Crossfire War – Rapid Fire News=Tehran – Islamabad – Beijing Watch – South Asia Theatre: Pakistan Troops Violate Ceasefire Three Times Thursday-Friday – Indian Troops Return Fire – Nine Indian Soldiers Killed in Bomb Attack on Army Convoy in Kashmir – Hezbollah States War With Israel Still On
Night Watch: GUREZ SECTOR – The following is a direct quote from the daily South Asia Security News Scan compiled by retired India Brigadier-General Rahul Bhonsle, whose website is www.security-risks.com. “Is the Pakistan Army trying to blow the almost five year old ceasefire along the border to smithereens? It certainly seems so, with Pakistani soldiers opening cross-border fire three times in separate incidents which left an Indian soldier injured, along the Line of Control in Jammu & Kashmir on Thursday. Even before Thursday, Pakistani troops have already broken the ceasefire at least four times in the last two-three months. That the cross-border firings often come during infiltration bids also points to the fact that Pakistan Army could well be back to its old strategy of providing “cover fire” to militants trying to sneak into J&K. The first incident on Thursday took place in the Gurez of North Kashmir around 9am when Pakistani forces fired two bursts of small arms at an Indian post opposite Chakwali. “We did not retaliate…there was no damage,” said an officer. The second violation occurred when around 20 rounds were fired at an Indian post in the Bimbergali sector opposite the Pakistani post in the Nikial area at 11:30am. “One of our NCO’s (non-commissioned officer) was hit and rushed to the military hospital,” the officer said. Around 1:30am another 40 rounds were fired in the same sector at a different post, with Indian troops retaliating this time to the cross-border firing. “There were no casualties,” he added.”
This “cover fire” is the vanguard of Pakistan President-General Pervez Musharraf’s “Action Plan” which he presented to Tehran in Feb. 2007. Of course the plan is offensive and is strictly designed to set off the fourth war since 1947 between India/Pakistan with Musharraf being a veteran of two of them, 1965 and 1971. What is going on now is quite possibly the most direct firings between Pakistan/Indian troops since 1971 and will force Delhi to implement its “hot pursuit” policy and attack the Pakistani units and militant bases inside Pakistan’s part of Kashmir. When that happens the fourth war will be well underway.
But it is no longer a conflict confined to Pakistan/India. Tehran not only supports the Action Plan but has prepared to enter and this escalation began just when the most powerful decision making body in Iran, the Council of Guardians, visited Pakistan in May, the month when fighting increases due to the melting of the snow. But this is not the usual infiltration of just a few Islamic militants of two or three, but units of ten-twenty coupled with bomb attacks inside Kashmir. At the same time Islamabad participates in the diplomatic charade of confidence building measures (CBM) with Dehli on Kashmir and Tehran still promotes what it has contemptuously called its” pipeline of peace,” the oil pipeline project between Iran-Pakistan/India. The highly publicized meetings are used as a cover for Iran-Pakistan’s military cooperation.
In the meantime Beijing is also prepared to take advantage of the fourth war by re-invading India’s northeast state of Arunachal Pradesh which China invaded for one month in Oct. 1962. Two years ago China’s Ambassador to India stated publicly Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory. Delhi has strengthened its defenses there this year saying there will be no repeat of 1962 and the advances China’s army was able to make that month south into Assam state on the Bay of Bengal.
Srinagar – At least nine Indian soldiers have been killed and twenty-five wounded when an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated beneath and India Army convoy on the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad Road, which leads into the area of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan. This is the type of weapon Iran has enabled Islamic groups in Iraq use to great effectiveness and now Tehran has trained operatives in Kashmir. KONS reports the death toll may increase and the Islamic group, Hizbul Mujahiddn, has claimed responsibility. Eyewitnesses report the explosion took place at the crowded Narbal crossing on the outskirts of Srinagar. [KONS]
Banihal – The day before at lest thirty-six people were injured when militants hurled a grenade at a Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) patrol party in Banihal. The Gulf-Times/Agencies report mostly women and children were injured with no group claiming responsibility. An attack this far south, 110 miles north of Jammu, is unusual since most of the fighting takes place north in Kashmir. Jammu city is right on Pakistan’s border and Banihal is the last major town before entering Kashmir valley. A police official stated, “We suspect that they might be a new group of infiltrators who have managed to reach Banihal.” [GULFTIMES]
Beirut – The Jerusalem Post reports an interview given by the Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Kassem, to the Qatari newspaper Al-Arab, where he stated Hezbollah is in a state of war with Israel due to Israel still occupying the village of Ghajar, the Shaba farms on the Lebanon-Syria/Israel border and the Kfar Shuba hills (Mt. Dov near Mt. Hermon) in the same disputed border region. Significantly Kassem added and perhaps with some degree of worry, “Israel continues to infiltrate Lebanese airspace and this poses a real threat.” I assume Kassem, and Hezbollah’s leadership, are aware pre-emptive strikes and preventive wars (invading first) are part of Israel’s Security Doctrine meaning this could be Kassem’s last interview as Jerusalem also targets the enemy leadership. That is why Hezbollah’s leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah made a brief public appearance at the prisoner exchange celebration and he was constantly looking over his shoulder. He has to spend almost all of his time in bunkers and usually addresses his followers through a large outdoor video screen. And it is quite possible the Israel Air Force (IAF) most recent over flights of south Lebanon were actually target selection as Israel expects Hezbollah to launch an attack at any moment unless the Israel Defense Force (IDF) is ordered to put Hezbollah-Lebanon-Syria on the defensive. That is the only way to disrupt Tehran’s timetable. [JPOST]
There is an excellent chance Jerusalem could decide to do so since their most impressive victory was achieved in only six days in June 1967 when Israel decided to attack first and that is how they were able to occupy these areas and increase their security.
Geneva – This news video provided by France24/Reuters shows the revolving door, circus negotiations production which have been conducted by Tehran for the past several years over its nuclear weapons production, a nuclear program Tehran constantly states is for peace. This latest round has just ended in Geneva and the European Union Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana said afterward, “We have not got a clear answer…we didn’t get an answer ‘yes’ or ‘no’ and that we hope that it will be given soon.” Tehran’s sphinx like lead negotiator Saeed Jalili said he had “positive intentions” but if he had spoken more frankly he would have admitted he has positive instructions to continue to engage in the duplicitous, deceptive negotiation tactics the Persian mentality is an expert in with the use of the half-truth designed to create confusion in the mind of the enemy. Yes we have a nuclear program but it’s for peace but perhaps some arrangements could be made which will lead to peaceful relations while in reality Iran’s continues its nuclear warhead production which will be mainly targeted at Western Europe including countries with representatives at the negotiations. [FRANCE24]
The governments taking part in the negotiations are now called The Sextet: France-Germany-Britain-US-Russia/China-Iran and Beijing hopes Tehran’s offensive foreign policy will be so successful that three of China’s rivals will become weaker, the West-India-Russia which is why Beijing never has supported the anti-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, but only paid lip service to it. A lip service they are continuing by saying they hope for a peaceful resolution to this issue.
Tehran’s real answer will be when it enters regional wars including the next one in Southeast Europe over Kosovo. Then the only question will be how accurate are the guidance systems and fortunately not all of the warheads and missiles will work perfectly.