Daily News header

Obama To Win Reelection in 2012, Based on Iowa Electronic Markets

Conservatives and Tea Party groups will not like this.

The Iowa Electronic Markets' 2012 presidential election prediction market has opened, and early trading gives President Barack Obama an edge in his re-election bid.

Last week, the Democratic contract was trading for 57.2 cents on the IEM's Winner Take All market, which means traders believe Obama has a 57.2 percent probability of being re-elected.

The GOP contract was selling for 42.7 cents, which means traders believe that the Republican Party's eventual nominee has a 42.7 percent probability of winning the 2012 general election.

The IEM is a real-money prediction market operated by researchers at the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business and is open for trading to the general public. The presidential election market opened July 1.

Payoffs are determined based on the popular election results of the 2012 general election. Contracts for the candidate who receives the most popular votes pay $1; losing contracts pay nothing. This payoff structure means that IEM prices reflect the probability of each candidate's winning the nomination.

The trading market, contract prospectuses and registration information can be found on the IEM 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Markets website at: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres12.html.

Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls, according to researchers.

Such markets, they say, have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.

  Please leave a comment here     If it does not display within 10 seconds, please refresh the page

* The views of Opinion writers do not necessarily reflect the views of NewsBlaze

Related Opinions News

In parts of Europe - particularly in the countries of Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania - Christians bring their branches to church on Palm Sunday, though they do not carry palms.
call for the World Bank to end its destructive promotion of water privatization under the guise of development. After a week of meetings, including high level events on water, no action has been taken to address the coalition's concerns.
Your economic, intifada and isolation threats will give Israel that extra oxygen to thrive, to be more secured and bring about more economic stability; you push Israel the wrong way, you get an adjustment to plan B.
Blue state liberals voted away their freedoms, handing them over to smiling democrat politicians who told them what they wanted to hear.
Dwight L. Schwab Jr. reports that Democrat Senator Feinstein appears to be attacking the CIA for political purposes, knowing they cannot respond.
King Nazir Muhammad says African Americans should seek reparations, and he discovers who the real culprits are, and they need to pay for the harm they caused.

 

NewsBlaze Writers Of The Month



Popular Stories This Month

newsletter logo

NewsBlaze
Copyright © 2004-2014 NewsBlaze Pty. Ltd.
Use of this website is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy  | DMCA Notice               Press Room   |    Visit NewsBlaze Mobile Site