Climate Change Evident Impacts: Melting Glaciers and Island Vulnerability
When considering whether there really is a scientific consensus on climate change, consider that the only people who are actually qualified to determine if it is real are climate scientists, not weather reporters or random people on the Internet.
However, there are a few respected researchers who do not think the world is warming, one is quoted below. He is not just a random blogger but an eminent researcher although not a theoretician or climatologist.
So, what do actual climate scientists think?
The consensus of 3,997 climate scientists out of 4,000 peer reviewed journal articles say climate change is real.
A major controversy is whether human activity has caused this. That seems proven but ignore that and concentrate on the facts showing massive changes in the weather just in the past few years, as predicted by climatologists decades ago. The only problem with their forecasts has been that the worst case projections have proven to have underestimated the danger and the results. When you hear that the projections were wrong that is true, but only because things are worse than predicted, not better.
Also, a significant majority of climate scientists (climatologists), often cited as 97-99.9%, agree that human activities, particularly the release of greenhouse gases, are
the main cause of the observed warming of the Earth’s climate.
Meteorologists, the guys who say whether it will rain tomorrow are also scientists and do great job, but they understand weather NOW, climate scientists understand the Climate, which is weather over thousands of years.
Recently some meteorologists from TV stations have been fired or threatened for warning that some storms would be especially bad. They were proven correct but still received death threats.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/16/chris-gloninger-tv-weather-man-climate-crisis
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/27/1184461263/iowa-meteorologist-harassment-climate-change-quits
The American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Chemical Society, the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society, and the
American Physical Society, among others, all recognize the human influence on climate
change.
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2021/10/more-999-studies-agree-humans-caused-climate-change
https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/scientific-consensus/
https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/do-scientists-agree-on-climate-change/
There are another 76 references following this research article. They were explored and used to produce the article.
The very last one is from NYC and explains that they already have sunny day flooding, that is, normal non storm days the ocean is higher and regularly floods occupied lands.
Since 1850 the sea level at NYC, which is on bedrock so it isn’t subsiding much, has seen an 18 inch rise and predicts several more feet of sea level rise at NYC in 2050.
It doesn’t take a scientist or geologist to see NYC is mainly built on bedrock, you can only build skyscrapers to last on very stable ground, preferably bedrock.
Some non-climatologists who are well informed do not believe that the earth is warming or that we have unusual climate change. They cite errors in some studies and some fraud which has occurred.
One famous climate denier with years of well documented scientific research for organizations including many contracts with NASA. A statement from him after he saw this report is inserted at the end of this research before the references.
This sincere and passionate message at the top of the report is not related to this research but is an email to me and he knows I believe in climate change, even writing a decades ago predicting that governments would do nothing about climate change – every government signing the Paris Agreement has violated their promise every year since agreeing to reduce pollution, the US recently withdrew from the Paris Agreement, but that makes no difference and is only symbolic – my book recommended skipping efforts to convince governments and begin mitigation. “Preparing for Climate Change: Coastal flooding will cost the U.S. billions of dollars within two decades.”
The impact of the heat island effect on temperature has long been recognized. This is why in 2005 NOAA began the US Climate Reference Network by placing 114 advanced weather stations at rural sites across the US, including one I serviced for them at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory. Thus far these stations, which are unaffected by heat islands, show so little warming that a trend line is not placed across a graph of the data posted online each month. ChatGPT states that NOAA avoids a trend line since 20 years is not a lengthy record. However, ChatGPT fails to mention that many long-term temperature graphs are contaminated by bad data.
Finally, the major problem with climate models is their failure to accommodate natural warming and cooling over which we have no control. For example, significant warming occurred during the medieval warm period from 700 to 1300. The solar cycle peaked during this period, as it also did during the Roman period and is peaking again now. History clearly shows that warming eras were accompanied by major societal advances, while cooling caused significant disasters. We are now experiencing a warming period. Let us hope that the cooling that is sure to follow the present warming period will be less troublesome than prior cooling eras.” -END- there is a further statement near the end of the article.
A recent survey shows that more than 60% of U.S. residents now believe in climate change and the percentage has been increasing every year.
Farmers have seen changes in planting times and temperatures as well as lack of rain, all unusual. Others see regular slight flooding in coastal areas when there are no storms while others see that insurance companies are refusing to cover many areas due to changed storm patterns.
