Crossfire War – ANKARA WATCH – West Asia Theatre: Ankara – Yerevan – Tehran/Baghdad – Washington – London – Jerusalem; Turkey – Iran Prepare Joint Invasion of Iraq Kurdistan – PKK – PJAK Bases in Quandil Mountains Immediate Objective – Kirkuk Next
Night Watch: ANKARA – Debka is confirming reports that surfaced all this year of Turkey – Iran preparing a major invasion of Iraq’s independent northern province of Kurdistan. As preparation both Ankara-Tehran have regularly attacked and bombarded nationalist Kurdish PKK-PJAK positions inside Iraq. In Turkey’s case against PKK bases across their southeastern border while Iran has conducted constant bombardments of Kurdish PJAK units across from Iran’s northwest border. During most of this year Turkish-Iranian units have actually been deployed 5 miles (7-8km) inside Iraq. [DEBKA]
Both Ankara-Tehran are preparing air units along with, armor, paratroops, special operations and artillery forces with the immediate objective being PKK-PJAK bases in the Quandil mountains that lie across Turkey’s border, where 5,000 Kurdish fighters have been based. Washington suspects such an invasion could also be Ankara’s excuse to seize Kirkuk which is responsible for 40% of Iraq’s oil. It seems that Kurdish communities in Turkey and Iran have been emboldened by the independent actions of Iraqi Kurds since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein three years ago and have therefore increased their attacks against Iran – Turkey. The most recent show of open defiance of Baghdad and Kurdish nationalistic identity has been the raising of the Kurdish flag all over Iraq’s Kurdistan province.
Debka reports that both Tehran-Ankara suspect Washington would not mind if a Kurdish state were established that also included parts of Armenia as well as Turkey – Iran as a barrier state against Tehran. But obviously neither Ankara-Yerevan-Tehran want to see the Kurdish flag raised anywhere and especially in a Kurdistan militarily in alliance with Washington. This would be another example of the West “re-drawing the map of the Middle East” to suit its political-economic agenda. Strangely enough Washington has not once complained about the Kurdish flag perhaps since they are aware that the Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is taking his marching orders from Tehran.
According to Turkish intelligence the Kurdish President of Iraq Jala Talabani and the President of Iraqi Kurdistan Masoud Barzani are shipping anti-air rockets and anti-tank rockets to the Turkish PKK and Iranian PJAK. Eruption of all out war on this front, and more intense than the recent fighting in Lebanon, would be the final nail in the coffin of Washington-London’s power projection in West Asia. Tehran could further inflame the situation by including attacks against Washington’s bases in the Persian Gulf and in the name of regional stability. Both Ankara-Tehran suspect that the Pentagon may have plans for Iraq Kurdistan to assist any potential U.S.-Israeli air attack against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. They also suspect Jerusalem has early warning observation posts in Kurdistan to warn of any Iranian attack on Israel.
In an attempt to defuse this crisis Washington has appointed former NATO Commander General Joseph Ralston as Special Coordinator on the Kurdish situation in a desperate move to save Washington-London’s position in West Asia. During the second week of September he held a round of conferences with Turkish military-political leaders but it seems Washington is three years too late. The general received a polite hearing. This enlarged conflict, that London-Washington are now trapped in, is the result of their extremely suspicious invasion of Iraq as every government in the region and beyond knew of the engineering business services that delayed Saddam’s removal for 12 years. Services headquarted in San Francisco, going through their London branch office, to construct bases for Iran. London-Washington then grossly overestimated the ease in which they assumed they could defeat any military contingency.
The US/UK set themselves up for this debacle by making some glaring mistakes even before the invasion. Just before the 2003 war London-Washington decided not to use former Iraqi generals to lead Iraq’s military in post-Saddam Iraq. The London-Washington lost alliance invaded, flying the corporate flag of Haliburton, the private sector sponsor of Vice – President Richard Cheney and with the maniacal consultancy of Richard Perle, who is referred to, by those who know him, as the Prince of Darkness. He began his industrious career as a Senator’s aide 40 years ago but as a public servant became obsessed by corporations who do business with government.
But to make matters worse U. S. President George W. Bush stated unrealistically, after the occupation began, that if a country was part of his military coalition that removed Saddam then investors in those countries could invest in Iraq’s economy. That not only eliminated a lot of European investors but also investment societies from virtually every nation that bordered Iraq including American ally Saudi Arabia. All of them had been doing business with Baghdad even before the United States even existed. Then when Bush is told of the emerging opposition to the occupation he then responds childishly, “Bring them on.” Obviously the lost alliance assumed, arrogantly, there would be only a few isolated Islamic militants here and there and certainly not with any state sponsorship. In their insulated decision making they never ever considered the nightmare scenario of an Ankara-Tehran military axis formed along the lines of mutual economic-political convenience.
Current reports seem to suggest that Tehran is waiting for Ankara to make the first move perhaps in deferrence to Ankara who has been confronted with a more immediate Kurdish threat to its stability and for a much longer time. But another reason could be that Ankara making the initial move would be the greatest embarrassment for Washington-London, causing a serious rift within NATO that it could never recover from. I suspect that in order to keep Jerusalem occupied, Tehran could have Hezbollah-Damascus start the next wave of fighting against Israel. European forces in UNIFIL, that are in the process of occupying Lebanon, could also be caught up in the crossfire.