Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH -Global Theatre: Tehran – Damascus – Rabat – Algiers – Tripoli – Khartoum – Islamabad – Tbilisi – Athens – Ankara – Belgrade – Beijing/Jerusalem – Cairo – London – Washington – Paris – Brussels – Berlin – Rome – Warsaw – Moscow – Delhi – Canberra – Singapore – Tokyo; “War Clouds Thicken on the Horizon” – Amir Taheri – Asharq Al-Awsat – 2007 Operational Year – Tehran Activates Security Agreements – Judgment Day Response
Night Watch: TEHRAN – Journalist, editor and author Amir Taheri, of Asharq al-Awsat, has asked the most important question right now and it will definitely be answered by Tehran in the coming operational year, 2007 when Tehran activates its three strategic security agreements in response to the enemy world around them and West Asia (Middle East). The security – defense arrangements Tehran has forged with Damascus, Islamabad and Belgrade in addition to their support for Tbilisi in its current military standoff with Moscow. That support has dramatically increased Georgia’s defense budget. Regular readers of crossfirewar.com know that I have been chronicling Tehran’s preparations ever since crossfirewar.com’s creation in November 2004. [ASHARQALAWSAT]
All the preparations Tehran has made was with the massive assistance of Beijing, either directly or through Pyongyang, with the strategic-military purpose of removing the West’s influence from the affairs of the region and exploring the economic potential of northern India by activating its security agreements with Islamabad, in a massive way, during its next war with Delhi. Those are the two primary objectives of Tehran’s war effort. Beijing’s reason for providing Iran and the Islamic world’s with its most important advanced weapon systems was in realizing that if Tehran is successful then some of China’s rivals will be weaker, the West-India-Russia. That is why Beijing never genuinely supported the anti-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Crossfirewar.com reported, last spring, 4-27-06, the article linked from Asharq al-Awsat, on Tehran’s Judgment Day military response if it were attacked first by either Israel or the U. S. I assume that strategy is still in place no matter who attacks first, either the Allies or Tehran. Judgment Day involves the use of terror cells in North America and Europe. But Tehran’s ultimate terror weapon will be its ballistic missile program, the Shahab series, which by now could perhaps reach Rome. 2007 will answer the question as to how far Tehran has gotten in developing ballistic missiles, even perhaps with an intercontinental range and if the satellites they launched through Russia more than a year ago have any military application, laser for instance. In 1987 U. S. Defence Secretary Casper Weinberger mentioned at a press conference that laser can be used to set cities on fire and that the Soviet Union was testing them somewhere in the Middle East. He did not say where so I assumed Afghanistan.
That was the year of the Iran-Contra scandal, when the fast buck artist Reagan administration, was caught selling weapons to Tehran’s government headed by the Ayatollah Khomeini. The West and Russia, realized during the eight year Iran/Iraq War 1980-88, that they could make more money supporting Tehran’s war effort than Baghdad. In making themselves so available they ignored the spreading of Islamic fundamentalist’s beliefs all over the Islamic world from Morocco to the Philippines. The best discussion on the impact of Khomeini and on the Khomeini revolution itself is Amir Taheri’s definitive work the Spirit of Allah published in 1985 and may still be available through Amazon.com.
The impact of Khomeini has reduced the tendency of governments in the region to only compete with each other and blow themselves up. The main target since Khomeini is the world around them. But warnings to that effect for more then 20 years were constantly ignored until it finally dawned on the Allies during the past couple of years that Tehran has no intention of ceasing its preparations for (f)allout war against them. So, as crossfirewar.com just reported, Berlin has airlifted hundreds of pounds of enriched uranium to Russia. Germany has also sent Leopard tanks to Poland, the U. S. has upgraded Poland’s air force with F-16s and Russia has been helping Poland upgrade its Soviet era military aircraft. That is why when the news recently showed President George W. Bush and his advisors at his Texas retreat, the Vice-President and the Secretaries of State – Defense, they looked like they had been sentenced to the gallows. This is not what they were told would happen or had been programmed to project.
