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Tropical System to Become Atlantic's First Hurricane of 2011?

By Alex Sosnowski, senior expert meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather.com reports a developing tropical system, destined to become Emily early this week, will threaten the Antilles first and could approach part of the U.S. coastline this weekend.

The strength of the system will likely determine its path and survivability in the days ahead.

The system has had some issues with dry air and wind shear over the weekend. It may have to negotiate 4,000-foot mountains on Puerto Rico or 10,000-foot mountains on Hispaniola later this week.

Graphic: Accuweather

According to Meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "A strong system is more likely to survive the trip through the rugged mountains of the Greater Antilles."

Most of our forecast tools are turning the system more to the northwest as the week progresses. Currently, it is moving on a westerly track aimed at the Caribbean.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "A strong system is more likely to curve and create its own environment, fighting wind shear and blocking high pressure systems."

Threat to the Antilles
Emily is likely to become a tropical storm by the middle of the week. However, even at this level or a weaker state, it brings threats to lives and property.

As it interacts with the islands of the Lesser Antilles, it will unleash localized torrential rain, which will lead to areas of flash flooding, mudslides and road washouts.

A couple of inches of rain could fall in less than an hour's time under some of the intense downpours the tropical system produces.

Downpours from mere tropical waves so far this season have caused problems with flooding in the Lesser Antilles, including the failure of a dam on Dominica.

Torrential rainfall is a possibility from the tropical system through the Windward and Leeward islands. By the time the system reaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, it could be packing a one-two punch with heavy rain and strong winds.

Indeed a hurricane making the northward cut through the area from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola could have serious consequences from flooding and damaging winds.

Concern for the U.S.
We have a long way to go with this system until it gets close to U.S. waters, but by this weekend, we could have a situation of concern.

According to the National Hurricane Center, while there have been many tropical storms that have made landfall along the Atlantic Seaboard of the U.S. in recent years, the last hurricane to hit that area was category 3 Jeanne in Florida during 2004.

Category 1 Gaston was the last hurricane to hit the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard north of Florida, during the same year. Earl hit Nova Scotia, Canada as a hurricane in 2010.

This system's path is still uncertain. However, we have every reason to believe it will reach at least tropical storm status and could even become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2011 before the week is over, in Caribbean waters.

If, and these are big if's at this point, the system does become strong enough to turn north and survive the trip through the Greater Antilles gauntlet, it could be drawn in close to Florida, cross Florida reaching the Gulf of Mexico, or it could even make a right turn up along the Atlantic Seaboard.

"Computer models probably will not have a good handle on the system until it gets stronger, hence the uncertainty at this point," Mancuso said.

"A relatively weak system, such as a tropical storm, could continue westward through the Caribbean," Mancuso added.

Look for this system to become Tropical Depression 5, or even Tropical Storm Emily, on or before Tuesday of this week.

Initially, heavy rain will be the problem. Strong winds, building seas and more heavy rain will follow as the system strengthens.