TEHRAN WATCH – Middle East Theatre: Amman – Damascus – Tehran/Jerusalem; King Abdullah II Approves Hamas Operating from Amman instead of Damascus
Night Watch: AMMAN – In an obvious move to show his support for the Palestinian cause King Abdullah II has just approved Hamas relocating its operation to Amman, Jordan from Damascus, Syria according to Debka, the Israeli publication on terrorism and espionage. The linked article states that the decision is the result of secret talks last week between a deputy of Hamas leader Meshaal, Muhammad Nazal and Jordanian intelligence. [Debka]
Though some have occasionally expressed skepticism about Debka’s accuracy the reason I take this report seriously is that two years ago, June 2004, I saw His Majesty speak at the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. It was obvious he took very seriously the Palestinian situation which he actually stated, in all seriousness, was the main reason for instability in the Middle East. He was not putting on an act, a mere show of support, he actually believes that and is now very willing to respond accordingly by not only acknowledging the results of Hamas’ electoral victory but also in permitting them to operate from his country in their attempt to defeat Israel.
I don’t think His Majesty seeks the destruction of Israel but he probably has concluded the only way Palestinian people will receive better treatment is if Israel is seriously threatened and successfully attacked. That is why crossfirewar.com has stated repeatedly Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike as she did in June 1967 when they knew they were about to be attacked and simply attacked first. Tehran and other Islamic governments would not mind since they can then portray Israel as the aggressor. Tehran will lead the military show of support for Palestinian people even though the Council of Guardians realize how unimportant the salt in the Dead Sea is economically and therefore not commit more than their brigade size Rapid Deployment Force.
The only exception to Islamic unity is Cairo since Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is not leading it. With the popular support for war against Israel among Egypt’s population, undermining Mubarak’s authority he could have Egypt’s military attack Iranian forces in the immediate area. He has hated Tehran ever since the Khomeini revolution of 1979 that completed the Islamic revival, which began during the 1920’s revolving around the House of Saud.
That revolution has been the source of fundamentalist demonstrations in Egypt ever since. Mubarak even threatened to attack Iranian warships in 1993 in the Red Sea if they attempted to use Port Sudan. That same year Mubarak took a tour of Persian Gulf states in an effort to isolate Tehran but he met with no success. The vast majority of the Islamic world wants to destroy the West’s ability to manipulate events in the Middle East.
With Mubarak’s refusal to support the Jihad, Tehran-Riyadh will then concentrate on Cairo instead of Jerusalem and support those in Egypt who will have him overthrown as was King Farouk in 1952, whose reign also became enormously corrupt. They know Cairo is surrounded by Islamic governments that support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum, who will also want to see Mubarak ousted. With the West being increasingly busy in the Balkans they will be in no position to help Mubarak despite the West having conducted maneuvers with Egypt for more than 20 years.
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