Crossfire War – Rapid Fire News=Tehran – Baghdad – Damascus Watch – West Asia – North – Northeast Africa Theatre: Iran Supreme Leader Threatens President Bush – Iran FM Embarks on Three Capital Tour of West Asia – Muscat – Ankara – Damascus – German FM in Tbilisi in Eleventh Hour Attempt to Prevent New War in South Caucasus
Night Watch: TEHRAN – “Some say the current U. S. President, in the last months of his presidential term, will commit this action (attack Iran) to create a headache for the future American administration. But this is an erroneous opinion. If someone decided to take such action the Iranian people will pursue them and punish them even if they were no longer in power.” That was the not so veiled threat by Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. RIA reports Khamenei made the statement-warning as part of a series of remarks just before Tehran begins another round of (deceptive) nuclear negotiations with the West. Deception being a Persian specialty to create confusion in the mind of the enemy. The threat to Bush should be taken seriously since it was known the hijacked airliner that hit the Pentagon on 9/11 may have actually been looking for the White House, but because of trees it could not be easily seen from the air. Tehran’s hatred is not based on religious theory but on a Persian process of elimination of any serious rival to its international dominance and since Washington is still the leading power in the West and with a lot of bases in the region the enemy leader Iran hates the most is President George W. Bush, even after he leaves office. Bush will need the best security money can buy. [RIA]
A current example of pursuing a leader out of office is the warning to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair that forced him to cancel a trip yesterday to the Gaza Strip. The Gulf-Times is reporting the domestic Israeli intelligence service Shin Bet discovered a specific plot to attack Blair’s motorcade. They were definitely acting under instructions from Tehran which hates Blair since he was British Prime Minister when the occupation of Iraq began. Prominent Iranian exiles are also very much aware of Tehran’s hatred and threats to them as many of them have been killed since the 1979 revolution which established Tehran’s current government. [GULFTIMES]
Geneva – This news video on the upcoming weekend nuclear negotiations in Geneva is provided by France24/Reuters. The difference this time is Washington is sending Under Secretary of State William Burns to put on a show of unity with negotiators from China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany. Beijing is by no means united with the West-Russia on this since they have always supported Iran’s nuclear program since it was re-activated in 1981. China either sent the support directly or through North Korea. A few years ago an Iranian exile informed me the last time he visited Iran was in August 2001 and in the hotel where he was staying there were a lot of Chinese technicians he assumed were working on weapons of mass destruction. Beijing is aware if Tehran’s war effort is effective then three of China’s rivals will become weaker, the West-India-Russia. That is why Beijing never assisted anti-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear – ballistic missile technology; they only paid lip service to it as during the Six Party negotiations concerning North Korea, a charade staged by Beijing. [FRANCE24]
Muscat -IRNA reports Iran Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is leaving Wednesday for a three nation tour of West Asia (Middle East). Mottaki and his high level delegation will be meeting senior officials in Muscat-Oman, Ankara-Turkey and Damascus-Syria to discuss, plan and coordinate positions on regional-international issues. Crossfirewar.com has been a chronicle of Tehran using its close relations with these governments to increase its hold over the region as they prepare for massive attacks against UK/US bases in Iraq-Persian Gulf since none of them believe the West should have military forces in the area. [IRNA]
Damascus has of course openly signed a security agreement with Tehran while Ankara-Muscat have what could be termed a military understanding with Iran. Though they will not take part in the attacks directly they have probably provided Iran with important information on Western bases in or near their countries and they are ready to support Iran’s attacks diplomatically in regional-international organizations. I suspect Mottaki will be giving them the specific timetable for the wider regional war which will begin with Hamas-Hezbollah attacks against Israel unless Jerusalem conducts another pre-emptive attack as they did last September on the Syrian nuclear installation constructed with North Korean assistance and financed by Tehran.
Tbilisi – The German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will embark on an eleventh hour attempt to prevent full scale war in the South Caucasus between the Georgian government in Tbilisi and the republics of Abkhazia – South Ossetia which have been recognized by Moscow. RIA reports Steinmeier will arrive in Tbilisi to present the details of a three part plan to prevent war but there seems to be already some serious skepticism in Tbilisi as to its chances for success. Georgia’s Speaker of Parliament, David Bakradze stated, “I hope there will be an agreement on the joint plan concerning conflict resolution in Abkhazia.” He then warned if not the Tbilisi will be forced to “unilaterally bring an influence to bear on the deployment of armed forces in Abkhazia.” [RIA]
That “influence to bear” is military action against the Abkhaz and Russian units stationed in the territory which seceded from Georgia at the end of the Cold War in 1990 as did South Ossetia. A three year war broke out with Moscow actively supporting the two territories but Russia had to first concentrate on ending most of the conflicts in the North Caucasus, when fighting erupted there in Dec. 1994 against Islamic units supported by Turkey-Iran. With that war largely over Moscow can now proceed south to restore its control over the entire region and privately, industrial concerns, led by Berlin, want Moscow to restore its control as they have used Russia for more than a century to export raw materials from here.
In a desperate attempt to prevent that Ankara-Tehran began to shift their military support to Tbilisi for the past several years though Turkey-Iran will not commit any forces directly against Russia. After the smoke clears, from this deciding regional theatre in World War III, Ankara-Tehran are prepared to acknowledge Moscow’s success but they have to see that in the field. That is why I suspect Foreign Minister Steinmeier will indicate, perhaps directly, Berlin supports Russia’s position on all issues but hopes war can be avoided. But if not then Berlin will support any move Moscow decides to make even if it means not only taking control of Abkhazia-South Ossetia but of Georgia also.
To assist Russia the same industrial concerns in the West sent former U. S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger to Moscow in April 2007 to co-chair the Strategic Working Group with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov. Only when Iran’s government realizes they cannot defeat Russia will Tehran enter into non-deceptive negotiations to end the war though the West will still have to confront the military units Iran sent through the Balkans in the name of their security agreement with Belgrade signed in 2006.
