Crossfire War – RAPID FIRE NEWS=TEHRAN – ATHENS – ANKARA WATCH – Southeast Europe Theatre: Iran President Ahmadinejad Scheduled to Arrive in Turkey Late August – Official Ceremony of Regional Military Cooperation and Movement of Iranian Units Through Turkey in Support of Serbia – Serbian Government Loses Popular Support with Karadzic Arrest
Night Watch: ANKARA – One of my greatest suspicions has been the Turkish government is a secret partner in Iran’s offensive foreign policy knowing if Tehran was successful then Ankara and other Islamic governments would become the premier power bloc in international affairs. But in order to masque its military planning with Iran, Ankara maintains the facade of close cooperation with the West through NATO and Turkey is pretending to play an important mediator in Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the West in Geneva-Vienna. But behind the facade there have been numerous indications in the news, since the end of the Cold War in 1990, of Ankara-Tehran having privately acknowledged the enormous potential of strategic (military) cooperation between the two even with foreign policy officials from both countries going so far as to say openly the Turkey-Iran Axis has the potential to be the most strategic in the world. And what foreign policy officials say publicly is a cover for military-industrial preparations (as quietly as possible) to make that a reality to the extent where defeated enemies acknowledge it.
Moscow is very well aware of the serious military cooperation between the two which became obvious to Russia as both Ankara-Tehran supported Islamic units in the North Caucasus in Chechnya in 1994 and for the next ten years, Islamic groups which first defeated Russia in 1996 until serious military reforms were made under President Vladimir Putin in 1999 and afterward. Now Turkey-Iran have shifted their support to the Georgian government in Tbilisi in the South Caucasus as Ankara-Tehran hope Georgia can be successful enough to prevent Moscow from controlling the oil and gas resources in the region and the network of pipelines that crisscross between the Black and Caspian Sea.
I suspect Turkey-Iran actually realize Russia will defeat Georgia without to much difficulty but in the meantime the main enemy of the Jihad, the West has got to be attacked and the strategic axis of Turkey-Iran revealed. They know the West has got to be attacked with more than just some Islamic units in Bosnia and by a re-armed Serbia which signed a security agreement with Tehran in 2006 as did Athens. And in February 2007 an Iranian ballistic missile expert General Alireza Asqhari disappeared into Turkey.
Moscow is monitoring these machinations very closely especially Pytor Goncharov, a commentator with the Russian news service RIA who reported Iran’s lead nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili when he left Geneva after negotiations with the U.S-EU, he first stopped in Ankara and met Turkey Foreign Minister Ali Babacan. Of course their is no word on what the two discussed but quite possibly Saeed informed him the West had run out of patience and it was no longer possible to fool them. Therefore the military response must be put into motion, something which of course had been planned for sometime. Goncharov writes, “It would be an understatement to say that Ankara and Tehran can profit from an alliance.” The alliance the two governments have envisioned is as much of an economic alliance as a military one but the military success has to come first. [RIA]
Babacan then met, on the same day, the Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, in Ankara and afterward Babacan the left for Washington where in no way did he say the same thing as he did to Mottaki. In Washington I assume Babacan acted his part of trying to convince the U.S., which never believed in negotiations to begin with, that perhaps some compromise on the nuclear issue could be reached. But with Mottaki he probably agreed it is time to set the military machine in motion and with official approval. And to justify the strategic axis Iran would have to be under attack, at least the blockade the U.S.-UK-France are practicing right now in the Atlantic and it would also be convenient if Serbia were at war with NATO’s KFOR units in Kosovo.
Turkish Daily News is now reporting Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is scheduled to arrive in Ankara late August at the express invitation of Turkey President Abdullah Gul. Discussions of the program and content of the meetings are now being planned by diplomats and officials of both countries and I suspect the summit will be used to issue joint communiques of support not only for both countries but also for regional axis partners including Serbia. By late August fighting could have resumed over Kosovo with Albanians in the province attacking Serbian institutions, something Tehran could have encouraged knowing Belgrade would respond with support from Athens then Tehran. What Iran would want from the Turkish government is the approval to send military units through Turkey enroute to Vienna, the base of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran never welcomed their attention which is why Vienna could be the first target of Iran’s ballistic missiles and their nuclear warheads. Athens would not mind at all if KFOR is defeated and will probably tell Brussels, NATO headquarters, where they can go. And Ankara has long viewed Vienna as a historical rival for regional influence. [TDN]
B92 reports the Serbian government has lost a lot of popular support with the recent arrest of Radovan Karadzic the Bosnian Serb leader during the first phase of the Balkan war from 1991-95. He was also popular in Greece and with his arrests riots and demonstrations began in Belgrade almost immediately. The arrest was made with the complete cooperation of the Serbia President Boris Tadic and he used it as a sign he wants Serbia to have full cooperation with the Europen Union. It is not surprising the arrest was made after the Serbian election because if Tadic had permitted it before the election he would have lost. [B92]
Now one of the officials in the Serbia Radical Party (SRS), one of the most popular parties in the country, is now making serious threats against President Tadic saying he has betrayed the country. The warnings are being made by Vjerica Radeta and she warned, “Betrayal has never gone unpunished in Serbia.” Radeta added the demonstrations were actually a protest against the Tadic dictatorship. “We are not threatening, but warning of the curse that has followed all traitors in Serbian history. We’re reminding him of the fall of the Obrenovic dynasty and we would tell our current autocrats that perhaps not all of them will have the same luck as Zoran Dindic. God punishes to the seventh generation and he should be mindful of this.”
Radeta added the SRS is calling on the Serbian Orthodox Church to give their opinion because only they had the right and obligation under church canon to banish traitors from the church and cast anathemas on them. The Orthodox Church has enormous influence on the Serbian population and could lead to Tadic’s immediate removal even violently.
The Serbian Obrenovic dynasty of the 19th century provided Serbia with five kings with the last one assassinated in 1903. Dindic was also assassinated and it is amazing the parallels that exist in history. World War I was set off by an assassination in the Serbian city of Sarajevo in 1914. Though World War III began in 1994 it has not quite become full scale but with the removal of a Serbian head of state closely working with NATO-EU and replaced by a popular radical-nationalistic government, major fighting would indeed begin again and a lot heavier than in 1991-95.
One of the reasons I date the beginning of World War III with 1994 is that is when NATO began its air campaign against Bosnian Serbs led by Radovan Karadzic. NATO governments made Karadzic’s and Bosnian Serb victories possible by imposing an arms embargo against the Muslim government in Sarajevo.