Crossfire War – Tehran Watch – Middle East Theatre – Lebanon: Tehran – Beirut – Damascus/Jerusalem; “Lebanon May Become Another Iraq” – Vladimir Akhmedov Senior Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences
Night Watch: MOSCOW – The above is the extremely accurate, educated projection of Vladimir Akhmedov who continues by stating that unless war ends on the Lebanese-Israeli border Lebanon could become even more of a magnet for Islamic extremists than Iraq. There are obviously no signs of the war ending anytime soon. Akhmedov mentions with the conflict happening on an unprecedented scale it has enhanced the stature of Hezbollah which initially presented itself as only a “people’s resistance movement” but now says it is representing the Islamic community-world. And it has also paralyzed moderate Islamic governments whose inaction discredits them in the eyes of their population. Of course it also enhances the stature of the governments that support Hezbollah, Damascus-Tehran. [RIA]
Akhmedov writes that with Hezbollah’s successful attacks, “Hezbollah has done what the regular Arab armies failed to do during their numerous clashes with Israel-and it has not yet started fighting in earnest, military experts from Arab countries warn.” Egypt President Hosni Mubarak has spoken of the “complicated” position Arab governments are now in. According to aggreements between Arab governments they are obliged to respond militarily to assist any Arab country attacked. Most don’t want to take that risk yet the popular support for them doing so is increasing and that increases the power of the radical opposition in those countries and increases the social tensions that were already there due to the corruption within those governments. This threatens the balance of power throughout the entire region in Tehran’s favor. The only Arab governments who have a chance of surviving are those who will take an active role in supporting this war against Israel.
With moderate governments in the region either being overthrown or more antagonistic toward the West-Russia in order to survive this increases Tehran’s influence and hold over the region’s resources and therefore Iran’s influence in the global economy, which is central to Tehran’s and the Jihad’s economic agenda. At the same time Tehran will direct the increased hostility to justify attacks against the West and Russia. The progression of hatred continues and does not stop with Israel. This is why Tehran had Hamas – Hezbollah start this war with Israel. Tehran knew the regional response would definitely ignite the extreme opposition and provide another unifying influence for the Islamic world.