Night Watch: CHUNXIAO GAS FIELD – A P-3C patrol plane of Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force spotted 5 Chinese warships at around 9 a. m. Friday, 290 km NW of Kume, Island, Okinawa Prefecture, SW Japan.
One of the ships identified was a missile destroyer. This is a major development that indicates the seriousness of the dispute and the importance of the economic lifelines at stake. CrossfireWar.com has been stating for some time that an incident was in the making and this may be it.
As always Beijing’s negotiating position is usually monopolistic, with very little room for compromise unless they experience military reverses. Tokyo is much more prepared for war since her military has not had to overcome corrupt leadership and officers more concerned about their investments in hotels and in resorts as in the case of China.
Hu Jintao has made it illegal for China’s military leadership to engage in such speculation but that has probably made China’s military high command view Hu Jintao as an economic rival. In a serious confrontation China’s military will collaspe, opening the door to improved relations with Pyongyang who has been indicating it is tired of being so dependent on Beijing.
There could come from China a divided response. Those who have had contact with the country ever since the death of Mao Tse-Tung in 1976 have probably realized there is more than one China to negotiate with, three if you include Hong Kong. When Hu Jintao assumed office he discussed the need for military unity and recently emphasized it again. He knows there is no real unity behind him, his power base having been the Youth Committee. Therefore it may not have been him or one of his pet generals or admirals who sent these five warships but whoever controls China energy industry and their military contacts.
For this reason the U. S. increased its bomber force in the region and in July the new head of the U. S. Air Force stated, at his Senate Confirmation Hearing, that he was told to prepare for an air war campaign against China and to give it top priority. Late last year Tokyo changed its military policy to make it more offensive and they have also held meetings with Taipei keeping them informed.
The U. S. and Japan have also held maneuvers.
Please keep in mind that whatever bombs and missiles are used by either side, conventional or unconventional, nothing ever works as well as advertised. Some will miss and others will be duds. Some of course will work but the war will not be total wipeout or lead to a nuclear winter.
Night Watch Information Service
Based in Flossmoor,IL 60422.