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State-by-State Electoral Vote Assessment

By William Arnone

An updated electoral vote assessment of who would carry each state if the Presidential election were held now shows the current state of play between parties and candidates. The assessment shows that the Republican ticket of McCain-Palin would win 29 states with 282 electoral votes and the Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden would win 22 states (including the District of Columbia) with 256 electoral votes.

This represents a shift of one state (Colorado) and nine electoral votes from the Republican ticket to the Democratic ticket since the August assessment. A detailed analysis of the shift in Colorado is included in the assessment.

In addition to Colorado shifting from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden, eight states have shifted in the possibility of the result changing between now and November. Of these states, five (Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina) have shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from "Moderate" to "Low." One state (Minnesota) has shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from "Moderate" to "High." One state (Washington) has shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from "Low" to "Moderate." One state (Florida) has shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from "Moderate" to "High."

Of the total of nine states whose assessments have shifted since August, seven (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Washington) have shifted in the direction of the Republican ticket, while two (Colorado and Florida) have shifted in the direction of the Democratic ticket.

Of those states with "High" possibilities of changing between now and November, three (Colorado, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, with a total of 40 electoral votes) might move to McCain-Palin, while four (Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio, with a total of 69 electoral votes) might move to Obama-Biden. If all of these states do shift, then the result would be 285 electoral votes for Obama-Biden and 253 electoral votes for McCain-Palin.

A follow-up analysus will be completed in October, after the three Presidential and one Vice Presidential debates. A final analysis will be completed just prior to the November election.

To see the complete 18-page PDF report, download to your PC by right clicking the following link and saving it to your hard drive or left click it and view it online. US Presidential Election 2008 - September. Most PCs have the free Adobe reader needed to view this report, but if not, you can download it here.