Crossfire War – Mubarak Encircled – Summoned to Tripoli – Wednesday

Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH – Northeast Africa Theatre: Tehran – Khartoum – Riyadh – Tripoli/Cairo; Mubarak Summoned to Tripoli by Gaddafi – Final Jihad Overture (Call) for Mubarak to Support Jihad – Unity – Mubarak Encircled

Night Watch: TRIPOLI – AKI reports that Egypt President Hosni Mubarak will visit Libya head of state Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli on Wednesday. Officially they will supposedly emphasize the situation in Darfur, but their real concentration will be on other topics their governments mentioned: Khartoum’s regional relations, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. [AKI]

In reality this trip is more of a summons by Gaddafi in response to events to the one Islamic head of state who has done nothing to support the Jihad, the recent and current confrontational relationships the Islamic world has been having with the West since the Khomeini revolution in Iran 1979. Every Islamic government saw the potential in the foreign policy of the fundamentalists which openly called for war with Islam’s enemies and they knew Islam did not have to look far, just to its oldest rival the West.

The one exception to this awareness has been Mubarak and for reasons explained in countless previous articles. Islamic fundamentalists assassinated his predecessor Anwar Sadat in 1981, just two years after the Islamic revolution and Tehran named a street after the assassin, so under no circumstances will President Mubarak give, what he will probably call, legitimacy to Islamic radicals. He has never shown any hesitancy to arrest those he thinks are a serious threat to him and his administration.

But Colonel Gaddafi may be confronting Mubarak with the regional reality they are now living in, the call of the Jihad has been answered and the Islamic world, under Tehran’s guidance, is now ready to see how successful it will be militarily. Mubarak is no stranger to this overture, for the past several years virtually every regional head of state – ambassador-envoy-foreign minister including from Iran has confronted him with the new confrontational relationship – war, power struggle, with the West, including the head of the Arab League not to mention the statements made at OIC (Organization of Islamic States) gatherings, even the ones in Malaysia.

They are all aware Mubarak still has military cooperation agreements with the West in the form of Operation Bright Star, the maneuvers Egypt has been conducting with the West in the Eastern Mediterranean since the early 1980’s, and now the West wants to extend that by having European forces increase their military presence, in this regional theatre, through Lebanon under UNIFIL. Lebanon is therefore definitely more of a topic of discussion in Tripoli than the situation in Darfur. If Sudan is mentioned at all it will be an acknowledgement that Khartoum is prepared to support the next wave of fighting that may start against Israel but will concentrate primarily on UNIFIL and Rome, the European capital that is leading them into Lebanon as a result of the Rome Conference convened right after the ceasefire in August.

Gaddafi may also point out the obvious situation in Iraq which has never gone in favor of the lost alliance of London-Washington and their economic occupation scheme that assumed they could control Iraq’s economy with no serious military challenge to it. U. S. President George W. Bush, when he was informed there are those opposed to the occuapation replied, “Bring them on.” They obviously came and still are. After that topic is addressed and reviewed, dismissed, Gaddafi may inquire if Mubarak ever shared any of these illusions of the West that has long taken for granted their ability to do as they pleased in the region. The Colonel may mention such illusions, however impressively promoted, are dangerous for anyone who supports them, in or out of the region.

I suspect however the Colonel also knows, as do other regional governments, that Mubarak has no exile in mind, he is not King Farouk, who died in exile in Rome in 1965 after being ousted from power in 1952, by the same political forces, revolving around the Muslim Brotherhood, that are experiencing increased support for them even before the first wave of fighting against Israel and even more so since then. But despite the increased popularity for the Jihad among Egypt’s population Mubarak might mention that the armed forces are still very much with him and that therefore any attempt to overthrow him will be very consequential for those in Egypt or for their outside supporters, even if their support comes from another Islamic government.

In 1993 Mubarak received word that Iranian naval warships were near Port Sudan in the Red Sea, an area of dispute between Khartoum and Cairo. Mubarak then stated that if the ships used the port Egypt will attack them. Iran’s ships did not. That same year Mubarak then toured the Persian Gulf capitals in an attempt to isolate Iran but he met with no success. Tehran, over the years, would still send their foreign minister to Cairo to try to reinstitute relations between Iran/Egypt but Mubarak refused them all.

So this is the final overture, this meeting, confrontation with the regional situation, and Mubarak’s continued lack of support, which Gaddafi will report to Islamic governments, it will sweep Mubarak away when the next wave of fighting begins. When the uprising of support for the next wave increases in Egypt, calling for Mubarak’s ouster, due to his lack of responsiveness, he will have his military attack Iranian forces in the area instead of Egyptian demonstrators. Tripoli-Khartoum-Riyadh-Tehran will then concentrate their regional forces on Cairo-Mubarak rather than on Jerusalem. Europe and Washington will be too busy in Iraq-Persian Gulf-Lebanon-Balkans-Afghanistan to assist him.

Two weeks after Saddam Hussein was removed, three years ago, there was a lot of speculation as to what happened to the state treasures which were looted from Baghdad museums. Reuters then reported that a lot of it wound up in Tehran. Imagine what the voracious Persian mentality can loot out of Cairo.

Willard Payne
Willard Payne is an international affairs analyst who specializes in International Relations. A graduate of Western Illinois University with a concentration in East-West Trade and East-West Industrial Cooperation, he has been providing incisive analysis to NewsBlaze. He is the author of Imagery: The Day Before.