The research below was compiled by Google Gemini Advanced Deep Research.
While AI can produce weird results when asked open questions not about facts, when
Advanced Deep Research is asked to research and produce a simple scientific question such
as “produce a report on the various results of climate change, leaving out questionable events such as subsidence, and include the references and web sites used for research” it is very accurate.
Then Deep Research only used verified scientific data to produce the report.
Images are created by a different Google AI service and are produced from simple questions not linked to the research, such as “generate a picture of a small island”.
The report below has been carefully checked by myself, the listed author because Gemini doesn’t have a News Blaze account.
I am a trained physicist (6 years) and math (7 years) some at Harvard, with two years of chemistry at Harvard but I am a science communicator of 55 years, not a working scientist. I have published 22 books and 18,000 plus paid and by lined articles or reviews.
As usual small numbers embedded in the sentences refer to the references at the end.
I. Introduction to Climate Change Records
Climate change, characterized by long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, is increasingly recognized as a defining challenge of our era. The overwhelming scientific
consensus attributes these changes primarily to human activities, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases.
This report examines readily observable evidence of this global phenomenon, focusing on the dramatic melting of glaciers across the world and the growing threat of inundation faced by island nations due to rising sea levels, specifically excluding instances where land subsidence is the primary driver. Understanding these visible impacts is crucial for fostering public awareness and informing the urgent actions necessary to mitigate and adapt to a changing climate.
II. The Retreating Ice: Melting Glaciers as a Key Indicator
A. Global Overview of Current Glacier State and Record Mass Loss:
Recent data paints a stark picture of the state of glaciers worldwide. In 2023, glaciers experienced a new record annual mass loss, averaging 1.1 meters in ice thickness, with
regional variations ranging from 0.5 to 3.0 meters 1.
This single year saw the loss of an astonishing 600 gigatonnes of water, marking the largest annual mass loss in a record extending back to 1976 1. To put this immense volume into perspective, it is approximately five times the total amount of ice contained within all the glaciers of central Europe 1.
The fact that two independent reports from the same year (2023) both identify this as a record-breaking period of loss underscores a significant acceleration in the rate at which glaciers are melting.
This suggests that the factors driving this melt have intensified considerably in recent times. Notably, 2022 and 2023 were the first years on record where every glacier region across the globe reported a net loss of ice 1.
This synchronized loss across all regions strongly indicates a widespread underlying cause, consistent with the effects of global warming impacting glacial systems universally.
B. Detailed Data on Annual and Cumulative Glacier Mass Balance:
Long-term data on glacier mass balance further confirms the accelerating trend of ice loss.
Measurements of annual glacier mass change over several decades reveal an increasingly
negative balance, indicating a consistent and growing loss of ice.
For instance, the last three years have seen observed reference glaciers experience an annual ice loss exceeding 1 meter of water equivalent 2.
Alarmingly, eight of the ten years with the most negative mass balance on record have occurred since 2010 2. This concentration of significant ice loss events in the most recent decade demonstrates that the factors driving melt are not only present but are also becoming more potent over time.
Looking at the broader time frame, on average, glaciers worldwide have been losing mass since at least the 1970s, with evidence suggesting shrinkage began even earlier in the 1950s
3. Since 1950, the cumulative glacier mass loss of global reference glaciers has surpassed 30 meters of water equivalent
2.Similarly, climate reference glaciers tracked by the World Glacier Monitoring Service have lost a volume of ice equivalent to approximately 26 meters of liquid water since 1970 4.
The consistency in these substantial cumulative mass loss figures across different datasets and time frames, reported by reputable sources, provides a robust long-term perspective on the widespread decline of glaciers.
C. Regional Variations in Glacier Melt Rates:
While the global trend of glacier melt is clear, the rate of ice loss varies significantly across different regions. In 2023, western North America experienced a record ice thickness loss of around 3 meters 1.
Much higher than average ice loss was also reported in Alaska, central Europe, the Southern Andes, High-Mountain Asia, and New Zealand during the same year 1. Between 2003 and 2009, the largest losses were observed in Arctic Canada North, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia 5.
Over a slightly longer period, from 2000 to 2023, regional losses ranged from 2% to 39% of total glacier volume, with central Europe exhibiting the highest percentage loss 6.
