NewsBlaze search box Daily News header

Obama To Win Reelection in 2012, Based on Iowa Electronic Markets

Conservatives and Tea Party groups will not like this.

The Iowa Electronic Markets' 2012 presidential election prediction market has opened, and early trading gives President Barack Obama an edge in his re-election bid.

Last week, the Democratic contract was trading for 57.2 cents on the IEM's Winner Take All market, which means traders believe Obama has a 57.2 percent probability of being re-elected.

The GOP contract was selling for 42.7 cents, which means traders believe that the Republican Party's eventual nominee has a 42.7 percent probability of winning the 2012 general election.

The IEM is a real-money prediction market operated by researchers at the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business and is open for trading to the general public. The presidential election market opened July 1.

Payoffs are determined based on the popular election results of the 2012 general election. Contracts for the candidate who receives the most popular votes pay $1; losing contracts pay nothing. This payoff structure means that IEM prices reflect the probability of each candidate's winning the nomination.

The trading market, contract prospectuses and registration information can be found on the IEM 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Markets website at: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres12.html.

Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls, according to researchers.

Such markets, they say, have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.

  Please leave a comment here     If it does not display within 10 seconds, please refresh the page

* The views of Opinion writers do not necessarily reflect the views of NewsBlaze

Related Opinions News

Malcolm X was gunned down in front of his wife and daughters by members of the black Muslim group, The Nation of Islam, and they should pay for that.
The American dream may be the impossible dream for many first home buyers who are unable to raise a hefty downpayment to get started.
Hillary has a huge lead for the nomination of her party with Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont moving up. Is Al Gore considering a run himself?
How important do voters think presidential debates are? In 2012, with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, only 50 percent said at least somewhat important.
Will liberal judges uphold a 1967 ban on openly carrying loaded firearms enacted specifically to prevent Blacks and other minorities from openly carrying?
Donald Trump sent a letter to Randy Falco, saying his employees are banned from Trump properties after Univision cut ties with Miss Universe Organization

 

NewsBlaze Writers Of The Month


Popular Stories This Month

newsletter logo

NewsBlaze
Copyright © 2004-2014 NewsBlaze Pty. Ltd.
Use of this website is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy  | DMCA Notice               Press Room   |    Visit NewsBlaze Mobile Site