Who Will Win, Who Deserves to Win, Who Was Snubbed
This year’s Oscars aren’t all that hard to handicap, except for the Best Supporting Actress category where there’s a trio of viable contenders: Ruby Dee, Cate Blanchett and Amy Ryan. Conventional thinking would lead you to believe that Ms. Dee should be the favorite, because the Academy loves to reward elderly thespians for their body of work if they’ve never won before.
However, what Ms. Blanchett has going for her is that she’s also nominated as Best Actress where she’s likely to lose out there to Julie Christie. So, it’s possible that the voters will give Cate the Best Supporting nod as a consolation prize of sorts. While I’m guessing that Ruby will take home the trophy, it’s too close to call confidently, since with any name recognition lesser-known Amy Ryan would be rewarded for her powerful performance in Gone Baby Gone.
Overall, expect a big evening for No Country for Old Men, with the Coen Brothers’ modern Western prevailing in the Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and adapted screenplay among the major categories. If there is to be a serious challenge to Old Country that will probably come courtesy of Juno, which has benefited from late buzz and box-office staying power.
In each category below, first I predict the winner. Next, I say which among the nominees is actually the most deserving. And because so many great movies and performances are invariably overlooked, I also recognize several among those snubbed who were certainly worthy of Oscar consideration, such as Christian Bale who has to be the best actor never nominated for an Academy Award.
Best Picture
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Deserves to Win: No Country for Old Men
Overlooked: The Darjeeling Limited, Superbad, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, Gone Baby Gone.
Best Director
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Deserves to Win: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Overlooked: Wes Anderson (The Darjeeling Limited), Ben Affleck (Gone Baby Gone), Mira Nair (The Namesake), Tyler Perry (Why Did I Get Married), Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead).
Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Deserves to Win: Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Overlooked: Christian Bale (3:10 to Yuma, Rescue Dawn), Denzel Washington (The Great Debaters), Michael Cera (Juno, Superbad), Josh Brolin (No Country for Old Men), Owen Wilson (The Darjeeling Limited).
Best Actress
Will Win: Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Deserves to Win: Ellen Page (Juno)
Overlooked: Naomi Watts (Eastern Promises), Tang Wei (Lust, Caution), Katherine Heigl (Knocked Up), Carice van Houten (Black Book), Sienna Miller (Interview).
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Deserves to Win: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Overlooked: Ben Foster (3:10 to Yuma), Ed Harris (Gone Baby Gone), Christopher Mintz-Plasse (Superbad), Tommy Lee Jones (No Country for Old Men), Kal Penn (The Namesake).
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
Deserves to Win: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Overlooked: Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead), Tasha Smith (Why Did I Get Married), Jurnee Smollett (The Great Debaters), Kristen Johnston (Music & Lyrics), Sarah Silverman (I Want Someone to Eat Cheese With).
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Diablo Cody (Juno)
Deserves to Win: Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Overlooked: Wes Anderson (The Darjeeling Limited), Kelly Masterson (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead), Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg (Superbad), Marc Lawrence (Music & Lyrics).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Deserves to Win: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Overlooked: Into the Wild (Sean Penn), Sooni Taraporevala (The Namesake), Tyler Perry (Why Did I Get Married).
Best Documentary
Will Win: No End in Sight
Deserves to Win: Sicko
Overlooked: The 11th Hour, Into Great Silence, Crazy Love, What Black Men Think, Banished, Manufactured Landscapes.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Ratatouille
Deserves to Win: Ratatouille
Snubbed: None
