Crossfire War – Prospects for Balkans as Iran’s Avenue of Invasion into Europe

Crossfire War – Rapid Fire News=Tehran – Belgrade – Athens Watch – Southeast Europe Theatre: Serbia Forms Nationalist Coalition – Serbia Deputy Foreign Minister in Tehran – Prospects for Balkans as Avenue of Invasion – Albanian Movement for Unification Formed

Night Watch: BELGRADE – There are more indications the May 11 Serbian election will result in a radical-nationalistic government which will take a strong stand on Kovoso and will be less inclined to encourage European integration. Instead closer (strategic) relations with Russia will be the priority as B92 reports the leader of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Ivica Dacic, has just returned from Moscow where he probably received encouragement, if not instructions, to continue coalition negotiations with the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and the Democratic Party of Serbia-New Serbia (DSS-NS) whose combined votes will give them a majority in Parliament. It will be a combative majority as regards relations with the European Union and with the Albanian government in Pristina and will be less likely to believe in continued negotiations over the issue of European integration or the rights of Serbian citizens in Kosovo. A government of demands instead of proposals. This is not Cold War theorizing but a very real conflict Moscow wants to erupt into war again knowing it will destroy NATO and Brussels’ leadership, headquarters of both NATO and the European Union (EU) two international organizations Moscow no longer has any respect for or trust. NATO’s dissolvement began with Yugoslavia’s division in 1991 since the recognition of that division alienated two of the alliance’s most important members Greece – Turkey with Athens going so far as to sign a security agreement with Serbia in 2006. [B92]

Moscow no longer believes in strategic relations with NATO as some of the governments in the West eagerly led part of the alliance into war with Serbia so Russia withdrew its units from the region after 1999 the year of NATO’s 78-day air campaign against Serbia. It was a war that made Kosovo not only more of a battleground but led the Albanian community to believe the West had become a military ally against Belgrade a belief which has encouraged Albanian nationalism throughout the entire region, a belief which continues to this day. Moscow’s presence is now felt in Russia having led the re-armament of Serbia though I don’t believe Moscow will commit units here. So Russia definitely encourages Belgrade’s increasingly antagonistic stand against Brussels and also supports any security arrangements Belgrade can make with other governments like Greece. Tehran also signed a security agreement with Serbia in 2006.

The Democratic Party (DS) of Serbia President Boris Tadic, and his five party coalition, did receive the largest single amount of votes on May 11 but not enough for a Parliament majority. His position toward Brussels is less combative.

Pristina – In a parallel development B92 reports the Albanian Movement for Unification has just been formed in Pristina, Kosovo, and the seat of the Albanian government which declared independence in February. Avni Klinaku was named as President who announced, “The goal of this party is the unification of Albanian territories into one country and the resolution of the social problems of the citizens of Kosovo.” Klinaku is noted for being one of the founders of the National Movement for the Liberation of Kosovo which helped create the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) that worked with NATO in 1999. I don’t know what he means by” social problems of the citizens of Kosovo” but I suspect he believes the main problem are the Serbian institutions which are still active there. That of course means another war with Serbia and Klinaku is also aware Albanian communities in Macedonia can only become part of an Albanian nation if the Macedonian government in Skopje is defeated. This Movement for Unification is also a threat to Greece which has its own Albanian community. [B92]

Tehran – As the storm clouds over Europe are gathering once again, the most intriguing theatre in World War III, the Serbia Deputy Foreign Minister Radiko Begovic is in Tehran. IRNA reports Begovic is briefing Iran Deputy Foreign Minister for European Affairs, Mehdi Safari, on the recent elections in Serbia and on the latest regional – international developments. This timing is no coincidence as both officials know another wave of fighting is coming and I suspect they are setting the timetable for activating the security agreement to be used against governments in the West still occupying Kosovo. This fits perfectly the foundation of Tehran’s foreign policy of keeping the West militarily busy anywhere except attacking Iran. The infantile psychology of NATO’s leadership makes it easy for Tehran to lure the West to pursue small wars and they know NATO has been eager for war with Serbia since the end of the Cold War in 1990. The Balkans having long been a favorite area throughout so much of European history to make a power projection to put on a show of force. What NATO really accomplished instead was putting themselves completely out of position not only in Southeast Europe but even more so on the wasteland front of Afghanistan. [IRNA]

NATO was eager for small wars but concerning a very real threat-Iran, Brussels preferred mythological negotiations which has enabled not only Tehran to make extensive preparations for (f)allout war but has prepared the Balkans as an avenue of invasion into Europe. And that is what I think Begovic and Safari are plotting-mapping, the best and quickest invasion route Iranian and Greek forces can use in support of Serbia as a follow up to the security agreements Tehran-Athens signed with Belgrade in 2006. Iran wants the invasion to at least reach Vienna since the United Nations atomic energy agency that has been investigating Iran’s nuclear weapons program is based in Vienna. Tehran wants the agency annihilated. And since Vienna has a historical and recent history of hostile relations with the Balkans neither Athens nor Belgrade would mind if Vienna’s regional influence were destroyed.

Willard Payne is an international affairs analyst who specializes in International Relations. A graduate of Western Illinois University with a concentration in East-West Trade and East-West Industrial Cooperation, he has been providing incisive analysis to NewsBlaze. He is the author of Imagery: The Day Before.