime the EU and Japan will have to do whatever they can to maintain access to markets in the region. But with Japan faced with violations of her airspace by China, and the much closer issue of access to the East China Sea, Tokyo’s assistance to New Delhi may have to wait for a year.
To keep the EU occupied with other crisis much closer to home Iran can instruct its contacts in the Balkans to cause disturbances there. That is the reason Teheran established relations with Zagreb in 1992. Iran has stated since then that Croatia is Iran’s entry into Central Europe. Germany therefore has sent to Poland Leopard tanks, the U. S. has helped Poland upgrade her air force and right now Russia is helping Poland upgrade her Soviet era aircraft.
Moscow, which has long had military relations with New Delhi, may still be able to export material to India, unless enemy action prevents it. But, as of a year ago, not one Russian air unit was fully operational. In the meantime fighting has spread east of Chechnya to oil rich Dagestan along the Caspian Sea. Teheran has also openly increased its ties to Tajikistan’s military. Moscow will then be kept extremely busy in Central Asia so any assistance to India, if any, will be extremely limited.