Daily News header

Obama To Win Reelection in 2012, Based on Iowa Electronic Markets

Conservatives and Tea Party groups will not like this.

The Iowa Electronic Markets' 2012 presidential election prediction market has opened, and early trading gives President Barack Obama an edge in his re-election bid.

Last week, the Democratic contract was trading for 57.2 cents on the IEM's Winner Take All market, which means traders believe Obama has a 57.2 percent probability of being re-elected.

The GOP contract was selling for 42.7 cents, which means traders believe that the Republican Party's eventual nominee has a 42.7 percent probability of winning the 2012 general election.

The IEM is a real-money prediction market operated by researchers at the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business and is open for trading to the general public. The presidential election market opened July 1.

Payoffs are determined based on the popular election results of the 2012 general election. Contracts for the candidate who receives the most popular votes pay $1; losing contracts pay nothing. This payoff structure means that IEM prices reflect the probability of each candidate's winning the nomination.

The trading market, contract prospectuses and registration information can be found on the IEM 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Markets website at: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres12.html.

Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls, according to researchers.

Such markets, they say, have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.

  Please leave a comment here     If it does not display within 10 seconds, please refresh the page

* The views of Opinion writers do not necessarily reflect the views of NewsBlaze

Related Opinions News

Corruption pervading religious assemblies is a despicable means for financial frauds, tax evasion, and society deviance that endangers even non-church goers.
Dark matter can't be seen, says Kevin Roeten, but the evidence says it is there, according to researchers using data from the orbiting Fermi Telescope.
It is not easy to live by the law when there is so much lawlessness in the world
King Nazir Muhammad looks at the state of the country and society that is in total chaos, because there is no structure and people don't care.
King Nazir Muhammad thinks cloning should be feared, the fantasy element should be takes out of it and see it for what it represents - rebirth.
I have listened to people say in our free society, whatever they do with their lives, if it's bad it hurts only them, so why should people care what they do. This basic fact exists, no one can do anything good or bad that doesn't affect others

 

NewsBlaze Writers Of The Month



Popular Stories This Month

newsletter logo

NewsBlaze
Copyright © 2004-2014 NewsBlaze Pty. Ltd.
Use of this website is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy  | DMCA Notice               Press Room   |    Visit NewsBlaze Mobile Site