It was no secret Khomeini was able to conduct and lead the revolution from the Paris suburb he was living in from October 1978 – February 1979 and the reason he was there was not because the phones work in Paris, but because investment societies in France, the West and state enterprises Russia did not believe his influence would go beyond Central Asia. His arrival was a follow up to established network media in the West having turned against the Shah in 1977 subverting his administration. Her Majesty, the former Empress Farah Pahlavi, the Shah’s widow – in – exile, mentioned in her book-dossier, An Enduring Love, that “On January 4, 1979, Jimmy Carter, President of the United States, the German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, the British Prime Minister Leonard Callaghan and the French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing met in Guadelopue, where they decided to support a regime change in Iran.” (page 305). She also mentioned, “At that time General Robert E. Huyser arrived in Tehran (January 5, 1979). There was nothing out of the ordinary as such as his coming, as Iran was a member of CENTO (Central Treaty Organization). I later learned that his task was to ask the army to remain neutral. Many years later, General Alexander Haig, the chief of NATO, told me that he had resigned in protest against General Huyser’s mission. In his opinion, the army should have acted to prevent Iran from sliding into chaos. General Haig thought that it was essential to maintain stability in the region.” (page 292)
Of course what Her Majesty was not told was that neither the West nor Russia wants to see a powerful country in West Asia since that would make it harder to manipulate the region. And that instability there would provide Moscow its excuse to make more invasion moves to the south through Iran toward the Persian Gulf in the name of stability. That would put the Soviet Union, with its inexpensive communist labor, mining and shipping more inexpensive raw materials to the West since communist labor isn’t paid much. But what the West-Russia did not realize was that at the end of the Cold War in 1990, it was Russian scientists which moved south taking every advanced weapon system they knew with them.
That same year London-Washington put themselves at the disposal of Tehran, as a follow up to the Iran – Contra scandal and had their state agent Saddam Hussein, whose facsimile has just been hung, invade Kuwait. After doing damage to Iraq’s military in the “rescue” of Kuwait, CNN showed the London branch office of the San Francisco based engineering service, invited to Iran. They went through London because Britain’s establishment decided to have no embargo against Iran and obviously their American cousins decided to go along with it. Former Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger said at the time the Gulf War ended, on the Sunday morning news show This Week, that he was worried about a deal that could cause a worse war a few years later.
World War III did indeed begin a few year later in February 1994, with the announcement by Russian units in Tajikistan that they were on a frontline fighting Islamic fundamentalists. It was an open secret they were supported by Tehran and perhaps by Ankara also. That spring NATO set the stage for its own defeat by expanding the war in the Balkans, putting themselves completely out of position, with its air strikes against Bosnian Serbs. Brussels will have virtually no impact on any other front. Its bases in Afghanistan should have been used to attack Iran. In 1994 Tehran had Hezbollah launch attacks against Israel. The Islamic uprising in Kashmir that began in November 1989, with the full support of Islamabad-Tehran, intensified that same year and in December Chechnya erupted. War has been increasing and spreading on all those fronts ever since but not quite (f)allout.
Earlier this year Iran’s Defense Ministry stated they were ready to defeat Iran’s enemies and with their economic-military priorities Tehran has no interest in the futures market for salt in the Dead Sea, but for the future of oil and gas in the Caspian and global energy markets. Iran has conducted large scale war-game maneuvers all this year and they know more British and American warships are right now enroute toward the Persian Gulf scheduled to arrive in early January. Recently the head of Iran’s Navy stated the Allies are facing what he called a “strategic ambush.” In the December 2006 issue of Seapower magazine, published by the Navy League of the United States, the magazine’s Associate Editor Matt Hilburn’s article on Iran’s growing navy, “Asymmetric Strategy” he mentions that though Iran’s navy is not nearly as powerful as that of the U. S. they can attack with a swarm of a hundred small boats “coming at all angles.” They will also be operating right off their coasts with air and anti-ship missile support. Iran will be in effect its own aircraft carrier.
The Allies should not count on any military support from moderate Islamic governments in the Persian Gulf since they want the Jihad to be moderately successful in removing the West’s influence in the affairs of the entire West Asia region, something the Shah of Iran warned the West would happen if his dynasty was overthrown. A lot of the Jihad financing has been coming from them and the House of Saud will test the accuracy of their 50-60 CSS-2 ballistic missiles they purchased from Beijing 20 years ago, that are housed in facilities constructed by the same engineering firm Tehran hired after the Gulf War. The CSS-2 has a 2,500 mile (4,000 km) range enabling them to hit targets in the West-Russia-India. Riyadh-Tehran have been working in perfect tandem which is why 15 of the 19 on 9-11 operation were from Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud, the Taliban with money, were waiting for Tehran to be ready and they will conduct and direct the Jihad in the name of stability. They intend to destroy the West’s ability to engage in further destabilizing schemes and conspiracies directed at them and the region.
Fortunately not all bombs and missiles of any kind are going to work. Several years ago, in the late 1990s, CNN showed a stockpile of American nuclear warheads at some base out West. They were all rusty. Nothing works as well as advertised, certainly not mass production. The same is true of any nation’s arsenal. An imperfect global civilization cannot manufacture perfect weaponry. Some will miss and others will be duds, including conventional weapons. It is civilizations failure that is one of the reasons it will survive this war.
Hopefully before 2007 is over, provided Moscow responds effectively enough against Tbilisi in the South Caucasus, will cause Tehran to enter into serious negotiations to end this war. I estimate Tehran has prepared and trained enough units for one year of offensive warfare. Crossfire War will then monitor the post-World War III world.