Crossfire War – WASHINGTON – BERLIN – MOSCOW WATCH – Persian Gulf – South Caucasus Theatre: Washington – Berlin – Canberra – London – Moscow – Tskhinvili – Sukhumi/Tehran – Riyadh – Tbilisi; RIA Novosti Commentator Pytor Goncharov – The World is Waiting for April 6 – Operation Bite – Nuclear Facilities – Command and Control Centers the Targets of Air to Surface Missiles
Night Watch: PERSIAN GULF – Despite persistent reports from Russian and international media, on the arrival of U.S. carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf, as preparation for attacks on Iran’s nuclear production facilities, there is still some doubt as to whether an attack on Iran is imminent. According to Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov, “Our contacts with the U. S. side give no grounds for such expectations.” But his statement could be part of Washington-Moscow’s attempt to confuse Tehran in a last attempt to catch Iran off guard. [RIA]
But I can’t see how Tehran can interpret the constant arrival of Allied forces in the Persian Gulf in any other way than Washington and the Allies are finally doing what they should have done right after Iran had al-Qaeda conduct the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon plus the terrorist attacks in Europe since then. The reason for the six year delay is that Russia and the West weren’t planning on World War III, which began in 1994, with the increased fighting in Central Asia-Caucasus-Balkans-Kashmir-Israel, and the West-Russia were extremely instrumental in heavily arming West Asia (Middle East) since the 1970s and not just with outdated weaponry but with the latest in conventional equipment and all the guidance systems as part of the enormously profitable weapons deal package.
London-Washington even went one step further in being willing to construct military base networks for Saudi Arabia during the 1980s, including the underground facilities shown during the Gulf War 1990-91 and, as the Gulf War was ending, CNN showed the London branch office of the San Francisco based engineering firm invited to Iran. Operating through London enabled the firm to circumvent Washington’s economic embargo against Tehran. That arrangement being the real reason Saddam was left in Baghdad and not removed until 2003, setting the trap of Iraq and the blaming of Bin Laden for 9/11. In the meantime Iran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program continued uninterrupted as it does to this day. Only recently has Moscow begun to withdraw some of its nuclear technicians from Bushehr, which Russia refuses to complete as long as Iran’s current government continues its preparations for offensive war.
This massive technological support, either official or unofficial, coupled with key industrial investments from European oil companies in France and Italy, that helped Iran’s oil industry in 1998-2000, meant in effect what the West -Russia had done was to sell their foreign policy to Tehran-Riyadh, which have been operating in tandem, as they prepare to remove the West’s influence from the affairs in the region. Beijing’s immense support of Iran’s nuclear – ballistic weaponry was not caused by the desire to see the region blow itself up or as an attempt to earn some extra revenue, but China wants to see if Iran and the Jihad can damage three of Beijing’s historical rivals, the West-India-Russia.
But during the last half of last year the Allies had to face the grim reality that Tehran had no intention of ending its nuclear program peacefully. The circuitous negotiations with the EU/UN, led nowhere as Tehran intended, giving Iran more time to increase its stockpile of nuclear warheads for its Shahab missile. The West must have also noticed the security agreement Tehran signed with Belgrade in January 2006 as Iran prepares to take advantage of the immensely stupid and regressive decision on the part of the European Union-Brussels to divide Yugoslavia, which has created another front, one that Iran is going to enter this summer in Tehran’s attempt to silence Vienna, the UN investigation into Iran’s nuclear weapons program. In the meantime Iran’s Defense Ministry has stated they will not let the U.S. attack first. Their announcement was made soon after U.S. President George W. Bush began discussing attacking Iran as an “option on the table”, after Saddam’s removal.
So as Moscow prepares to attack more heavily in the South Caucasus, against Tbilisi, which increased its relations with Tehran, Washington has sent carrier battle groups to the Persian Gulf. Russia may have timed its attack for right after the U. S. strike. Russia and the U. S. may have planned it this way. The carrier groups began to arrive on station last year as Tehran was conducting, all during 2006, a series of offensive military exercises and they have continued into this year. RIA reports, from one of its commentators Pyotr Goncharov the world is waiting for April 6 for the beginning of Washington’s attack, codenamed by the Pentagon Operation Bite. According to Goncharov the primary targets are: Natanz uranium enrichment facility, Isfahan nuclear research center, Araq heavy water plant and the Bushehr nuclear power plant, not yet completed and it is from here Moscow has been withdrawing Russian technicians. Also to be targeted will be Iran’s Air Force – Naval bases, air defense centers and command-control headquarters. [RIA]
In Tehran’s operational favor are the Allied forces being right off Iran’s coast within easy range of Iran’s Air and Naval units that can attack from different directions and levels at once.
Kuwait newspaper As-Siyasa also expects an attack by Washington this month. It reported Wednesday, based on unnamed Washington sources, the U.S. will only use air to surface missiles but not ground troops in order to avoid casualties. I suspect even if Washington were not so heavily engaged in Iraq, ground forces would still not be used against Iran, since Tehran can call upon literally millions of citizens armed and trained in various militia units, the Basij volunteer forces, besides Iran’s owned armed forces. This well armed, well trained national unity was formed as a result of the attack and invasion by Iraq in September 1980 that reunited Iran under the Ayatollah Khomeini after the coalition which initially overthrew the Shah had begun to fall apart. [RIA]
The eight year Iran/Iraq War 1980-88 forged the nationalistic, military-religious unity the world is now faced with. As crossfirewar.com has stated repeatedly only Russia is preparing to confront Iran directly and on the ground, through the Caucasus, this time through Georgia. But since Iran does not hate Russia, as much as the West-India, then Tehran’s effort against Moscow will be confined to supporting whatever Islamic units are left in the North Caucasus in Chechnya-Dagestan and in supplying Tbilisi’s effort. I suspect Iran knows they have enough for one year of offensive warfare, this being the year. Hopefully before this year is over Russia-Iran will enter into negotiations to end this war, but the West will still have to engage whatever units Iran has sent through the Balkans, its avenue of invasion into Europe.