Droughts Threaten Food Safety in U.S. And Limit Exports – Research by Google Gemini AI

No matter your stand on climate change any farmer will tell you that even though you didn’t notice in cities or suburbs, the United States just went through an extended drought period in 2024 beginning to threaten food production.

Droughts reduce crop yields even if they do not completely kill off a field of corn or wheat.

This paper looks at drought conditions in the U.S. I have fact checked this as far as possible and have decades of ecological study and writing and several decades owning a cattle and sheep ranch.

Separate numbers at the ends of sentences refer to the reference links at the end of the report.

Other than fact checking (no changes necessary) no changes were made to this research paper which was created after my prompt entirely by Google Gemini Advanced. 1.5 Deep Research, one of several levels of the AI program.

The following is entirely the creation of Gemini except for formatting, even the images are by Gemini.

The Looming Threat of Drought: Food and Water Shortages in the United States

Drought, a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall leading to a shortage of water, is a recurring natural hazard with significant implications for human societies and the environment. In the United States, drought poses a growing threat, with potentially devastating consequences for food and water security. This report delves into the dangers of drought in the US, emphasizing the alarming potential for food and water shortages.

Impact of Drought on Food and Water Shortages in the US

Drought has a direct and devastating impact on agriculture, the foundation of food production. Reduced water availability and declining water quality affect farms, ranches, and grazing lands, leading to substantial economic losses and impacting the livelihoods of farming communities 1.

Agricultural Impacts

Crop failures and pasture losses are the primary direct economic consequences of drought in the agricultural sector 1. The depletion of soil moisture leads to significant declines in crop and livestock productivity 1. Furthermore, the distribution and frequency of pests and diseases that affect crops, livestock, and forage may also expand as a result of drought 1. Specialty crops, such as fruits, vegetables, and tree nuts, are particularly vulnerable due to their higher water requirements and value 1.

Ecosystem Disruption

Drought also disrupts the delicate balance of ecosystems. Lower water levels in reservoirs, lakes, and ponds, coupled with the loss of wetlands, contribute to increased stress on wildlife and even extinction of endangered species 2. Wildfires become more frequent and intense, further degrading the environment and threatening human settlements 2.

Consumer Impacts

The consequences of drought extend beyond the immediate agricultural impacts. Consumers face higher prices for local food as farmers grapple with lower yields and increased expenses 3. Limited water availability for washing produce can lead to sanitation and health issues 3. In the long term, increasing drought will affect staple crops, impacting the availability of local food and potentially increasing reliance on imported food products, which often have lower nutritional value 3.

Impacts on Livestock

The livestock industry also suffers significant losses due to drought. Reduced water availability and forage necessitate increased spending on feed and water for animals 4. Drought can also lead to livestock deaths and sell-offs, further impacting the economic viability of the industry 4.

Public Health Impacts

Drought has far-reaching health implications. Low crop yields can result in rising food prices and shortages, potentially leading to malnutrition 5. Dry soil conditions increase airborne dust and pollen, irritating the respiratory system 5. Dust storms can spread the fungus that causes Valley Fever 5. Stagnant waterways become breeding grounds for disease vectors like mosquitoes, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases 5.

Current and Recent Droughts in the US

As of December 17, 2024, a significant portion of the United States is experiencing drought conditions. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 32.54% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and 38.87% of the lower 48 states, are in drought 6. This represents a decrease from previous months, with improvements observed in the East, Midwest, and South 7. However, conditions remain largely unchanged in the West and Plains 7.

Drought Levels and Impacts

The U.S. Drought Monitor classifies drought severity into five levels, ranging from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4) 8. Each level has associated impacts, with increasing severity leading to more significant consequences for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems.

Recent Drought Events

Recent data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) indicates that moderate to exceptional drought covers 32.5% of the United States, including Puerto Rico 9. The worst drought categories (extreme to exceptional drought) have decreased slightly 9.

In October 2024, over 78 percent of the American population was affected by abnormal dryness and drought, the highest percentage in the U.S. Drought Monitor’s 25-year record 10. This was attributed to drier- and warmer-than-normal weather patterns, influenced by a persistent ridge of high pressure in the atmosphere 10.

The Palmer Drought Index reveals that severe to extreme drought affected about 16% of the contiguous United States as of November 2024 11. The most severe drought conditions were observed in western Montana, eastern Montana and Wyoming, along the lower reaches of the Colorado River, and in southern New Mexico 11.

