Crossfire War – Beijing – Nay Pyi Taw Watch – South-Southeast Asia Theatre: Beijing – Nay Pyi Taw – Riyadh – Kuala Lumpur – Dhaka – Tehran – Kabul – Islamabad/Delhi – Bangkok – Phnom Penh – Jakarta – Singapore – Canberra – Tokyo – Taipei – Hong Kong – Washington – Moscow; Day After Manipur Attack – Beijing Increases Military Cooperation with Burma (Myanmar) Military Dictatorship – Concentrated Moves in Southeast Asia
Night Watch: NAY PYI TAW – The day after the largest attack in India’s Manipur state, on Burma’s (Myanmar) western border, Beijing sent State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan to Nay Pyi Taw for a three day working visit. Nay Pyi Taw is the new, semi-secret capital for the country’s military dictatorship, which was voted out of office in 1990, but the generals controlling the country ignored the election and have suppressed the popular opposition, National League for Democracy ever since, especially its leader Aung San Suu Kyi. For reasons of state security, security of the military leaders, they have left Rangoon. [XINHUA]
Beijing knows that as a result of Pyongyang setting off the nuclear test last October, and with Moscow renewing its old influence in North Korea as a result, Beijing has disengaged from there and has increased its control over Myanmar, which is actually one of China’s provinces as had been North Korea since the end of the Cold War in 1990. With the attacks increasing last year in Assam province, in India’s northeast, and now with the major attack yesterday in Manipur, it is obvious Myanmar has now become one of the main bases for Tehran – Beijing to use for attacks against India and with the full cooperation of the military rulers in the Nay Pyi Taw.
Beijing had probably informed Tehran-Islamabad quite some time ago that Myanmar’s government was definitely available so they are now sending a State Councillor to make further arrangements that will increase the ability of separatist units to ambush India’s security forces in the area. The title state councillor is suspiciously ambiguous and can cover a variety of functions, which is why I suspect Tang Jiaxuan is in reality one of Beijing’s experts on the Southeast Asian region, not only on Myanmar and its support, but also on Thailand and its vulnerability to more attacks by Islamic units, attacks that may soon spread to Bangkok, and can weaken Bangkok’s role as a stable ally against Tehran-Beijing and their attempt to control Southeast Asia’s resources.
In Nay Pyi Taw, Jiaxuan will be meeting the First Secretary of the Myanmar Peace and Development Council, Lieutenant – General Thein Sein, director of the government’s command and control over the country. He is also the official Beijing is using to prepare Myanmar’s military to meet the inevitable military response by Delhi this year as the attacks in India’s northeast increase. What Beijing-Tehran intend, along with all the other governments in the South-Southeast Asia region they are working with, is to remove northeast India, all of Assam province and its states like Manipur, from Delhi’s control.
In Bangkok Jiaxuan will evaluate the effectiveness and seriousness of the measures Bangkok is making to reduce the impact of further attacks by Islamic separatists units in Thailand’s south. He will also investigate the strength of Bangkok’s current government and the possibility, if the attacks do reach Bangkok repeatedly, could that cause the removal of its government. Since Myanmar’s border runs south along Thailand’s boder, betweeen the Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Thailand, it is quite possible Myanmar could be another corridor for weapons to Islamic separatists group in southern Thailand. Mynamar’s southern extension is not that far from the four Thai provinces under attack as they have been for the past three years.
The attacks have caused Washington to establish an intelligence listening post in south Thailand shortly after the violence began. With Myanmar now becoming one of the more important bases for Tehran – Beijing, it will force the Allies to support armed groups which have long been opposed to the military dictatorship. Bangkok has long had contacts with a lot of those units, some of them having been in operation ever since Burma’s independence in 1948.