Crossfire War – TEHRAN – DAMASCUS – RIYADH WATCH – West Asia Theatre: Tehran – Damascus – Riyadh – Tripoli – Khartoum – Ankara – Baghdad – Gaza – Ramallah – Beirut/Jerusalem – Cairo – Paris – Rome – London – Washington; Syria Has Been Moving Troops – Artillery By Night in Preparation for War With Israel – Unifil – Israel Prepares to Respond
Night Watch: GOLAN HEIGHTS – War in West Asia is about to become (f)allout and if the tour of Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Israel’s northern front is any indication it is quite possible Jerusalem is the one which begins the escalation. Debka reports Damascus has been moving, by night, troops and artillery into positions near Israel’s border and near the Golan Heights. The Golan was the strategic area seized by Israel in the June 1967 Six Day War. The borders of Israel-Lebanon-Syria-Jordan all meet there and the reason Israel was able to win the war in six days was because they attacked first in order to keep Syria-Egypt off guard and disrupt their preparations to attack Israel. Olmert was accompanied to the Israel Defense Force (IDF) Northern Command by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Gaby Ashkenazi. OC Northern Command Major General Gad Eisenkott and other senior officers briefed them and I suspect they discussed ways, a variety of attacks; they can employ to prevent Damascus-Hezbollah-Tehran from having the initiative as Hezbollah did last year. [DEBKA]
So as Xinhua reports Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addressed a massive rally via jumbo video screens in Beirut and boasted of a “grand surprise” if Israel attacks Lebanon, Jerusalem may be planning to do just that because of last year’s war which strengthened Hezbollah since so many of the military-terrorist unit survived and Iran has re-armed them more heavily than last year. Olmert and his government are also aware the war emboldened Syria, as Damascus believes last year proved the benefit of matching their regional policy with Tehran. A few months ago Tehran spoke of a countdown to war with Israel, and based on the continued fighting in northern Lebanon begun in May and now with Syrian troop movements the preparations are just about over. The only question is does Israel want to be on the defensive and more at risk than even last year? [XINHUA]
Jerusalem must know Damascus – Tehran are going to enter the war as a small example of Islamic military axis unity yet Syria-Iran know their entering the war will have massive regional impact designed, not to remove Israel, but France and the West last influence in Lebanon and Egypt President Hosni Mubarak, isolated in his cooperation with the West. Mubarak can even be portrayed, condemned throughout the Muslim world, as now working with Israel against Palestinian people (militant groups). Israel must realize they cannot afford sit back and wait so I assume the Olmert government is planning the extent of their first strikes and not against Hezbollah but against the preparations Damascus is making, unless Jerusalem decides to wait and respond massively to any first attacks by Syrian-Palestinian-Hezbollah units near the Golan. Regular readers of crossfirewar.com know I have always suspected Tehran-Damascus want to portray Israel as the aggressor so they may have planned a series of attacks which will force Israel to strike back then Iran-Syria declare war in the name of Islamic unity and supporting Palestinian people. Due to their being no market for salt in the Dead Sea Tehran will only commit a few expendable units but give them glorious publicity.
Since Mubarak has always hated the government in Tehran, after the Khomeini revolution in 1979, he will not hesitate to attack Iranian units in the immediate area. However, of course when that happens, Iran and the Jihad will concentrate their attention on supporting political forces in Egypt that have long wanted to remove him and governments that support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum surround him. European units in UNIFIL will also come under attack as Tehran-Riyadh have attacks increase against the occupation in Iraq while Turkey invades the Kurdish region. Washington-Jerusalem will have almost no chance to cooperate especially since the missiles analysts assume Tehran will launch at Israel are actually reserved for British/U.S. bases in Iraq.