Historical Context

Despite the periodic occurrence of droughts, U.S. water infrastructure remains unprepared to accommodate prolonged and widespread drought conditions 12. Reservoirs in California have fallen to just 59 percent of their historical averages, as more than 80 percent of the state suffers from extreme or exceptional drought 12. Elsewhere in the American West, the persistently dry conditions have brought the principal reservoirs of the Colorado River Basin-Lake Mead and Lake Powell-to some of their lowest historical levels 12.

The following figure illustrates the historical area of the United States affected by drought from 1931 to 2014:

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The 1988 drought in the Mississippi River basin provides a stark example of the potential consequences of severe drought on critical infrastructure and supply chains 13. The drought led to dredging of the river, reduced loads, and higher barge shipping costs, ultimately resulting in delivery failures 13. This historical event highlights the vulnerability of transportation systems and the potential for disruptions to food security during drought.

Governmental Responses to Drought

Recognizing the growing threat of drought, the federal government, in collaboration with state and local entities, is actively involved in drought preparedness and mitigation efforts. Most states have drought plans in place, with some incorporating strategies to reduce drought vulnerabilities 14. These strategies include investments in water demand reduction, expansion of drought-resilient supplies (e.g., wastewater reuse/recycling, desalination, and groundwater recharge and management), and facilitation of water banks and markets for water transfers 14.

The need for drought preparedness is underscored by the 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment, which indicated that rising air temperatures and hydrologic changes are intensifying droughts in some regions, such as California, the Colorado River Basin, and the Rio Grande 14.

Key Initiatives and Resources

• National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS): NIDIS emphasizes the importance of integrating drought into hazard mitigation and preparedness planning 15. By doing so, planners, emergency managers, and other practitioners can help mitigate the impacts of drought, which often compound and amplify the effects of other natural hazards 15.
• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): The EPA highlights the role of green infrastructure in drought preparedness 16. Green infrastructure, which includes practices like rainwater harvesting and green roofs, can help communities prepare for drought by infiltrating water where it falls, replenishing groundwater reserves, and reducing reliance on local water supplies 16. The EPA also provides valuable guidance for water utilities in preparing for and responding to drought through its “Drought Response and Recovery: A Basic Guide for Water Utilities” 17. This resource offers practical strategies for water management during drought, including demand management, water conservation, and public outreach.
• Department of Health and Human Services (HHS): HHS recognizes the public health challenges associated with drought, including increased risk of heatstroke, respiratory illnesses, and mental health issues 18. HHS emphasizes the need for public health practitioners to build an improved understanding of these connections to health through networks of drought information providers 18.
• Department of the Interior (DOI): The DOI is leading the Biden-Harris administration’s all-of-government approach to enhance the resilience of the West to drought and climate change 19. This involves coordinating with partners across the federal government, providing assistance to impacted communities, and developing long-term solutions to climate change 19.

Academic Studies on the Long-Term Effects of Drought

Academic research provides valuable insights into the long-term effects of drought on food and water security. Studies have shown that drought significantly reduces the uptake of CO2 by ecosystems, while rainfall following drought often leads to increased emissions of greenhouse gases 20. This highlights the complex interplay between drought, ecosystem function, and climate change.

Health Impacts

Drought can also have adverse health effects through various pathways, including reduced water quantity and quality, intensification of heatwaves, increased air pollution, reduced food supplies, and socioeconomic disruptions 21. These factors can lead to an increased risk of water-, food- and vector-borne diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, mental health disorders, nutritional issues, and mortality 21.

One study found that under severe drought conditions, adults over 65 are at higher risk of death, particularly those living in areas that have experienced less extreme drought conditions 22. Drought has also been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality 22.

Mental Health Impacts

Drought has significant mental health implications, particularly for farmers and their families, as it affects their livelihoods and well-being 5. A recent study found an association between all drought types and increased firearm suicides among U.S. farmers, with the severity of the drought correlating with the strength of the association 5.

Direct and Indirect Impacts

Drought’s impacts can be categorized as either “direct” or “indirect” 2. Direct impacts are the immediate consequences of drought, such as crop failure or water shortages. Indirect impacts are the cascading effects of these direct impacts, such as economic losses, job losses, and social disruption 2.

Long-Term Effects on Food Security

Studies have shown a strong link between chronic food insecurity and chronic undernutrition, particularly in regions experiencing prolonged drought 23. This underscores the long-term consequences of drought on human health and well-being, especially for vulnerable populations.

