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Crossfire War – US – France Conduct Mediterranean Exercises

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Crossfire War – TEHRAN – RAMALLAH – RIYADH WATCH – West Asia Theatre: Tehran – Riyadh – Tripoli – Khartoum – Ankara – Damascus – Gaza – Ramallah/Paris – Washington – Rome – Beirut – Cairo – Jerusalem; France – US Conduct Joint Carrier Maneuvers in Mediterranean – Confused Diplomacy in Region – New Islamic Militant Unit Formed in West Bank

Night Watch: RAMALLAH – As a sign of the extreme, almost panic concern among Allied governments, France and the U. S. are conducting joint aircraft carrier maneuvers in the Mediterranean. Debka reports, French Rafale M fighter bombers took off from the Charles De Gaulle, landed on the USS Enterprise then returned. I suspect this is in preparation for what Paris-Washington believe is inevitable, (f)allout war with Iran this summer and with major fighting in both the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. This is not the war that was planned when the West and Russia anticipated the instability the Ayatollah Khomeini would cause when he arrived in Tehran off the plane from Paris in February 1979. They assumed his influence would not extend beyond Central Asia where Khomeini and Iranians are from, that is why Iranians and Arabs almost never work together and Moscow and the West, of course assumed Khomeini would have no impact on South Asia the Pakistan/Indian conflict. The intention was that disturbances in Central Asia would justify Moscow making more invasions south toward the Persian Gulf without any difficulty. Communist labor is not paid so that reduces the costs of the raw materials the Soviet Union exported to the West. [DEBKA]

Obviously, the full impact of the Khomeini revolution is yet to be felt, but with the year long maneuvers Iran had last year and continuing into this year the world will soon see how effective Tehran’s offensive plans are. Currently, Iran is primarily waging World War III through units and countries they support, Islamic units in the North Caucasus Chechnya-Daghestan, the ones in Iraq of course, the government of Georgia in the South Caucasus, a variety of Palestinian radical groups and this new suicide unit northern Lebanon, Fatah al-Islam. Tehran has maintained excellent relations with every government in the former Yugoslavia and played a lead role in sending Islamic Mujahideen fighters into Bosnia and Iran has been actively supporting the Islamic uprising in Kashmir and infiltration into India. In the meantime, Tehran’s leading diversionary tactic, the video decoy Osama Bin Laden remains extremely effective in confusing governments in the West, as does his No.2.

I think governments in the West do realize, despite their reactionary responses, that Israel is not the main target of Tehran’s offensives, the West is. And that is why when World War III spread to northern Lebanon, near the Syrian border, military cooperation is now increasing between Allied powers, in this case Paris-Washington, behind the scenes of the latest pathetic, last stand diplomacy frantically touring the region desperately clinging to the hope there is some Islamic government in the region the West can work with to defeat Iran. The House of Saud will have a difficult time maintaining a straight face when they give that deceptive impression when they meet early next week with U. S. Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice and Defence Secretary Robert Gates. Recently one of the websites showed a meeting between Saudi King Abdullah and Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and it was definitely not a meeting of enemies. Both leaders were ecstatic as they were probably comparing launch dates for their ballistic missiles, the Saudis CSS-2, purchased from China in the mid-1980s and Iran’s Shahab missiles. The CSS-2 has a 2,500 mile (4,000 km) range and the Shahab-3, 1,250 miles. They will be targeting an enemy who thought they could use Khomeini and put themselves completely out of position by agreeing to the division of Yugoslavia and committing troops there, establishing another theatre in the war.

Rice and Gates are also scheduled to visit Jerusalem and Cairo where President Hosni Mubarak’s internal situation is more explosive than even Lebanon to such an extent no one is discussing the Mubarak dynasty anymore. It is no secret the Jihad, radical message is popular in Egypt and Tehran-Riyadh know during the next series of heavy fighting there will be an enormous popular demand for Mubarak to do something in support of Islamic governments fighting two of Islam’s major enemies, the West-Israel. But I assume most of Egypt’s military is still loyal to Mubarak and if that is the case then he will declare war on Iran and attack the expendable units Tehran committed as a show of support for Palestinian people. Mubarak, however, is surrounded by governments, which support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum-Riyadh. They and Tehran will then concentrate their attention on him away from Jerusalem and openly support-arm any group opposed to Mubarak. It has been reported for more than a year the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is armed already.

In Jerusalem I suspect Rice and Gates will encourage Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to continue whatever dialogue Israel can with Palestinian groups and Damascus or anyone else yet there will probably be tacit approval of any military response Israel feels it has to make to guarantee its security. Olmert will definitely see in their discussion that they realize Israel is by no means the main target. Rice and Gates may have been instructed to inquire if Israel’s air force can be used on targets beyond Israel’s immediate borders. Olmert may have to reply it depends on how busy Israel is and according to another Debka article, Israel is facing a new threat from the West Bank in the form of a new Palestinian radical unit the Yasser Arafat Brigades. [DEBKA]

This new unit, 200 of them, broke away from the Fatah al-Aqsa Brigades, which are still closely connected to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who has been working with Jerusalem-Washington since his Fatah militia was defeated last month in the streets of Gaza by Hamas. Hamas and other Palestinian radical units like Jihad Islami are currently re-supplying in preparation for their increased attacks against Israel, from the West Bank as well as from Gaza. The war in Gaza is actually going on right now. Rice will also be visiting Abbas in an attempt to show him some support but her visit could instead turn out to be the kiss of death. No leader in West Asia (Middle East) who has close relations with the U. S.-Europe has any chance of surviving the Jihad led by Tehran-Riyadh. France Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, as another sign of fatal diplomacy, will be visiting Beirut Saturday to meet with Prime Minister Fouad Siniora who has been isolated by the street demonstrations in the city and the fighting up north that is going to spread, which will provide Damascus its excuse to re-invade the country. Tehran established new al-Qaeda units in south Lebanon, to fight alongside Hezbollah as Iran divides their attack assignments; al-Qaeda will attack the European units in UNIFIL and Hezbollah will re-start its war with Israel.

The current round of diplomacy the West is conducting is the last of their illusion in the foreign policy world of make believe, that they still have some possibility of controlling events. However, when the regional war becomes (f)allout this summer their next round of diplomacy will reflect their defensive -defeated position. Iraq is just a small indication of that defeat.


Willard Payne is an international affairs analyst who specializes in International Relations. A graduate of Western Illinois University with a concentration in East-West Trade and East-West Industrial Cooperation, he has been providing incisive analysis to NewsBlaze. He is the author of Imagery: The Day Before.

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