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Research and Markets: Pakistan Autos Report Q3 2011 - Forecasts for FY10/11 Aggregate Sales and Production Are Still Considerably Below the High Watermark

During the first eight months of FY10/11 (July to February), 146,271 vehicles were produced in Pakistan, representing an increase of 9.2% y-o-y on the 133,918 units produced over the same period of FY09/10, according to figures from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA). This is made up of 85,924 units for passenger car production, 1,807 units truck production, 308 units bus production, 580 units jeep production, 12,000 units pick-up production and 45,652 units farm tractor production. Sales largely mirror production in Pakistan's auto market: the first eight months of FY10/11 saw a total of 143,785 new vehicles sold in the country, an increase of 7.1% y-o-y.

The continued moderate gains in sales and production during the first eight months of FY2010/11 are largely in line with the forecasts for the full fiscal year. Replicating the eight-month data across 12 months, total vehicle production would amount to 219,407 units, while total vehicle sales would register 215,678 units. This compares to the established forecast for the full fiscal year of just over 221,500 and just over 224,000 for production and sales respectively. These forecasts are therefore left unchanged.

However, these forecasts for FY10/11 aggregate sales and production are still considerably below the high watermark reached for both variables in FY07/08. Indeed, although FY10/11 and FY09/10 have seen reasonably strong growth in y-o-y terms for both sales and production volumes, the industry is still recovering from a disastrous year in FY08/09, which was blighted by the global economic downturn and severe internal political instability.

The long-term outlook for car sales and production in Pakistan is reasonably good, given that the country is developing from a low economic base and car ownership levels are still restricted to a very small (but expanding) minority of the population. However, the medium-term outlook - over the next year, at least - is constrained by anaemic consumer demand, resulting from recent interest rate hikes by the State Bank of Pakistan, which has made it more expensive for consumers to borrow money in order to finance the part purchase of new cars.

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0398d7/pakistan_autos_rep

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