Drought Vulnerability in the United States

Drought vulnerability varies across the United States, with certain regions facing greater challenges due to a combination of factors, including climate, geography, and socioeconomic conditions. According to a study by researchers at the University of Alabama, the most vulnerable states are Oklahoma, Montana, and Iowa, while Delaware, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California are least vulnerable 24.

Factors Contributing to Vulnerability

Oklahoma’s high vulnerability stems from an outdated drought plan, limited irrigation capacity, and extensive agricultural activities and cattle ranching 24. Despite facing recurring multi-year droughts, California ranks low in drought vulnerability due to its adaptation and preparation efforts 25.

The Great Plains states, with their heavy reliance on agriculture and limited planning and irrigation capabilities, are considered more vulnerable to drought 26. In 2024, over 93 percent of the land area in Utah, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico experienced some level of drought, with severe drought conditions prevalent in Utah and Colorado 27.

The Southwest, particularly the Four Corners states, is also highly vulnerable to drought 11. As of November 2024, moderate to extreme drought affected about 29.8% of the Southwest 11.

The Role of Climate Change in Exacerbating Drought Conditions in the US

Climate change is a significant factor exacerbating drought conditions in the United States. Warmer temperatures increase evaporation, reducing surface water and drying out soils and vegetation 28. This intensifies the effects of low precipitation, making droughts more severe and longer lasting 28.

A study by UCLA and NOAA scientists found that higher temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change turned an ordinary drought into an exceptional one that parched the American West from 2020-2022 29. Evaporation accounted for 61% of the drought’s severity, while reduced precipitation accounted for 39% 29.

Increased Evaporative Demand

Research has shown that climate change accounts for 80% of the increase in evaporative demand since 2000 30. During drought periods, this figure increases to more than 90%, making climate change the single biggest driver of increasing drought severity and expansion of drought area since 2000 30. This highlights the crucial link between climate change and drought, with rising temperatures intensifying the effects of low precipitation and exacerbating water scarcity.

Climate change is also altering the timing of water availability, affecting snowpack melt and runoff patterns 28. This can disrupt water management systems and exacerbate water shortages during drought periods.

Economic and Social Impacts of Drought-Related Food and Water Shortages

Drought-related food and water shortages have profound economic and social impacts.

Economic Impacts

Drought can lead to economic losses in various sectors, including agriculture, tourism, and energy production 31. Less surface water availability may result in a decreased availability of cooling capability for electricity-heavy facilities like datacenters, nuclear plants, and other power plants in the energy sector 23. This can disrupt energy production and potentially lead to power shortages, further impacting economic activity.

Drought also disrupts supply chains, leading to higher prices for food and other essential goods 32. This can disproportionately affect low-income households and exacerbate existing inequalities. When water providers act to curtail water use or invest in new infrastructure because of a drought, bills can rise for low-income households and drop for high-income households 33. This disparity arises because high-income households typically have more flexibility to reduce water consumption, while low-income households may already be using water efficiently and have limited options for further reductions.

The economic impact of drought can ripple across industries, influencing global markets and even raising the cost of everyday products and energy for consumers 32. A recent World Bank report highlighted the alarming potential of drought and water scarcity to slow economic growth, drive migration, and, in extreme cases, spark conflict 32.

The long-term impacts of drought on macroeconomic outcomes are significant. A study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found that in a high emissions scenario, drought conditions will cut 0.4 percentage points of Fragile and Conflict-Affected States’ (FCS) growth of real GDP per capita every year over the next 40 years and increase average inflation by 2 percentage points 34. Drought will also increase hunger in FCS, from already high levels 34.

Social Impacts

Competition over shrinking resources can exacerbate social tensions and even lead to conflicts 31. A threat to water provisions may cause local resource hoarding or theft 23. Theft from key facilities like fire stations, reservoirs, water towers, hospitals, and farms/natural sources have been reported in previous longer-term droughts 23.

Water scarcity can create cascading effects across social and economic systems, ultimately affecting livelihoods, physical health, and mental health and well-being 35. For farmers and seasonal agricultural workers, drought can lead to loss of income, unemployment, and forced migration, creating mental distress 35.

Drought can also lead to social unrest and political instability, particularly in regions with limited resources and weak governance 31. This is because drought can exacerbate existing inequalities, create competition for scarce resources, and undermine livelihoods, leading to social disruption and conflict.

