Crossfire War – RAPID FIRE NEWS=JERUSALEM – WASHINGTON – BERLIN WATCH – West Asia Theatre: Israel PM Olmert “Bush Understands the Severity of the Iranian Threat and the Need to Vanquish It” – US National Intelligence Director in Israel for Target Analysis – Pres. Bush to Head for Berlin – Europe on June 10 to Convince Them
Night Watch: WASHINGTON – It seems recent reports on crossfirewar.com the Pentagon was planning only a limited attack on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps bases, which would not include its nuclear facilities, were not accurate.
Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated after his ninety minute meeting with U. S. President George W. Bush, “We reached agreement on the need to take care of the Iranian threat. I left with a lot less questions marks I had entered with regarding the means, the timetable restrictions and American resoluteness to deal with the problem. George Bush understands the severity of the Iranian threat and the need to vanquish it and intends to act on the matter before the end of his term in the White House.
With every day that goes by we get closer to stopping the Iran nuclear plan.” INN reports indicated they discussed military action against Iran’s twenty-two year nuclear weapons program. Olmert concluded by saying it was not good to publicize everything, in other words the details of the timetable and specific targets. [INN]
Those details are probably being plotted and mapped right now as the U. S. Director of National Intelligence (NIE) Admiral Mike McConnell is on a rare visit to Israel to meet Meir Dagan the head of Israel’s foreign intelligence service Mossad, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Admiral McConnell made headlines last year when he presented a study which claimed Iran had discontinued its nuclear weapons program which was a complete reversal of statements from the Bush administration for the past several years.
I suspect Europe’s reluctance to see a (f)allout war with Iran was the reason for the finding last year as some European governments still cling to the hope economic pressure will still be enough to change Tehran’s foreign policy which includes production of ballistic missiles that can reach Europe. An Israeli security official mentioned McConnell’s importance by saying, “This is a person who briefs U. S. President Bush every morning about the security-related reality based upon information collected by the intelligence network and hence his importance for Israel. He is one of the people with the most influence on U. S. foreign policy.” McConnell’s presence in Israel is the most serious indication so far of the nearness of a joint Jerusalem-Washington attack on Iran.
Another Israel security official stated, “The Minister of Defense (Barak) has already told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran continues to develop its nuclear ability, but he will have to prove this to McConnell by showing him intelligence information.” Olmert also met Vice-President Dick Cheney and it was reported the two discussed “operational subjects” which could mean the more important, known nuclear installations in Iran. It is suspected Iran has constructed dummy installations that include tunnels which lead nowhere to confuse satellite photos.
Berlin – The nearest estimate I can make concerning the dates for the attacks would be shortly after President Bush’s four day trip to several European capitals beginning on June 10. PressTV is reporting Bush is to visit: Slovenia, Germany, Italy, the Vatican, France, Britain and Northern Ireland.
Berlin will be the most important visit since Washington increased strategic relations with Germany in 2005 since Berlin is at the center of decision making not only in Western Europe but is also extremely influential in Moscow foreign policy circles even before Berlin sponsored Vladimir Putin to become Russia’s President in 1999. Industrial concerns throughout Germany have been the primary purchaser of Russian raw materials for more than a century.
Germany’s approval of an attack would mean most European efforts to negotiate a peaceful resolution with Tehran are over and Moscow would then be given the go ahead to confront Iran in the South Caucasus. Berlin has long been at the center of the West’s concerns of access to raw materials from areas Iran is attempting to control. [PRESSTV]
It is quite possible Bush’s trip actually means these governments already acknowledge the worst can no longer be avoided and his visit will just make it official. In the meantime the diplomatic charade of economic incentives and proposals by London-Paris-Berlin, with Washington’s support, to persuade Iran to end its weapons production and counter offers from Tehran will continue.
These three European capitals were the ones who led the European Union-EU 3 negotiations with Iran for about four years from 2003 until early last year. The negotiations were briefly disrupted in the summer of 2005 when an Iranian negotiator was seen on Iranian television by a British reporter laughing at the EU. Quite often Tehran would deliberately give the false impression they had suspended uranium production during negotiations with either the EU 3 or the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna in order to mislead the West into thinking the negotiations were accomplishing something. But in reality the negotiator on Iranian television laughingly admitted Iran really didn’t suspend anything and was just using the negotiations to buy time.
London-Paris-Berlin found out Tehran was laughing at them and for a while the EU 3 cancelled some meetings but then resumed them. That should not have been surprising since when the negotiations began it was reported the two sides were talking past each other.
Vienna – Though EU 3 negotiations have ended Iran still has regular meetings with the IAEA but now it seems Tehran is aware Europe no longer has any faith those meetings or investigations will halt any nuclear production either. The investigators were routinely taken on tours of Iranian show sites Tehran wanted them to see. IRNA is now reporting Iran’s Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh is announcing his government’s regret the agency still finds it necessary to investigate Iran’s nuclear production and determine the real nature of it.
“It is regretful that after five years of continuous pro-active cooperation by the Islamic Republic of Iran this issue is still on the Agendas item of the Board of Governors. I recall that at the eve of each meeting of the BG the United States has brought new allegations, supported by couple of its allies in order to undermine and overshadow the progress made during the intercessional period and keep the file open.” This is Tehran’s way of admitting the five year delay and deception of the West has run its course and all that remains now is to see how accurate are the guidance systems of its nuclear ballistic missiles.
Nothing works as well as advertised, some will miss, others will be duds, some of course will hit the target. [IRNA]