Notably, ice loss in 2018 and 2019 was primarily driven by melting in Alaska, Arctic Canada, and Svalbard 7. These regional variations suggest that while a global phenomenon is at play, local climate conditions and the specific characteristics of individual glaciers influence the pace of ice loss.
Examining these regional differences can help identify areas particularly sensitive to climate change and can inform more targeted research and adaptation strategies.
A striking example of rapid glacier retreat is the Columbia Glacier in Alaska, which has been receding rapidly since 1980, at times retreating by as much as 1 kilometer per year 5.
Such highly visible examples serve as compelling visual evidence of the tangible impacts of climate change on glacial landscapes.
D. The Contribution of Melting Glaciers to Global Sea Level Rise:
The melting of glaciers has a direct and measurable impact on global sea levels. In 2023 alone, the mass loss from glaciers is estimated to have contributed 1.7 millimeters to global mean sea level rise, representing the largest annual contribution since satellite records began in 1976 1.
Over the last decade (2014–2023), glaciers have contributed approximately 1 millimeter per year to the global mean sea level rise 1. Data from 2003-2009 indicate that ice loss from glaciers accounted for 29 ± 13 % of the observed sea level rise during that period 5.
Between 2000 and 2023, the collective loss of 6542 billion tonnes of ice from glaciers contributed 18 millimeters to global sea-level rise 6. While an annual contribution of a few millimeters might seem modest, the cumulative effect over decades is substantial and directly exacerbates the vulnerability of coastal communities and island nations to flooding and erosion.
It is also important to recognize that the world’s numerous smaller glaciers collectively add a significant amount of water to the oceans each year, roughly equivalent to the contribution from the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica combined 3.
This highlights that the impact of glacier melt on sea level rise is a widespread phenomenon, not solely attributable to the major ice sheets.
E. Visual Evidence of Glacier Retreat:
The changes occurring in glaciers are not only quantifiable through data but are also readily visible through various forms of imagery. Satellite technology has become an invaluable tool for monitoring glacier changes on a global scale. For instance, Landsat images have clearly documented the rapid recession of the Columbia Glacier in Alaska since 1980 5.
Earth Observation satellites, in general, enable the regular monitoring of various glacier characteristics, including surface elevation, velocity, area, length, and terminus position 8.
Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery plays a crucial role in tracking snow distribution, the movement of glacier termini where they meet water bodies, and changes in ice thickness over time 9. This continuous monitoring from space provides a comprehensive record of glacial changes that would be impossible to obtain solely through ground-based observations.
Complementing satellite imagery are before-and-after photographs that vividly illustrate the dramatic retreat of glaciers over relatively short time frames. Photos of Italy’s Careser Glacier from 1933 and 2012 show a significant disintegration of the ice mass 4.
Projects like the NSIDC Glacier Photograph Collection and the USGS Repeat Photography Project offer numerous examples of glacier shrinkage in regions like Alaska and Peru 10. In Glacier National Park, Montana, repeat photographs taken decades apart reveal a stark decline in the size and extent of glaciers 11.
Similarly, a project documenting Arctic glaciers in Svalbard using historical and contemporary photos highlights the rapid retreat occurring in this sensitive region 12. Even a simple comparison of photographs of the Rhone glacier in Switzerland taken just 15 years apart reveals a shockingly rapid decline in its size 14.
These visual comparisons provide compelling and easily understandable evidence of the profound impact of climate change on glaciers, making the abstract concept of ice loss tangible for a wider audience.
III. Rising Tides: Island Nations Under Threat
A. Explanation of Global Sea Level Rise and Its Primary Drivers:
The phenomenon of rising sea levels is another clear indicator of a changing climate. Since the late 19th century, global mean sea level has risen by approximately 8–9 inches (20-24 centimeters) 15.
This rise is primarily attributed to two key factors: the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms and the addition of water to the oceans from the melting of land-based ice, including glaciers and ice sheets 16.
A smaller contribution also comes from changes in land water storage 16.
The warming of the Earth, largely due to increased greenhouse gases, causes the oceans to absorb heat, leading to an increase in water volume through thermal expansion 16.
Simultaneously, the melting of glaciers and ice sheets on land adds substantial amounts of water to the ocean basins, further contributing to the rise 16. Notably, the rate at which sea level is rising has accelerated in recent decades. Data shows an increase from an average of 1.3 millimeters per year between 1901 and 1971 to 3.7 millimeters per year between 2006 and 2018 23.
