Crossfire War – TOKYO – DUBAI – KUWAIT WATCH – Persian Gulf Theatre: Tokyo – Washington – Moscow – Canberra – Muscat – Doha – Bahrain – Riyadh – Kuwait – Dubai/Tehran; Japan Pm Visits Persian Gulf in Attempt to Guarantee Energy Life Lines – Japan Maritime Self – Defence Force Active in Region
Night Watch: DUBAI – In an attempt to guarantee the economic lifelines of Japan’s industrial economy, Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is currently making the first visit to the United Arab Emirates capital of Dubai, by a Japanese Prime Minister since 1978, the visit that year by Takeo Fukuda. The obvious reasons for Tokyo’s concern is Tehran. It was in late 2004, crossfirewar.com reported Tokyo’s response to Tehran’s announcement that Iran wanted China to become the main importer of Iranian oil and gas instead of Japan. Tehran made the announcement as an expression of its gratitude to Beijing’s for its massive role in Iran and the Islamic world’s nuclear-ballistic missile programs. Beijing did so knowing if Tehran and the Jihad were successful then three of Beijing’s rivals would become weaker: the West – India-Russia and it would also be more difficult for Japan to have access to mineral resources. [ASHARQALAWSAT]
With that economic reality in mind Tokyo changed its military policy from defensive to offensive almost the day after Tehran’s announcement. Since then, Tokyo has maintained extremely serious diplomatic contact with Tehran to such an extent Iran’s then Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi had to spend five days in Tokyo in an attempt to deceive Japan in early 2005. Japan of course, was advocating a peaceful resolution to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. However, when Japan realized a peaceful resolution was not going to happen, Tokyo pulled out of an Iranian Persian Gulf oil field and withdrew a $10 billion investment from Iran late last year.
Now, this trip by Japan’s Prime Minister is to not only Persian Gulf states but also to Cairo. In Dubai, Abe met not only Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan at the Al-Mashrif palace but he will also meet Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammad. The Prime Minister is being accompanied by a delegation of 180 Japanese businessmen who have been expressing their intention to invest and support the UAE’s effort to continue to become a more active international business-financial center, none of which is possible under a second Persian Empire.
Reservations about a second Persian Empire have probably been expressed by every Islamic capital from Rabat to Jakarta. Most of them, Cairo being the only exception, will support any of the Jihad’s initial successes against the main targets mentioned earlier, but I suspect they have all informed Tehran, as diplomatically as possible, initial Jihad successes are one thing, but a second Persian Empire is something quite different. Societies retain their character and everyone in the region remembers the first one. Persia has a tendency to be dictatorial and demanding economically, which is why I have constantly stated Israel is by no means Tehran’s main target because Israel is completely unimportant economically-no market for salt in the Dead Sea.
Tokyo is also aware of that which is why Abe will not be going to Israel. In Cairo, he will probably express his hope to President Hosni Mubarak if Egypt can keep the Suez Canal open and he knows Mubarak is surrounded by governments that support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum. After the initial Jihad successes this year, every Islamic capital working militarily with Tehran, including Islamabad will reduce their military cooperation with Iran.
As a more serious expression of Tokyo’s concern is the presence of Japan’s maritime Self – Defence Force in the United Arab Emirates. Tokyo has also been increasing its military-strategic dialogue with Moscow and Taipei. Taiwan also possesses a military that can operate internationally and they also realize the importance of economic lifelines. Tokyo is the leading ally in East Asia.