The war in Ukraine launched by Russia almost a year ago is still going on, with no end in sight.
One should ask two pertinent questions which I will analyze and reply to herein:
What are the reasons Russia could fail in the war it launched on Ukraine almost a year ago?
What are the scenarios that could take place if Russia loses its war on Ukraine?
This story by Rustam Taghizade, Political Analyst, brought to print by Nurit Greenger
Russia Had Different War Expectations
Russia’s military attack on Ukraine had an immediate win expectation. However, they encountered heavy Ukrainian resistance and a prolonged war with no way out but losing face. Putin does not like losing face.
The Russian’s plan to seize the city of Kyiv in a few days has failed. With the support of the West, a process that continues today, Ukraine quickly became equipped with modern weapons.
In the war process, it is reported that Ukraine also freed large areas from Russian occupation.
Russia’s War Failure Reasons
There are many reasons for the possibility of a failed Russian war in Ukraine. The Russian governance system is hindered with deep corruption created by Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian regime and became much more evident with the Russian army’s performance in this war.
There are several reasons for the Russian army’s combat failure, one is the lack of proper communication and uniformity between the political echelon and the military command. It became clear that the Russian army has the use of old weapons and recruits young soldiers who have not been trained well enough to carry out their military duty. More so, the Russian government is short of soldiers so it is sending ethnically non-Russian soldiers into the war, basically who are mercenaries.
What Is the World to Expect?
There are different scenarios of what could happen in Russia if and after its defeat in Ukraine.
If the Russians are lucky, tyrant President Vladimir Putin will likely step down. The world can expect his resignation to be followed by a violent power struggle between far-right nationalists, authoritarian conservatives with a stake in the corrupt system, and also conservatives who want to continue the war efforts and destroy the existing political hierarchy.
As it is well known, oligarchs, the very rich business leaders who have a great deal of political influence, particularly with reference to individuals who benefitted from the privatization of state-run industries after the collapse of the Soviet Union, are plentiful in Russia. At such a moment, oligarchs can also join the power struggle.
There is also a resurgence of a semi-democratic movement that is committed to ending the war and reforming Russia.
We don’t know who will win in the end and what such a win would bring about. However, we can postulate, with some certainty, that the power struggle that will rise in Russia, should Mr. Putin willingly or not leave office, will weaken the current regime and certainly distract Russia from what is left to do in the war on the Ukraine efforts.
In turn, a weakened Russian regime, combined with an already failing economy, would encourage already disgruntled Russians to take to the streets and protest, perhaps at gunpoint. Some non-Russian political units, incorporated into the Russian Federation could exercise greater self-rule. These are the Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Dagestan and Sakha.
When the USSR collapsed in December 26, 1991, there were local wars in Russia on national-ethnic grounds. South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria, and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts took place then.
Russia was further shaken by the Chechen war. Former US Secretary of State and diplomat Henry Kissinger claimed that “the collapse of Russia or the destruction of its strategic policy capabilities could turn its territory spanning the 11-hour zone, into a contested vacuum.”
Henry Kissinger advocates preventing the weakening of Russia after all, as the Chinese factor became clearer because the rise of China is diametrically opposed to the interests of the United States. However, as we see now, preventing the rise of China is an ongoing unresolved conundrum.
West’s Position on War in Ukraine
These scenarios I have shown herein could happen if Russia loses the war in Ukraine.
The United States and Great Britain are in favour of prolonging this war in Ukraine. With their support of this war they think they can reduce Russia’s resources and weaken Putin’s political power.
I wonder if Putin will be the second Mikhail Gorbachev?