This acceleration indicates that the forces driving sea level rise are intensifying, posing an increasing threat to coastal environments.
B. Focus on Island Flooding Specifically Attributed to Sea Level Rise (excluding subsidence):
The consequences of global sea level rise are particularly acute for low-lying island nations around the world. Many of these islands are facing an increased risk of flooding directly attributable to rising sea levels, independent of land subsidence. For example, Tuvalu, a collection of nine coral atolls and islands in the Pacific Ocean, is exceptionally vulnerable to rising sea levels, with the very existence of the nation under threat 24.
Similarly, the Kiribati islands in the South Pacific are facing a significant and rapidly increasing risk of flooding as sea levels rise 26. Research suggests that many low-lying atoll islands could become uninhabitable by the mid-21st century due to the combined effects of sea level rise and wave-driven flooding 27.
The Pacific Islands region, in general, is on the front line of climate change impacts, with many low-lying islands facing threats from flooding, coastal erosion, and storm surges 28.
It is important to distinguish between flooding caused by global sea level rise and flooding exacerbated by local land subsidence. In Hawai’i, for instance, some areas are sinking at a faster rate due to subsidence, which compounds the risk of flooding from rising sea levels 30.
Conversely, a study of the Torres Islands in Vanuatu revealed that island subsidence was the primary factor initially perceived as sea level rise 32. While subsidence can contribute to local relative sea level rise 16, the focus here is on island flooding where the primary driver is the global increase in ocean volume due to thermal expansion and ice melt. The case of the Torres Islands underscores the importance of carefully considering vertical land motion when assessing the impacts of sea level change.
C. Case Studies of Vulnerable Island Nations and Communities:
Several island nations are already experiencing significant impacts from sea level rise. Tuvalu faces the dual threats of global warming and the subsequent melting of polar ice caps and glaciers, leading to increased flooding and more frequent severe weather events 24. Projections for Kiribati indicate that all its islands will likely experience more than 100 days of flooding every year by the end of the century 26.
By the 2050s, Tuvalu could average 25 flood days annually, and Kiribati could see an average of 65 flood days per year 29.
Even in the United States, a small Chesapeake Bay island community is facing increasing vulnerability due to sea level rise, erosion, and land subsidence 15.
Visual documentation, such as stock photos, further illustrates the impact of rising sea levels on various coastal areas and islands around the world 34.
These case studies highlight the diverse ways in which sea level rise is affecting different island nations, ranging from a greater frequency of nuisance flooding to existential threats to entire countries.
D. Projections for Future Sea Level Rise and Increased Flooding Risks for Islands:
Future projections from leading scientific organizations paint a concerning picture for sea level rise and its impact on island nations. The Pacific Island countries are projected to experience an average sea level rise of 25 to 58 centimeters by the middle of this century 28.
Specifically, Tuvalu and Kiribati are expected to see at least 6 inches of sea level rise in the next 30 years, regardless of future greenhouse gas emissions 29. Under high emissions scenarios, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global mean sea level rise of 0.61 to 1.10 meters by 2100 36.
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report suggests a plausible range of global mean sea level rise between 1 foot and 6.6 feet by 2100 37.
For the United States, projections indicate a rise of around 0.6 meters (2 feet) on average by 2100 under reduced emissions, but potentially as high as 2.2 meters (7.2 feet) under high emissions with rapid ice sheet collapse 16.
A US government report predicts a 10-12 inch rise along the US coastline in the next 30 years, with an additional 1.5 to 5 feet possible by the end of the century depending on emissions 38.
These projections, while varying in magnitude based on different scenarios, consistently indicate a significant future rise in sea levels, posing a substantial and growing threat to low-lying islands. This rise will also lead to a dramatic increase in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. Kiribati, for instance, is projected to experience more than 100 days of flooding annually by the end of the century 26.
Along the US coastline, flooding has already become more frequent since the 1950s 39. By 2050, a majority of US coastal areas are likely to face 30 or more days of flooding each year 40.
High tide flooding is now occurring at twice the rate it did just 20 years ago 41.
For Pacific Island nations, the number of high-tide flooding days is expected to increase by an order of magnitude by the 2050s 29. Projections for the US indicate that minor flooding could occur more than 10 times as often by 2050, with significant increases also expected for moderate and major flooding events 38.
