Crossfire War – Geneva – Berlin – Washington – Moscow Watch – South Caucasus Theatre: Geneva – Berlin – Washington – Moscow – Yerevan – Tskhinvili – Sukhumi/Tbilisi – Baku – Ankara – Tehran; Abkhazia FM States Negotiations to Resolve Dispute With Tbilisi Must Resume Before April – Geneva Acknowledges Moscow’s Position – Military Solution to End Kodori Gorge Standoff
Night Watch: GENEVA – Negotiations to resolve and end the military standoff in the Kodori Gorge, between Abkhazia and Georgia will not be conducted in an atmosphere of peace. RIA reports on Friday the Abkhazia Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba, stated in Moscow, “If Georgia begins implementing the UN Security Council Resolution before April then we are in favor of the resumption of the negotiating process.” He then added ominously talks must resume within a month to resolve the military standoff in the Kodori Gorge that began last July, where Tbilisi committed forces in an attempt to invade Abkhazia and end its secession from Georgia. Abkhazia seceded at the end of the Cold War in 1990 since most of its citizens identify with Russia. [RIA]
Tehran-Ankara sensed the standoff was another opportunity to support a government preparing for war against Moscow, as Iran-Turkey have supported Islamic fighters in Chechnya – Dagestan in the North Caucasus from 1994 to the present. Fighting has largely ended there but there are still occasional firefights. Now the action is about to move further south closer to Iran and in Geneva there was a meeting Friday involving representatives of: Germany-France-Britain-US in support of Russia’s position and its planned military attacks against Georgian units when negotiations don’t resume within a month.
The group that met is called the Group of Friends of Georgia (GFG) but they are no friends of the mentally unbalanced Georgia President Mikhail Saakhashvili and his close military cooperation with Iran-Turkey, a very real threat to Russia and the industrialized world’s access to raw materials in the Caucacus-Caspian region. Russia Foreign Ministry issued this statement after the Friday Geneva meeting, “Moscow assesses as positive the results of the GFG meeting held within the framework of the ‘Geneva Process’. We hope they will help overcome the pause in the Georgia-Abkhazia negotiating process and lead to tangible shifts in that direction.” The diplomats are privately aware the process they have approved is Russia’s military response to end the standoff.
The more convincing Moscow’s attacks are the more tangible will be the results and the securing of the strategic crossroads of energy pipelines and resources in the Caucasus-Caspian region, which is the deciding front in World War III. This is the year (f)allout fighting begins. Please keep in mind not all bombs and missiles, of any kind, conventional or unconventional are going to work. Industrial production is by no means faultless. Nothing works as well as advertised, some will miss and others will be duds, some of course will work. Regular readers of crossfirewar.com know last year Berlin-Washington have been increasing their involvement with Moscow’s military preparations. The same industrial concerns motivate all of them.
I assume Moscow will concentrate on military targets and on factories directly connected with Georgia’s military-industrial production.