Crossfire War – Somalia Issues Ultimatum to Ethiopia – War in 7 Days

Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH – Northeast Africa Theatre: Tehran – Mogadishu/Baidoa – Addis Ababa – Asmara – Washington; Islamic Government in Somalia Issues Ultimatum to Ethiopia – Withdraw Troops in Seven Days Or Face Major Attack

Night Watch: MOGADISHU – The Supreme Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC) has issued an ultimatum to the Transitional Government in Baidoa that is also a threat to the Ethiopian advisors training their units. The demand was made by the SCIC Defense Chief Sheikh Yusuf Mohamed Siad Inda’ade, “If the Ethiopians don’t withdraw from Somalia within seven days, we will launch a major attack.” Addis Ababa has denied accusations from Mogadishu that it has thousands of troops in Somalia supporting Baidoa but it has acknowledged the presence of several hundred advisors supporting the Transitional Government, which only controls Baidoa yet is still recognized by the international community, desperate to support any base that can be used to halt the spread of Islamic radicalism and therefore Tehran’s influence. [XINHUA]

Any attack, especially a major one would invite the full entry of Ethiopia into the war and perhaps Asmara, the capital of Eritrea. Both Ethiopia and Eritrea, along with eight other countries were declared by the United Nations in November of being in violation of the 1992 arms embargo on selling weapons to Somalia. The U. S. could be one of those countries also. It was no secret it supported the warlord coalition that was defeated in June. It is the remnant of that government that is making its last stand in Baidoa. The fighting and artillery exchanges that took place between the opposing armies last week, southwest of Baidoa, could be the opening salvos of another war.

This time the fighting will attract the attention of Allied governments, most likely acting through Addis Ababa and Asmara. I suspect it is Tehran leading the Islamic support for Mogadishu. The Ethiopian Parliament has already given Prime Minister Meles Zenawi the authority to take any action necessary to defend against attacks. Washington introduced a UN Security Council resolution last week calling for an African force in support of Baidoa.

Xinhua reports the Prime Minister of the Transitional Government Ali Mohammed Gedi stated that Baidoa is surrounded by thousands of Islamic militants. “President Yusuf and I have discussed about the security concerns in the country and we are aware of that the so-called Islamists and their allies are still continuing to pour foreign troops in Bur-Hakaba and Dinsor towns of Bay region and that is not a secret but it is known by government, its people and the international community.” Referring to what he called intelligence reports the SCIC has 3,000 foreign fighters with more arriving daily. Gedi stated four flights carrying weapons arrived in Mogadishu over the weekend and a boat carrying 700 fighters arrived in Kismayo. The SCIC denies the charges.

On July 29 reported mysterious cargo planes were seen landing at Mogadishu’s airport guarded by troops of the new Islamic government. The planes had the flag of Kazakhstan on their tail but they could have been chartered by Tehran. The next war, within a week, will definitely be on a larger scale. It is quite possible fighting could continue here and in the Sudan even after the war against Iran is over. Moscow will be leading the international concern after the war and re-introduced to the region by Tehran. When Iran realizes they cannot defeat Russia in the Caucasus – Caspian region they will enter into negotiations with Russia that will end their offensives. As a result of the peace agreement Moscow-Tehran will merge their foreign policies and a lot of their economic arrangements.

Willard Payne is an international affairs analyst who specializes in International Relations. A graduate of Western Illinois University with a concentration in East-West Trade and East-West Industrial Cooperation, he has been providing incisive analysis to NewsBlaze. He is the author of Imagery: The Day Before.