This anticipated surge in flooding frequency underscores the urgent need for adaptation measures in vulnerable coastal areas, particularly for low-lying islands.
E. The Role of Thermal Expansion in Sea Level Rise:
Thermal expansion, the increase in volume of water as it warms, is a significant contributor to global sea level rise. It is estimated that the warming of the upper ocean has caused sea level to rise due to thermal expansion throughout the 20th century 21. Measurements since 2004 indicate that thermal expansion accounts for roughly one-third of the global sea-level rise observed by satellites 21.
Until recently, thermal expansion and the melting of land-based ice were contributing roughly equally to observed sea level rise 16. Since the early 1970s, thermal expansion and glacier mass loss together explain approximately 75% of the observed global mean sea level rise 23.
This process is directly linked to the overall warming of the planet, as the oceans absorb more than 90% of the increased atmospheric heat associated with human emissions 18.
As long as the oceans continue to absorb excess heat, thermal expansion will remain an ongoing driver of sea level rise 21. This means that even if ice melt were to cease entirely, the already absorbed heat in the oceans would continue to cause expansion and a consequent rise in sea levels for some time.
IV. Beyond Ice and Oceans: Other Visible Signs of a Changing Climate
A. Overview of Global Temperature Increases and Record-Breaking Years:
Beyond the dramatic changes in glaciers and sea levels, other readily observable trends indicate a rapidly changing climate. The average global temperature has risen significantly since the late 19th century. Data shows an increase of about 2°F (1.1°C) from 1850 to 2023 42, and approximately 1.7°F from 1970 to 2023 43.
But not always funny.
Since the late 19th century, the planet’s average surface temperature has increased by about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) 15. The period from 2014 to 2023 was the warmest decade on record globally 44. There is unequivocal evidence that Earth is warming at an unprecedented rate 15. Notably, 2023 was the warmest year on record since recordkeeping began in 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures 45. NOAA also reported that 2023 was the warmest year in their 174-year climate record 46. In fact, 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 by a wide margin, and all ten of the warmest years in the historical record have occurred in the past decade (2014-2023) 47.
This widespread agreement across multiple sources on the significant increase in global average temperature and the occurrence of consecutive record-breaking warm years provides fundamental evidence of a changing climate. Furthermore, the rate of warming has accelerated in recent decades, particularly in the Arctic, where temperatures have warmed at least twice as fast as the global average 47.
Since 1982, the rate of warming globally has been more than three times as fast as the average rate since 1850 47. This amplified warming in the Arctic has significant consequences for ice melt, sea level rise, and global weather patterns due to its influence on atmospheric and oceanic circulation.
B. Changes in Precipitation Patterns and the Increase in Extreme Weather Events:
Shifts in precipitation patterns and a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are other visible signs of a destabilizing climate system. Many places have experienced changes in rainfall, leading to more floods, droughts, or intense rain 42. Destructive storms have become more intense and more frequent in many regions, and global warming is exacerbating water shortages in already water-stressed areas, increasing the risk of agricultural and ecological droughts 48.
Many European regions are already facing more frequent, severe, and longer-lasting droughts 50. Rainfall from events like Hurricane Harvey was significantly more intense and likely due to human-induced climate change, and the expectation is for a higher frequency of Category 4 and 5 storms 51.
Total annual precipitation has increased over land areas in the United States and worldwide, although some areas, like the Southwest, have experienced less precipitation 44. Notably, a higher percentage of precipitation in the United States has come in the form of intense single-day events in recent years 44.
Extreme weather events that were once rare are now increasingly commonplace, with human activity causing rapid changes to the global climate that contribute to these conditions, including record hurricanes, destructive wildfires, deadly heatwaves and drought, and torrential rains and flooding 52. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing as Earth’s climate changes 53.
There is a clear link between climate change and more intense hurricanes and wildfires. Human-caused global warming is likely making extreme heat events more frequent, and higher temperatures also boost evaporation, intensifying drought 51. As the western United States grows hotter and drier, wildfires are growing in size, ferocity, and speed 52. Warming temperatures have extended and intensified the wildfire season in the West 54.
C. Impacts on Seasonal Cycles and Biological Systems:
Climate change is also altering the timing of natural seasonal events and impacting biological systems. Phenomena such as spring flower blooms, summer heat waves, freeze and thaw cycles, growing seasons, and animal migrations are all exhibiting shifts 55.
