Trump and Clinton in Virtual Tie Going Into Monday Nights Debate

The hour of judgment is upon all likely voters tomorrow night. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are virtually tied in the race for the White House on the eve of the first debate between the nominees, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll.

The survey among likely voters split this way:

  • Clinton: 46 percent
  • Trump: 44 percent
  • Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson: 5 percent
  • Green Party nominee Jill Stein: 1 percent.

The poll has a 3.5 point margin of error.

Among registered, which is more important than the above, voters, support goes like this:

  • Clinton: 41 percent
  • Trump: 41 percent
  • Johnson: 7 percent
  • Stein: 2 percent.

The head-to-head match among likely voters, which is the most accurate, between the Democratic and GOP nominees shows:

  • Clinton: 49 percent
  • Trump: 47 percent
Trump Clinton virtual tie.
Trump Clinton virtual tie ahead of first debate.

In the two-way race, the pair are tied at 46 percent among likely voters, according to the survey.

It should be noted that after the early August conventions, Clinton led Trump by 8 points in early August and by 5 points in early September.

The first debate will be held Monday at Hofstra University in New York. According to the poll, eight in 10 voters say they plan to watch. That could include over 100 million Americans.

The poll predictions: 44 percent expect Clinton to win vs. 34 percent expect Trump to come out ahead.

In other findings:

  • 54 percent of men back Trump, and 55 percent of women support Clinton.
  • White voters back Trump by 53 percent to 37 percent; nonwhite voters back Clinton by 69 percent to 19 percent.
  • Trump leads Clinton by more than 4 to 1 among white men without college degrees, and by a smaller ratio among white women without college degrees and among college-educated white men.
  • Clinton leads Trump by 57 percent to 32 percent among college-educated white women.
  • 39 percent of registered voters have a favorable impression of Clinton; 57 percent have an unfavorable impression.
  • 38 percent see Trump positively, 57 percent negatively.

Again, the poll’s margin of error overall is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Registered voters, the margin is plus or minus 4 points. More likely voters, it’s 4.5 percentage points.

Dwight L. Schwab Jr.
Dwight L. Schwab Jr. is a moderate conservative who looks at all sides of a story, then speaks his mind. He has written more than 3500 national political and foreign affairs columns. His BS in journalism from the University of Oregon, with minors in political science and American history stands him in good stead for his writing.


Dwight has 30-years in the publishing industry, including ABC/Cap Cities and International Thomson. His first book, "Redistribution of Common Sense - Selective Commentaries on the Obama Administration 2009-2014," was published in July, 2014. "The Game Changer - America's Most Stunning Presidential Election in History," was published in April 2017.


Dwight is a native of Portland, Oregon, and now a resident of the San Francisco Bay Area.