Crossfire War – RAPID FIRE NEWS=TEHRAN – BAGHDAD – DAMASCUS WATCH – West Asia – North – Northeast Africa Theatre
Lack of Intelligence on Precise Location of Iran’s Nuclear Facilities – Syria-Iran Combine Intelligence Services – Several Explosions on Both Sides of Georgia/Abkhazia Border – Economic Blockade of Kashmir by Hindu Political Groups New Line of Contention
Night Watch: PENTAGON – I have always tried to discourage the simplistic fantasy of “let the Israelis do it” when it comes to Iran’s nuclear weapons program as if the Israel Air Force (IAF) can easily destroy the bases as they did in Iraq 1981. Iran’s bases have been constructed by the San Francisco based engineering firm whose London branch office was shown on CNN the day after the Gulf War ended in 1991 and the bases were not constructed above ground where they would be an easy target. That is why I have often suspected that pictures of some of Iran’s supposedly nuclear bases shown above ground may not really be genuine but designed to mislead the inspection services like the UN International Atomic Energy Agency, governments in the West and the general public. Occasionally an Israeli defense official would mention any attack would have a limited impact and lately some have said perhaps the weak points in Iran’s nuclear weapons industry could be damaged but they have to know where the weak points are. Today Haaretz is reporting the British paper the Sunday Telegraph mentioned a U. S. official who was close to the discussions between Chairman of the Pentagon Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen and Israeli generals during the admiral’s recent visit and they acknowledged they had very little information as to the exact locations of Iran’s nuclear installations. [HAARETZ]
But Israel and the Pentagon realize there is no other way to have any impact on reducing Iran’s nuclear weapons industry and they also realize the longer it takes to attack it the more nuclear warheads Iran can produce for its ballistic missiles. Privately I think they realize Iran has had warheads for some time but do not want to say that publicly as governments in the West hoped against hope they could negotiate an improvement in relations with Iran and end the threat not to Israel but to the West presented by Iran’s longer range missiles. Tehran let them entertain that myth and mocked threats of sanctions and economic incentives as Iran’s war preparations continue to this day. Iran’s nuclear weapons program was revived in 1981 and it would not take them twenty-seven years to have nuclear warheads.
Tehran – Debka reports despite the charade being conducted by Syria President Bashar al-Assad on pretending to improve relations with Israel and the West, behind the scenes President Assad continues to approve the merging of Syria-Iran’s security-military relations. June 27 the Superintendent of Syria’s Internal Security, General Fouad Sultan, signed an intelligence agreement at the end of his five day secret visit with his Iranian counterpart Ahmed Hosseini. The agreement enables thousands of Syrian intelligence and police officers to receive training in Iran. [DEBKA]
Rukhi – Relations in the South Caucasus will continue to detriorate as several explosions have just taken place on both sides of the Abkhazia/Georgia border. Swissinfo/Reuters report both sides blame each other for the explosions, most of them happening near the Georgia village of Rukhi. I suspect this is Moscow setting the stage for war in order to reclaim its control over the vast oil-gas resources of the Caucasus with Georgia being the last obstacle. Russia began to make its intentions known as fighting decreased further north against Islamic groups in Chechnya-Daghestan and those units were supported by Turkey-Iran. In a desperate attempt to block Russia Ankara-Tehran have shifted their military support to Georgia and the government in Tbilisi has eagerly received the assistance. [SWISSINFO]
Moscow is preparing to go beyond just causing incidents as there are now reports from Georgia’s Rustavi-2 of forty-five wagonloads of weaponry arrived in the Abkhazia capital Sukhumi. The shipment includes: anti-aircraft systems, anti-aircraft radar, armoured vehicles, helicopters and tanks. Moscow-Sukhumi deny the shipment’s existence. As a sign of support for Russia industrial services in the West, led by Berlin, had former U. S. Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger arrive in Moscow April last year to co-chair the Strategic Working Group with former Russia Premier Yevgeny Primakov. For more than a century the West has used Russia to export resources from the region.
Srinagar – The week long economic blockade Hindu groups and political parties have imposed on the Muslim majority state Kashmir has begun to have a serious impact. KONS reports a former Finance Minister and PDP leader, Tariq Hameed Karra stated angrily, “If the fascist elements continue to run their writ, Kashmiris can’t be left at their mercy and alternative links of communication and transportation to the Valley shall have to be restored, sooner the better.” The blockade has been led by political parties which represent the most hostile Hindu positions regarding Kashmir and Muslims in general, principally the BJP, Shiv Sena and VHP and they have been blocking the Jammu-Srinagar highway. The alternative routes proposed by Karra lead to Pakistan’s part of Kashmir which India would never allow and that is why Karra states the Indian government is watching the blockade like a mute spectator. [KONS]
Karra ended his statements with this warning if the blockade is not ended soon there would be serious consequences which I assume means Muslims would start attacking the blockade and even call on Pakistan for support. Jammu is right on Pakistan’s border.
Soura – At the same time disturbances are continuing in Kashmir with Fayaz Wani of NewsBlaze reporting there were confrontations all day Saturday in Soura, just six miles from Srinagar, between Indian police and Muslim demonstrators as locals believed Indian soldiers guarding a Muslim shrine were responsible for causing the fire there. The Jenab Shahib Soura shrine caught fire by what Muslims said was an explosion caused by a planted mine but a senior Indian police officer said, “After vesting the spot I am of the view the fire was not caused by an explosion.” And he added it was too early to speculate. Knowing how explosive the region already is I do not believe Indian troops would want to set off a mine explosion at a mosque but it may be possible agents of Pakistan set it off in order to justify intervening in this latest wave of disputes, the most serious for the past twenty years, when the Islamic uprising against Indian rule began in November 1989.
Causing agitation could be part of President-General Pervez Musharraf’s offensive Action Plan. Crossfirewar.com reported at the time infiltration attempts from across the Line of Control (LoC) increased as the most powerful decision making body in Iran, the Council of Guardians, visited Pakistan in May and Musharraf had presented his Action Plan to them in early 2007. Though these latest demonstrations began over Delhi’s decision to grant land (40 acres) for a Hindu shrine Islamic leaders quickly entered the protests and enlarged them to demand Kashmir independence from India the reason for the 1989 uprising and the flashpoint of two of the three wars between India/Pakistan since their independence in 1947. I have always suspected what has prevented the fourth war is that Tehran was not yet ready to enter but I believe they are now which is why the demonstrations are ongoing and what has kept them going is this explosion in Soura which indeed could have been planted by an agent of Pakistan.