For example, spring snow melt is occurring earlier, and wildfire and growing seasons have become longer 42. The changing climate is affecting seasons across the country, with rising temperatures, longer growing seasons, and altered precipitation patterns 57.
Climate warming can trigger phases of plants’ and animals’ life cycles earlier in the spring and later in the fall 58. The length of the frost-free season and the corresponding growing season have been increasing since the 1980s, particularly in the western United States 54.
These alterations in seasonal cycles can disrupt ecological relationships, potentially impacting agriculture and wildlife. Furthermore, plants and animals are responding to these changes by shifting their geographical distributions to find more suitable environments 15. In terrestrial ecosystems, species are moving to cooler environments at higher latitudes, while melting polar ice has enabled marine species to move into new areas 59.
Higher temperatures have forced animals and plants to move to higher elevations or latitudes, many moving towards the Earth’s poles 60. Some land animals in the United States have moved north by an average of 3.8 miles per decade, and some marine species by more than 17 mile per decade 63.
While the general expectation is that species will shift their spatial distributions to track their climate niches, observations reveal that many species are not shifting as expected due to various factors, including changing temperature and precipitation patterns, land-use change, and habitat loss 64.
V. The Scientific Foundation: Linking Observations to Climate Change
A. The Overwhelming Scientific Consensus on Anthropogenic Climate Change:
There is an overwhelming consensus within the scientific community that the current changes in Earth’s climate are primarily driven by human activities. The observed warming trend is unequivocally the result of human actions since the mid-1800s 15. Human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, have led to a significant increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, trapping more of the Sun’s energy and warming the planet 15.
Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities 45.
Leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position 45.
For instance, the American Association for the Advancement of Science has stated that about 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Observations from around the world clearly indicate that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver 45.
B. Evidence from NASA, NOAA, and the IPCC Linking Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Observed Climate Effects:
Major climate science reports from organizations like NASA, NOAA, and the IPCC provide extensive evidence linking greenhouse gas emissions to the observed effects of climate change. Both the IPCC and the US National Climate Assessment have concluded that ice loss was the largest contributor to sea-level rise during the past few decades and will continue to be a major factor in the future 65.
The latest IPCC assessment clearly links human influence to changes in the ocean, including warming, more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, reduced oxygen levels, and sea level rise 23. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report offers an in-depth analysis of observed and projected sea level changes, covering both global and regional scales, and discusses the contributions of various processes, such as the melting of ice sheets and glaciers and the thermal expansion of seawater 67.
Key findings from the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate highlight the significant ice loss in polar regions and the rapid changes occurring in their oceans 68. NASA’s research unequivocally shows that increased greenhouse gas levels warm the Earth 15. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report found that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate, and the human-caused rise in greenhouse gases has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events 53.
NOAA’s data indicates that 2023 was the warmest year on record, and their reports consistently link climate change to observable effects like extreme weather events, sea level rise, and shrinking glaciers 42. The Fifth National Climate Assessment, a comprehensive US government report, emphasizes that the effects of human-caused climate change are already far-reaching and worsening across every region of the United States 69.
C. Discussion of the Long-Term and Potentially Irreversible Nature of Some Changes:
Many of the impacts of global warming are expected to persist for centuries to millennia, highlighting the long-term and potentially irreversible nature of some of these changes 23.
This is particularly true for changes in the ocean, ice sheets, and global sea level 23.
Sea level, for instance, will continue to rise for centuries due to the ongoing deep ocean heat uptake and mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets 25.The effects of human-caused global warming are irreversible for people alive today 54.
Every increment of warming will amplify the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and the loss of summer Arctic sea ice, with many of these changes being irreversible over long timescales 23.
This long-term commitment to change underscores the urgency of taking swift and decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the changes already underway.
VI. Looking Ahead: Future Projections and Climate Implications
A. Summary of Key Projections for Glacier Melt and Sea Level Rise from Major Scientific Reports:
Future projections from major scientific reports indicate a continued and potentially accelerated trend of glacier melt and sea level rise. Under various IPCC scenarios, significant sea level contributions from glaciers are projected by 2100 5. Glaciers are expected to continue melting and increase their rate of melt globally due to future climate change 70.
