Crossfire War – Tehran – Beirut – Damascus Watch – West Asia Theatre: Tehran – Riyadh – Ankara – Amman- Damascus – Beirut – Nahr al-Bared – Gaza/Jerusalem – Tripoli – Paris – Rome – Cairo; Countdown Summit Shifts From Damascus to Tehran – Hezbollah Leader States They Can Reach All of Israel – Action in Gaza
Night Watch: TEHRAN – Barely two days after Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad left Damascus, after his Countdown to (f)allout War Summit with Syrian President Bashar Assad, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah made his speech in Tehran where he announced Hezbollah has missiles that can reach all of Israel.
Tehran had him state Hezbollah could have done so last July and August but refrained from doing so. The real reason of course was Tehran was not quite ready to enter last year’s war as Iran just committed some Revolutionary Guard officers as advisers and observers. Tehran is now ready to put into the field all the planning and training with Damascus, Hezbollah and Palestinian radical groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. This is why Debka is reporting the meeting currently taking place in Tehran with the groups mentioned, meetings that should be completed before the middle of this week. Delegation of targets and attack schedule by every government and group represented, an extension of the meeting in Damascus. Not in Riyadh of course since the House of Saud’s support for the Jihad is more subtle as is the case of secretive Ankara. [DEBKA]
Nasrallah’s speech was recorded on Saturday and excerpts of it have already been aired on Al Jazeera’s Arabic channel. “In July and August (2006) there was no place in occupied Palestine which was out of the reach of the resistance missiles. Tel Aviv or elsewhere, we were certain that we could reach any corner or spot in occupied Palestine and now we are certain that we can reach them.”
Nasrallah also indicated Syria was prepared to enter the war then, if Israel had pressed its offensive in south Lebanon across the Litani river toward Beirut. I believe, however, Iran has convinced Syria this is Damascus’ chance to retake Lebanon from the sphere of influence of the West. It was created by France in 1920 and never accepted or officially recognized by Syria. [ALJAZEERA]
The European units in UNIFIL are between Israel and Hezbollah now, which will expand the range of Hezbollah’s targets. That is why Tehran has placed alongside Hezbollah new al-Qaeda units Tehran has established. They are specifically designed to attack UNIFIL and with Hezbollah’s new anti-aircraft and anti-ship cruise missiles, it enables Hezbollah to engage any air and naval retalitation that will come from European ships and aircraft. I assume Tehran is telling Damascus and Palestinian units right now where and when Iran will commit its expendable units, I suspect through Syria into the Golan Heights. A few years ago, during one of its military parades, Tehran had in formation an infantry unit of mullahs, students of the Quran, dedicated to martyrdom. I would guess Iran is saying at the planning session the thousands of short range Shahab-1 and 2 missiles they have will be launced at UK/US bases in Iraq. U.S. bases and ships in the Persian Gulf will of course also be attacked. I have always suspected Tehran wanted a number of fronts in the region to erupt simultaneously to reduce the chance of effective cooperation between the Allies.
Tehran may also tell Hezbollah and Palestinian groups they should have enough missiles to launch at Israel without Iran doing so. About a year ago one of Iran’s Friday prayer leaders indicated Iran will not launch any missiles at Israel unless Israel attacks Iran first, and with the thorough preparation provided for Hezbollah and Palestinian units they should definitely have enough to keep Jerusalem busy to the extent Israel may seriously have to consider using some of its nuclear arsenal. Major fighting this year will cause an enormous eruption of Islamic radicalism all over the region, especially in Egypt threatening President Hosni Mubarak, the last Islamic head of state still in a position to cooperate with the West. As soon as Iranian units go into action he will declare war on Iran, but he is surrounded by two governments that openly support the Jihad, Tripoli-Khartoum. Both of them, along with Tehran-Riyadh, will not only condemn Mubarak but support those who will overthrow him. Two weeks after the looting of Baghdad four years ago, after Saddam’s removal, Reuters mentioned a lot of it was sent to Tehran. Persia has a rapacious history. Imagine what Tehran can loot out of Cairo.
There has been action today already in Gaza with the firing of more Qassam missiles by Islamic Jihad causing Israel to respond with an air attack. Two Hamas gunmen were also killed in other action. What will take pressure off of Israel this year is Syria concentrating on Lebanon, UNIFIL being a major target, Egypt and UK/US forces and bases in the region. In addition to the economic nature of Tehran’s major offensives which are not planned to control the salt in the Dead Sea, but to use the Balkans as Iran’s avenue of invasion into Europe and to provide massive invasion assistance to Islamabad in support of Pakistan and the Muslims in Kashmir against India.