Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH – West Asia Theatre: Tehran – Beirut – Damascus/Jerusalem; Undercover of Ceasefire Hezbollah Smuggles Rockets and Launchers from Syria through Beqaa Valley – 2nd Round Preparations
Night Watch: BEIRUT – Undercover of the ceasefire Hezbollah is smuggling hundreds of rockets and dozens of launchers without any attempt to intercept them, according to Debka military sources. This is obvious preparation for the next round of fighting and quite possibly over a much larger scale. The first round was confined between Israel/Lebanon but since then and with the wild statements from Syria President Bashar Assad, on Hezbollah’s glorious victory, liberating Golan etc., then obviously the second round will see the entry of a deluded Damascus. Tehran will be obliged to enter also, in the name of the Syria-Iran Security Agreement signed two months ago in Tehran. It instituted the formation of what Tehran had been calling for at least two years, an Iran-Syria Military Axis to counter the Israel-U. S. Alliance. [DEBKA]
But Tehran will send the smallest force possible. They know the war will generate more sensational publicity and electrify the entire Islamic world even more than the first round. The vast majority of Islamic people will love to see Islamic governments and not just groups like Hezbollah, also take part in a war with Israel, so Tehran will satisfy popular demand while simutaneously putting themselves in more of a postion to lead it. But the shrewd, intelligently evil, Council of Guardians are not given to foreign policy flights of fancy like, conquer or retake the Golan since it has no use economically, neither is there any market for salt in the Dead Sea.
The Council knows how useful hysteria is but by no means get caught up in it yourself and that is Assad’s mistake. Using the next round to generate more glorious, inspiring publicity-popularity will accomplish enough for Iran. Tehran will actually enter the next round with the air of making a magnanimous gesture, supposedly prepared to make enormous sacrifices, perhaps even designating Israel as the holiest front, Tehran’s foreign policy style statement. With the exeception of Cairo, it will be praised by virtually every Islamic government, a reassertion of Tehran’s leadership, a role they began to assume with the Khomeini revolution 1979.
But in geo-political reality Tehran will also use the next round to provide a publicity smokescreen as they complete their military-industrial preparations to join Islamabad in its next major war with Delhi. That is likely to begin next month with the end of the monsoon. In order to ready itself Iran began a series of five week maneuvers, several stages, that involve almost its entire military as it rehearses mostly offensive exercises but also some defensive ones. They know that the Allies will eventually regroup and may be able to mount some counterattacks. Wednesday should complete the five days of ballistic missiles firing tests that also began Saturday.
As crossfirewar.com has stated constantly the priorities of Tehran and the Jihad are economic. Therefore the two main targets are the West, to weaken them and reduce its international presence, its economic prominence and India. Iran does not want a powerful India to its east. Tehran is aware that there can never be genuine cooperation between Hindu India and the Islamic world. So much of Delhi’s government has always been opposed to that, which is why India has, up to now, enoyed its wars with Pakistan. India had an obvious military advantage but Iran is the difference now.
Despite Israel having more to contend with in the next round she will indeed be there when the smoke clears and with a weaker Syria as Assad tries to explain victory in his defeat. Egypt President Hosni Mubarak, if he is still alive, will be in exile. Popular uprisings against his administration would have ended any chance for a Mubarak Dynasty. Due to his undying hatred of Islamic extremism, and of the Tehran government that is the center of it, under no circumstances will he ever support it and certainly not these planned wars with the West. It was fundamentalists that assassinated his predecessor President Anwar al-Sadat an act praised by Tehran. Sadat was targeted because he had entered the West’s sphere of influence and ceased to work with Islamic governments.
But these spiritual wars, being so popular in Egypt, may have already begun to build the political foundation that will form Egypt’s government after Mubarak. However he will not go down quietly, especially since Egypt’s military may still be mostly loyal to him. He will then have them attack Iranian forces in the immediate area but he is surrounded by nations whose governments support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum-Riyadh, who will concentrate more of their attention and fire on Mubarak than on Israel. With the West being increasingly busy in the Balkans, as Iran activtates its security agreement with Serbia, then about all they can do for Mubarak is receive him in exile.
Currently the arms smuggling is mostly done through Lebanon’s northern Beqaa valley. There seems to be a tacit agreement between Hezbollah and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora that there will be no attempt by Lebanon’s army to interfere. They are even told by Hezbollah what roads and villages they can use and enter and which ones they cannot. The UNIFIL units have confined themselves to mine clearing and only in areas approved of by Hezbollah. In the meantime Israel’s government is telling its citizens to prepare bomb shelters. The next round could see Hezbollah and Damascus use missiles that can hit all of Israel.
That round may begin as Israel performs its mandate of national security by attacking the arms smuggling, forcing Hezbollah-Damascus to respond and perhaps before they are ready. Israel will be doing what the Lebanese army and UNIFIL should have been doing. It is quite possible, in light of recent announcements from Paris-Rome, that Europe also knows the next round could break out at any moment. Both France and Italy are no longer discussing sending units to Lebanon to monitor the ceasefire.