Under a high-emissions scenario with rapid ice sheet collapse, global sea level could be as much as 6.6 feet higher in 2100 than it was in 2000 16. The IPCC’s AR6 provides a plausible range of global mean sea level rise between 1 foot and 6.6 feet by 2100, with scenarios varying based on different warming levels 37.
For the United States, average sea level rise by 2100 is projected to be around 2 feet under reduced emissions and up to 7.2 feet under high emissions with rapid ice sheet collapse 16.
IPCC AR4 projections suggest a sea level rise between 0.18 and 0.59 meters by the end of this century, depending on the emissions scenario 71. Under high emissions (RCP8.5), the IPCC projects a likely global mean sea level rise of 0.61 to 1.10 meters by 2100 36.
B. Potential Future Impacts on Coastal Communities, Ecosystems, and Global Stability:
The continued melting of glaciers and the projected rise in sea levels have far-reaching implications for coastal communities, ecosystems, and global stability. The loss of glaciers poses a serious threat to natural and human water supplies in many parts of the world 4. For low-lying island nations like Tuvalu, the prospect of disappearing entirely due to rising sea levels has profound implications for their populations, cultural heritage, and national identity, serving as a stark warning for other vulnerable nations 24. Coastal ecosystems, communities, and water and energy infrastructures face increasing vulnerability to flooding 40.
In regions like Florida, sea level rise is already exacerbating saltwater intrusion into groundwater supplies and impacting gravity-flow drainage infrastructure, leading to more frequent and severe high tide flooding 17.
More broadly, sea level rise can lead to increased coastal erosion, property damage, habitat loss, and economic hardships for coastal communities that rely on tourism, fisheries, and shipping 25. The combined impact of coastal storms and very high tides will drastically increase the frequency and severity of flooding on low-lying coasts without ambitious adaptation measures 36.
Melting glaciers also contribute to rising sea levels, which in turn increases coastal erosion and elevates storm surge, especially as warming air and ocean temperatures create more frequent and intense coastal storms 49. Changes in ocean currents, influenced by the influx of cold meltwater, can also disrupt weather patterns and impact fisheries 49. The disappearance of glaciers will also lead to the extinction of numerous species that depend on these habitats and result in less fresh water available for consumption and irrigation 74.
Tropical and sub-tropical river deltas with significant port cities and large human populations are particularly vulnerable to the amplified storm surges caused by sea-level rise 75.
Even major coastal cities like New York face an increased risk of coastal surge flooding due to rising sea levels 76. The cumulative effect of these impacts poses significant threats to the well-being and stability of coastal and island communities worldwide.
VII. Climate Change Conclusions
The evidence presented in this report unequivocally demonstrates that climate change is not an abstract concept but a tangible reality with readily observable consequences. The accelerating melting of glaciers across the globe, evidenced by record annual losses and dramatic visual retreat, serves as a critical indicator of a warming planet. Simultaneously, the increasing vulnerability of island nations to flooding, driven by rising sea levels independent of land subsidence, highlights the direct and devastating impacts of climate change on coastal communities.
The overwhelming scientific consensus attributes these phenomena to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, a conclusion supported by extensive data and analysis from leading scientific organizations.
Looking ahead, future projections indicate a continued and potentially intensified trend of glacier melt and sea level rise, posing significant threats to coastal and island populations, ecosystems, and global stability. Addressing this challenge requires urgent and concerted action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and implement effective adaptation strategies to protect the most vulnerable communities and ensure a sustainable future for all.
