Crossfire War – TEHRAN WATCH – West Asia Theatre: Tehran – Beirut – Damascus/Jerusalem – Cairo; Iran Revolutionary Guards Call on Hezbollah to Launch Missiles at Tel Aviv – Attack “Should Coincide with the next International Meeting of a Certain Importance” – UN Security Council Meeting on Sanctions
Night Watch: BEIRUT – “It would be appropriate if Hezbollah hit Tel Aviv with its missiles to make its Zionist counterpart understand that there is no secure place in the Zionist geography.” That is a quote from Sabhe Sadegh, a weekly publication that is a vehicle for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Pasdaran. The article goes on to state the attack “should coincide with the next international meeting of a certain importance.” The Pasdaran is obviously referring to the United Nations Security Council which is due very shortly to begin discussions on imposing economic sanctions on Iran since it has refused to end its uranium enrichment program for its production of nuclear weapons. [AKI]
Every international affairs analyst stated, during Israel’s 34 day war with Hezbollah last summer, that the fighting distracted the international community’s attention away from Tehran’s nuclear weapons program. The next wave of fighting in and around Israel will definitely do the same, especially since the next wave of war will be on a much larger scale than the first and not only Israel will be attacked. Nations in the West and Russia will also be engulfed by the fighting, which, though it will begin around Israel will spread. Tehran has ballistic missiles that can make certain the fighting will spread beyond West Asia (Middle East). Iran has been hinting all this year that they have their responses, in the form of events, all planned for the Security Council’s attempt to impose sanctions.
Even just the process of discussing the possibility of sanctions would be Tehran’s excuse to cause more instability all over Eurasia. Crisis creation has been at the center of Tehran’s foreign policy since the Iran/Iraq War 1980-88. Though the crisis was imposed on them by Baghdad’s invasion the Khomeini regime found the eight year war to be strengthening. Every crisis in and around the region since then, and caused by Tehran, that results in the international community threatening to take action against Iran, has been used by Tehran to rally its population and Islamic people as a whole. The occupation of Iraq, negotiations and disputes over Tehran’s nuclear weapons program, and now Europe re-entering West Asia through Lebanon are just the most current examples.
AKI reports that Tehran’s former Ambassador to Damascus, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, stated last week, that Iran has been re-arming Hezbollah, something crossfirewar.com and Debka.com has been saying ever since the ceasefire in August. But Tehran may be mistaken if they assume Jerusalem is going to wait and let Tehran – Damascus, through Hezbollah, attack first. Israel knows that during the first phase of fighting Hezbollah was able to retain a lot of the initiative because Jerusalem’s response was not as powerful as it could have been. Israel could now have decided to revive the strategy it used so decisively in June 1967, when they knew through intelligence reports, that they were about to be attacked, so Israel attacked first.
But with Tel Aviv, and all of Israel being at extreme risk this time, Jerusalem will not be restrained at all. Israel will at least hit bases in Syria that are used to re-supply Hezbollah. Other Syrian military bases will also be hit, including Syrian positions in the Golan Heights. Israel may show no hesitancy to use its nuclear weapons if its security were seriously threatened. Jerusalem’s nuclear arsenal could be reserved for the few Iranian units Tehran will commit. Since there is not much market for salt in the Dead Sea Tehran will not make destroying Israel a priority. Statements by Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to that effect was just an act, a publicity smokescreen. But Jerusalem will indeed give Tehran plenty of reasons to activate their security agreement with Damascus.
Since war with Israel is popular in Egypt the next wave will give more popular support to the Muslim Brotherhood, and to other Islamic groups, who will use it overthrow the administration of Egypt President Hosni Mubarak. He has always hated Islamic radicalism and the center of its support, Tehran’s government. Islamic fundamentalists, who assassinated Mubarak’s predecessor Anwar al-Sadat in 1981, used the 1979 Khomeini revolution in Iran, as one of their reasons. Tehran named a street after the assassin. The resumption of fighting will actually have more impact on Cairo than on Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.