Night Watch: MOSCOW – In addition to planned anti-terrorist exercises with China, scheduled for August 18-25 in the Maritime Territory (Russia’s Far East), it has just been announced that Russia will hold anti-terror exercises with India in October this year.
Moscow may have found some Chinese military leaders they can work with in order to assist China’s very real concerns about Islamic uprisings in China’s northwest Xinjiang province, which is largely populated by Uighurs who were never comfortable with China’s occupation after Beijing invaded the area right after World War II.
With the deterioration of China’s military due to so much corruption it may take quite a while for Russia to find Chinese units and leaders they can rely upon when both countries are threatened by Islamic groups with massive support from Saudi Arabia-Turkey-Iran.
The uprising in Kyrgyzstan and the unrest in Uzbekistan has increased both capitals sense of being under attack from a mutual enemy. That was the concern as far back as May 1989 when then Soviet Primier Mikhail Gorbachev visited Beijing to end the border disputes between both nations as they were faced with the Islamic revival that became more active as a result of the Khomeini revolution ten years previously.
There is also the very real possibility of China’s military forced to be more concerned about domestic uprisings all over the country and with a new demonstration class, PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) veterans demanding their pensions.
RIA Novosti reports that the Russian-Indian anti-terror exercises, IndRo – 2005, will involve air force units from both nations and they are to become an annual event. The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force Vladimir Mikhailov said, “Russian strategic aircraft, and also Su-24M2 bombers and Su-27SM fighters will practice mid-air refueling during military exercises in China and India, in addition to military and transport aviation.”
Russia’s ability to assist India could balance some of the military cooperation Pakistan will be receiving from Islamic countries. India is where you will probably see Iran launch some of its first missiles along with Saudi Arabia launching some of its 50-60 CSS-2 missiles they acquired from China 20 years ago. Each missile possesses a 2,500 m (4,000 km) range and can easily reach all of India.
This is also where I expect you will see some of the first attacks against international shipping as both combatants, India/Pakistan, attempt to cut each other off economically as Iran/Iraq did during their war in the 1980’s. Russia may then expand her cooperation to include naval support. Also in October Russia’s Navy is scheduled to conduct a series of ports-of-call throughout the Indian Ocean region.
October begins the Dry Season in the region, the end of the Monsoon. The drier weather will make it easier for other nations to join the next Pakistan-India war.
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