Valuable Tables:
| Year | Global Mass Change (Gt) | Year | Global Mass Change (Gt) | Year | Global Mass Change (Gt) | Year | Global Mass Change (Gt) |
| 1976 | 42.14 | 1988 | 138.75 | 2000 | -185.95 | 2012 | -256.58 |
| 1977 | -34.04 | 1989 | -77.81 | 2001 | -57.31 | 2013 | -359.65 |
| 1978 | -32.32 | 1990 | 7.18 | 2002 | -317.06 | 2014 | -279.14 |
| 1979 | -42.66 | 1991 | 2.46 | 2003 | -97.94 | 2015 | -247.65 |
| 1980 | 53.50 | 1992 | 113.78 | 2004 | -253.10 | 2016 | -482.50 |
| 1981 | 71.02 | 1993 | 56.06 | 2005 | -128.72 | 2017 | -481.92 |
| 1982 | -78.47 | 1994 | -96.49 | 2006 | -167.45 | 2018 | -285.07 |
| 1983 | – | 1995 | -253.31 | 2007 | -145.74 | 2019 | -454.09 |
| 1984 | – | 1996 | -100.52 | 2008 | -165.80 | 2020 | -601.69 |
| 1985 | – | 1997 | 80.74 | 2009 | -356.16 | 2021 | -370.32 |
| 1986 | – | 1998 | -147.18 | 2010 | -370.32 | 2022 | -454.09 |
| 1987 | – | 1999 | -120.57 | 2011 | -250.72 | 2023 | -601.69 |
Table 1: Annual Global Glacier Mass Melt Changes in Gigatonnes
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF/World Glacier Monitoring Service 1
NASA world wide current sea level rise in selected vulnerable areas due to climate change.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool
An alternate view on climate change
The following is the statement of a prominent amature scientist so remarkable that he often works for NASA on special projects.
Statement by renowned amateur scientist and Rolex Award Winner Forrest Mims, called one of the “50 best brains in science.” Discover magazine.
Some recent articles and books claim there is considerable fraud in today’s science. The fraud is designed to push an agenda or earn a profit. Here’s one such book Fraud in the Lab — Harvard University Press
https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674979451
I began designing UV radiometers in 1988 after NOAA abandoned its UV measurements due to instrumental failures. I then began to notice strange developments in climate science, the most puzzling being the switch from global cooling to global warming.
My concerns about NOAA revising long-term temperature records were buttressed after I gave a talk for NASA at the Maryland science museum in Baltimore. My presentation was on how to make practical measurements related to climate. I followed a talk by Jim Hansen, who used old-fashioned slides to illustrate his view that global warming will soon end life as we know it.
The good news was that Hansen was intrigued by my instruments. He has since acknowledged me in two of his papers
The bad news is that when I left the museum, I walked by the NOAA weather station and saw a large black metal plank lying directly under the temperature sensors. That metal plank definitely raised the temperature reported by that site. When I called the NOAA weather station at Baltimore, the person with whom I spoke had little interest in my find.
Today this arrived at my in box, which was reminiscent of my IPCC days:
Climate Misinformation from the United Nations
Scientists at Dept. of Agriculture know I question exaggerated global warming claims, yet for 20 years I have managed their sophisticated atmospheric instruments at Texas Lutheran University under a program administered by Colorado State University.
After I found the error in NASA’s Nimbus-7 ozone satellite and published same in my first Nature paper, NASA invited me to give a seminar at GSFC. They also twice sent me to Brazil to measure the ozone layer and many other parameters. They sent me to 7 major forest fires to measure their smoke. They sent a Cimel robotic sun photometer now in my field as part of AERONET. It’s water vapor readings show an increase related to the eruption of Hunga Tonga in 2022.
NOAA hired me to spend 3+ years writing “Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory: 50 Years of Monitoring the Atmosphere.” The skeptical passages in this 400-page book were left untouched by the 40 reviewers.
My point is that most scientists I know seem to recognize that the impact of global warming has been exaggerated by the IPCC and by a small subset of scientists who claim disaster is on the way.
As for my measurement site, the absence of a trend in total column water vapor for 35 years clearly explains why there is no global warming here.
Author Note: I have known Forrest for decades and recall that one of his major early discoveries was that his hand held instruments were more accurate than a NASA satellite measuring atmospheric pollution. He is not a trained scientist but has a remarkable record measuring the atmosphere and has been published in scientific journals such as Nature.
76 works cited links for the small numbers found in many sentences and paragraphs.
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And, one final note President Donald Trump actually believes in climate change as it threatens his Florida golf course and he has been working to mitigate climate change damage to his properties since about 2010..
Politico
https://www.politico.com › story › 2016/05 › donald-tr…
May 23, 2016 — The billionaire, who called global warming a hoax, warns of its dire effects in his company’s application to build a sea wall.
The President has made multiple similar statements.
Author’s final note, some of the .gov sites above may disappear as some of the new Trump Administration has required agencies to remove mentions of some topics as also occurred in the first Trump Administration.
Here are some NewsBlaze articles on similar topics and a link to a memoir by Forrest Mims.
When A Creationist, Forrest Mims, Taught NASA How to do Science – Book Review Memoir