Innovative Solutions and Technologies Being Developed to Address Drought-Related Challenges

In the face of growing drought risks, innovative solutions and technologies are being developed to address the challenges of food and water shortages. These include:

• Desalination: Removing salt from seawater to create freshwater for drinking and irrigation 36. While desalination can provide a reliable source of freshwater, it is energy-intensive and can have environmental impacts, such as brine disposal. In California, desalination plants are being built to supplement water supplies during drought periods.
• Rainwater harvesting: Collecting and storing rainwater for various uses, reducing reliance on traditional water sources 36. Rainwater harvesting can be an effective way to conserve water, but its effectiveness depends on rainfall patterns and storage capacity. Many cities in Texas are promoting rainwater harvesting to reduce reliance on municipal water supplies.
• Drip irrigation: Delivering water directly to plant roots, minimizing water waste and improving irrigation efficiency 36. Drip irrigation can significantly reduce water use in agriculture, but it can be expensive to install and maintain. Farmers in California are increasingly adopting drip irrigation to conserve water and improve crop yields.
• Atmospheric water generators: Condensing humidity from the air to produce clean water, even in arid regions 37. Atmospheric water generators can provide a source of water in areas with limited access to traditional sources, but their output can be limited by humidity levels. This technology is being explored in Arizona to provide water for remote communities.
• Crop engineering: Developing drought-resistant crops that require less water, improving agricultural resilience 37. Crop engineering can help reduce water use in agriculture, but it raises concerns about genetic modification and potential environmental impacts. Researchers in Nebraska are developing drought-resistant corn varieties to improve yields in dry conditions.
• Solar pumps: Using solar energy to power irrigation systems, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and improving water access in remote areas 36. Solar pumps can provide a sustainable and cost-effective way to power irrigation, but their effectiveness depends on sunlight availability. Solar-powered irrigation systems are being used in New Mexico to provide water for livestock in remote grazing areas.
• Recycling organic waste: Composting organic waste to improve soil health and water retention, enhancing drought resilience 38. Recycling organic waste can improve soil fertility and water-holding capacity, but it requires infrastructure and public participation. Many cities in the US are implementing composting programs to reduce waste and improve soil health.
• Nature-based solutions: Utilizing natural processes, such as reforestation and wetland restoration, to enhance water infiltration, reduce erosion, and improve water availability 38. Nature-based solutions can provide multiple benefits, including water conservation, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation. Wetland restoration projects in Florida are helping to improve water quality and enhance drought resilience.
• Groundwater recharge: Increasing groundwater storage to enhance resilience to drought and take advantage of seasonal variations in surface water runoff 39. Groundwater recharge can help replenish aquifers and provide a buffer against drought, but it requires careful management to avoid over-extraction and contamination. California is implementing groundwater recharge projects to enhance water security.
• Saltwater intrusion barriers: Preventing saltwater from contaminating freshwater aquifers, protecting water resources in coastal areas 39. Saltwater intrusion barriers can help protect freshwater resources in coastal areas, but they can be expensive to construct and maintain. Coastal communities in Florida are implementing saltwater intrusion barriers to protect their drinking water supplies.

These innovative solutions offer hope for mitigating the impacts of drought and ensuring food and water security in the face of a changing climate.

Synthesis and Conclusion

Drought poses a significant and growing threat to the United States, with potentially devastating consequences for food and water security. The impacts of drought are far-reaching, affecting agriculture, ecosystems, public health, and the economy. Climate change is exacerbating drought conditions, making them more frequent, intense, and longer lasting.

While certain regions are more vulnerable than others, the entire country faces the risk of drought-related challenges. Addressing this threat requires a comprehensive approach that includes:

• Investing in drought preparedness and mitigation strategies: This includes developing and implementing drought plans at the state and local levels, promoting water conservation through public awareness campaigns and incentives, and expanding drought-resilient water supplies by investing in alternative water sources such as desalination and wastewater reuse.
• Promoting sustainable agriculture: This includes supporting the adoption of drought-resistant crops through research and development, providing incentives for farmers to implement water-efficient irrigation technologies, and implementing soil conservation practices to improve water retention.
• Addressing climate change: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through policies that promote renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable transportation is crucial to mitigating the long-term impacts of climate change on drought.
• Investing in research and innovation: Continued investment in research and development is essential to developing and deploying innovative solutions, such as drought early warning systems, improved irrigation technologies, and nature-based solutions for water management.
• Enhancing public awareness: Educating the public about the risks of drought and promoting water conservation practices through public education campaigns, school programs, and community outreach is crucial to building resilience.

By taking proactive steps to address the threat of drought, the United States can mitigate its impacts and ensure a more sustainable and secure future for its people and environment. This requires a collaborative effort among government agencies, policymakers, researchers, and the public to implement effective drought management strategies and build a more resilient society.

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