Crossfire War – Tehran – Beijing – Islamabad Watch – South Asia Theatre: Tehran – Beijing – Riyadh – Kabul – Tashkent – Dhaka – Nay Pyi Taw – Kathmandu – Islamabad/Srinagar – Delhi; India Pm Singh Holds Special Emergency Meeting on Kashmir Monday Night
Night Watch: DELHI – It was assumed the reason for the meeting was that it was held to discuss a possible phased troop withdrawal of India’s 500,000 troops in Kashmir, which have been positioned there since 1989, the first year of the Islamic uprising that has been actively supported by Tehran-Islamabad. But you don’t have regularly scheduled non-emergency meetings late at night. Based on recent reports, listed on crossfirewar.com, on intelligence information regarding meetings between Islamic militant groups and their plans to inflitrate into Kashmir to attack Srinagar and other targets in India’s part of the province later this month, the only conclusion I can come to is that India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh chaired a meeting in order to discuss measures Delhi has to take to counter the expected militant offensive and to realize it is probably a prelude to Islamabad-Tehran-Beijing-Riyadh entering the conflict.[KASHMIROBSERVER]
In attendence was: Defense Minister A K Antony, Army Chief General J J Singh and National Security Advisor M K Narayanan. The intelligence reports crossfirewar.com listed recently, on the planned infilitrations, were taken very seriously by India Director-General of Police in Jammu-Kashmir Gopal Sharma. He indicated there may be some doubts as to whether or not Delhi has enough security forces deployed in the province to meet any increase of fighting. The emergency meeting last night indicates Delhi may believe the 500,000 troops may not be enough. Last month A K Antony stated to reporters the possible withdrawal of troops depended on whether or not India’s neighbors discontinued their support of Islamic fighters infiltration. “It is my dream that the soldiers can go back to the barracks (in Kashmir). It is the dream of the government, but it depends on the situation on the ground.”
Developments late last year and earlier this year indicate the situation on the ground is about to experience full scale war that will involve more than just Islamic militants – Pakistan and India. In November Beijing’s Ambassador to Delhi, announced in an interview, that northeast India – Arunachal Pradesh province is Chinese territory, which is the same area China invaded India in 1962. Beijing followed up in December by conducting ground forces exercises with Islamabad just west of Kashmir. The same month Saudi Arabia-Pakistan held maneuvers in the eastern Punjab. February Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf presented his “Action Plan” to Tehran. Iran also sent a high level liaison military command staff to Islamabad recently saying they were just police officials.
Obviously there is nothing else to conclude but that Tehran-Beijing-Islamabad-Riyadh have completed their final preparations for a joint effort against Delhi that will also involve Islamic Jihad units across India’s border with Bangladesh. Antony is now saying, “At the appropriate time, we will review the situation. Whether tomorrow I can’t say. There have been several rounds of discussions. Everything depends on the emerging security scenario. The threat is still there. We don’t want to deploy the armed forces in Kashmir but what do we do? We have to protect ourselves against terrorism. Their (the security forces) working conditions are extremely difficult. We don’t want this situation to continue.” Antony responded to the question regarding Pakistan’s military government and their sincerity in the peace process negotiations, “Mere statements are not necessary. Action is needed.”
But I suspect, as regular readers of crossfirewar.com are aware, that the reason all the meetings between Islamabad/Delhi, even between senior foreign policy officials and heads of state for the past several years, have led nowhere and had no chance to, is due to Delhi’s non-negotiable position on Jammu-Kashmir. Though it is a province populated by a Muslim majority Delhi refuses to allow any negotiation that would lead to its independence or even to a state of autonomy within India under a joint administration.
That has been India’s constant position since 1947, inspired by the beliefs and tenets of Hindu nationalism. It was followers and adherents of those beliefs that had India’s independence and Hindu spiritual leader Mahatma Gandhi assassinated by a Hindu secret society in 1948 as he attempted to end the communal rioting between Hindus and Muslims. It is these same beliefs Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister warned India about shortly before his death in 1964, knowing that the extreme Hindutva influence promotes instability.
If any Indian head of state deviated from that established position they would also risk assassination. That’s just how intense the situation is. The same spiritual influence lead the BJP, Hindu nationalist party, to set off the nuclear bombs in 1998, near Pakistan’s border. The rise to prominence of the BJP, and they never made their nationalistic beliefs any secret, meant extremist Hindu beliefs had become popular. Manmohan Singh was recently accused by the BJP leader in Parliament as having already surrendered.
Of course Delhi says they are responding to attacks, but if their position had been less entrenched the Kashmir issue would have had more of a chance for a peaceful resolution. But I suspect the Prime Minister and his advisors Monday night were mainly discussing the revived, very serious threat from China. Beijing obviously sees a chance to use the next war to seize northeast India, Arunachal Pradesh and perhaps even further south to Assam state. My guess is Delhi will have an easier time if Islamabad experiences some successes, than if Beijing. Though the Pakistanis are Islamic they are still South Asian, a very similar culture to India. China is of course East Asian, extremely different and more hostile.